Hypotheses Testing: Capital Flight and Human Development Index in Nigeria

This study examined Capital Flight and human development index in Nigerian. Capital Flight was proxied by foreign direct investment abroad, external debt servicing, external reserves and capital and financial account deficits. Based on the study objectives, relevant literature were reviewed and evaluated. Relevant data were extracted from the annual Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics. Unit root test was conducted using Augmented Dickey Fuller method which revealed that the variables were integrated at level and first difference: necessitating the use of autoregressive distributive lag/bonds test to explore the long run relationship existing among the variables in the model and the result showed that the variables in the model were co-integrated thus we proceeded in evaluating the long run as well as the co-integrating form in the model. From the result of the various tests, it was revealed that capital and financial account deficit, external debt servicing and external reserve were positively related to human development index while foreign direct investment outflows was negatively related to human development index. Also, capital and financial account deficit, external reserve and foreign direct investment outflow were significant while external debt servicing was not significant. Based on the findings from the analysis, the study recommended amongst others, that external debt acquired should be judiciously used for infrastructural development that would encourage investments which would ultimately bring about economic growth as well as enhance human development in Nigeria.

Capital Flight and Unemployment Rate in Nigeria

This study examined Capital Flight and unemployment rate in Nigeria. Capital flight was proxied by foreign direct investment abroad, external debt servicing, external reserves and capital and financial account deficits. Based on study objectives, relevant literatures were reviewed and evaluated. Relevant data were extracted from the annual Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics. Unit root test was conducted using Augmented Dickey Fuller method which revealed that the variables were integrated at level and first difference necessitating the use of autoregressive distributive lag/bond test to explore the long run relationship existing among the variables in the model and the result showed that the variables in the model were co-integrated thus we proceeded in evaluating the long run as well as the co-integrating form in the model. From the result of the various tests, it was revealed capital flight did not actually increase unemployment rate in Nigeria within the periods studied by the researchers. Based on the findings from the analysis, the study recommended amongst others, that external debt acquired should be judiciously used for infrastructural development that would encourage investments which would ultimately bring about economic growth as well as enhance human development in Nigeria.

PHYSICAL INVESTMENT FINANCING IN THE CZECH CORPORATE SECTOR

The aim of this article is to identify the structure of physical investment financing in the Czech corporate sector. The data used in the conducted analyzes are derived from national accounts and more specifically the two accounts included in the accumulation accounts, ie.: the capital account and financial account. The article uses the methodology of net sources of finance initially developed by C. Mayer. It uses the flow of funds rather than stock data.

Growth Recoveries (from Collapses)

This paper analyzes the behavior of a long list of economic variables during episodes of recovery from an economic collapse. A set of stylized facts is proposed so as to depict what in this work is called \saygrowth recoveries. Through different estimation techniques, it is inferred under which conditions and policies the likelihood of experiencing a growth recovery increases. The results of the paper indicate that collapses tend to occur in countries with high dependence on natural resource rents, macroeconomic mismanagement, low levels of democratic accountability and rule of law and high levels of conflict. Recoveries, on the other hand, tend to be longer than collapses and are more likely to occur in contexts of: improved external conditions, less natural resource rents, balanced fiscal accounts, where the exchange rate corrects but within a more fixed exchange rate regime and a more restricted financial account, and where there are: rebounds in private consumption, increases in international trade and improvements on property rights.

G20 and Global Risk Analysis

This article studies the work carried out by the Group of 20 (G20) between the global crises of 2008¬–09 and 2020. Active G20 efforts to ensure financial stability and control imbalances helped to mitigate vulnerabilities to crises of the 2008–09 type. Other key achievements included the transition of several G20 members to market-determined exchange rates and the Standard for Automatic Exchange of Financial Account Information as a part of the effort to combat base erosion and profit shifting. However, the G20 proved unprepared for the 2020 crisis, even though G20 leaders had noted the risks linked to infectious diseases in 2015. During the period between the crises, the G20 failed to establish an effective system for analyzing global risks. Indeed, its analysis was mainly adaptive as opposed to forward-looking; no mechanism was formed for controlling policies to manage risks. G20 members’ involvement in the analysis was inadequate, reflecting the consistent pattern of lower incentives for cooperation in the context of comparatively benign global economic conjunctures. Currently, however, the importance of managing global systemic risks is obvious and is reflected in the G20 Action Plan for supporting the global economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. This article presents recommendations for the key elements of this risk management (systematic identification of most probable/destructive vulnerabilities; development of strategies to minimize critical risks and mitigate their possible consequences; monitoring for early warning signs of the most critical vulnerabilities; organizing prompt consultations and adopting swift measures in response to the materialization of globally important risks), including mechanisms for members’ self-accountability and collaboration with international organizations. Management of systemic risks should start with resolving the challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic: improving public health response systems; promoting structural economic transformations while ensuring prompt return to full employment; and striking the right balance between economic stimulus and macroeconomic stability.

Abnormal Financial Transaction Detection via AI Technology

Financial supervision plays an important role in the construction of anti-corruption and honesty, but financial data has the characteristics of non-stationary, non-linearity, and low signal-to-noise ratio, and there is no special training set that is used to identify abnormal financial data. This paper generates time series of financial transaction data with a weekly time span, and selects the total transaction amount, transaction dispersion coefficient, and the number of transfers as the characteristics of financial account data. The features are then input in a weighted one-class support vector machine (WOC-SVM) model to determine whether the transaction is abnormal. The weighted one-class support vector machine (WOC-SVM) is learnt on a training set which consists of massive normal transaction due to the difficulty to collect abnormal transactions. The parameters in WOC-SVM are tuned by cross-validation. The experiments on simulation data demonstrate the effectiveness of the WOC-SVM model learnt on selected features to detect suspicious values.

INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC SPACE IMBALANCES ON THE FUNCTIONING OF THE ENTERPRISE FINANCIAL MECHANISM

The purpose of this article is to analyse the nature of imbalances in the economic space, as the problem of impact on the functioning of the financial mechanism of the enterprise is especially relevant for Ukraine, because the results of the domestic financial sector are unbalanced. At the same time, a significant impact is reflected in the functioning of the financial mechanism of the enterprise, expanding its functional load. The instability of economic conditions in Ukraine significantly affects the financial and economic activities of economic entities, which causes non-fulfilment of their planned tasks for the development of their own business. To ensure the successful operation, enterprises must assess the imbalances of the economic space, which are precursors to the development of crisis processes that can have a devastating effect. Methodology. In the course of the research it has been found that the financial mechanism of the enterprise is subject to influence both at the level of the enterprise itself and at the level of economic space. It is determined that the main source of information on the imbalance of the economic space is the balance of payments. Balance of payments is the ratio between the amount of cash received by the country from abroad and the amount of payments abroad during a certain period (year, quarter, month). The main component of the balance of payments is the current account, and the most important item is the balance of goods (trade balance). Its condition determines the state of the balance of payments as a whole, and its dynamics demonstrates the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy. The positive balance of trade indicates an increase in demand for goods and services of the country. The negative balance indicates the low competitiveness of the country’s goods abroad. In the case when the value of exports exceeds the value of imports, a trade surplus is formed. If the value of imports exceeds the value of exports, then there is a trade deficit. The financial account of the balance of payments reflects the sale and repayment of financial claims of one country to another. All financial transactions are classified into three groups: direct investment, portfolio investment, and other investments. The dynamics of the financial account during the study period is negative. This indicator was affected by the crisis in the economy, as well as imperfect legislative support for foreign investors in Ukraine. Results. Theoretical information and structure of the balance of payments are presented, balance of payments articles are analysed, the dynamics of the balance of payments of Ukraine is outlined. The main feature of 2015-2019 is the strengthening of globalization. The intensification of relations between the countries leads to a stronger integration of the whole economy, which in turn creates additional risks associated with the transmission of possible crises in the chain. Value/originality. It is established that the functioning of the financial mechanism of the enterprise is considered under the influence of many factors of the system, in particular economic space. The generation of these imbalances leads to an increase in the vulnerability of the financial mechanism, violating the stability, which is manifested in the inability to resist changes in the situation. By assessing the imbalances of the economic space on the basis of macroeconomic and monetary indicators obtained during the monitoring, economic entities will be able to counteract shocks in the event of a change in the situation.