Impact of external currency exposures on macroeconomic policies

2020 ◽  
pp. 23-40
Author(s):  
I. V. Prilepskiy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Panel Regressions ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Currency Exposure ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Impact

Based on cross-country panel regressions, the paper analyzes the impact of external currency exposures on monetary policy, exchange rate regime and capital controls. It is determined that positive net external position (which, e.g., is the case for Russia) is associated with a higher degree of monetary policy autonomy, i.e. the national key interest rate is less responsive to Fed/ECB policy and exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, the risks of cross-country synchronization of financial cycles are reduced, while central banks are able to place a larger emphasis on their price stability mandates. Significant positive impact of net external currency exposure on exchange rate flexibility and financial account liberalization is only found in the context of static models. This is probably due to the two-way links between incentives for external assets/liabilities accumulation and these macroeconomic policy tools.

Monetary Policy in the Conditions of Influence of Negative Factors of the World Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ольга Николайчук ◽  
Olga Nikolaychuk ◽  
Д. Кадырова ◽  
D. Kadyrova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Negative Factors

The article analyzes the monetary policy in the context of exogenous shocks of the external sector. The Bank of Russia and Rosstat use official statistics for 2000–2018. The parameters of the action of negative factors of the world economy apply the conditions of world trade and changes in the exchange rate of national currencies. The graphic form analyzes the susceptibility of macroeconomic indicators to changes in the external market and their dependence on fluctuations in energy prices. The influence of consumer prices and inflation on the monetary policy of the Central Bank is considered. The analysis allows us to conclude about the relationship of the effect of events from processes in the global market. It was concluded that, despite these risks, there are optimal ways of conducting monetary policy, which remain the targeting of inflation and the effect of the floating exchange rate regime of the national currency. For effective results in reducing the dependence of macroeconomic processes on the impact of external shocks, coordinated activities of all branches of economic power, and their effective macro-prudential and fiscal policies are important.

scholarly journals IMPACT EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION ON EXCHANGE RATE REGIME CHOICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Eka Putri Mayangsari
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Extensive Margin ◽  
Export Diversification ◽  
Intensive Margin ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Emerging And Developing Countries ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT The choice of exchange rate regime is the most relevant decision in the economic world that has to be faced by the economic authority until now. Exchange rate regime that is applied by one country become a controversial debate after the Asia’s crisis in the year 1997-1998, especially for developing countries and emerging economies in Asia. The purpose of this research is to see the impact of export diversification, intensive margin and extensive margin to the choice of the exchange rate regime in nine emerging and developing countries in Asia 1991-2014.This research uses the panel logistic regression model to analyze the two model that are used in the research; they are: model 1 (the impact of export diversification to the exchange rate regime),and model 2 (the impact of extensive margin and intensive margin to the exchange rate regime. To avoid and to lessen the chances of endogeneity problem therefore, all of the independent variables and the control variable must be lagged in one period.The results of the regression shows that export diversification have a significant positive impact on the exchange rate regime. When export diversification is decomposed into intensive margin and extensive margins, the result shows that the extensive margins also have a significant positive impact towards the exchange rate regime, while the intensive margin does not show any significant impact towards the exchange rate regime choice. Keywords: exchange rate regime, export diversification, intensive margin, extensive margin, emerging and developing countries in Asia. 

scholarly journals A Review of the Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks adopted by the BRICS countries (2000–2015)

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 202
Author(s):  
Themba Mbangata ◽  
Ogujiuba Kanayo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Social Inclusion ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Brics Countries

Recent development in the practice of macroeconomic policy has increased the importance of monetary and fiscal policy. Monetary policy within BRICS countries has shifted towards the setting of interest rates as the key monetary instrument, along with the adoption of inflation targets as key monetary policy objectives. It is well accepted that there is no one set of macroeconomic policies that guarantees sustained growth and development in the economy. However, the BRICS countries have been following a similar trend with regard to the exchange rate policy. This is shown by the fact that the BRICS countries have moved away from using a pegged exchange rate regime towards a managed floating exchange rate regime which is in contrast with the recommendations of the Washington Consensus. On the fiscal side, the BRICS countries agreed to spend only what is necessary in order to avoid the ballooning local government debt. Summarily, the BRICS countries have performed well economically and socially although there are still some room for improvement. However, there are still other BRICS members who have government debt that are well above half of their Gross Domestic Product. Alignment of policy regimes would strengthen the macroeconomic base of the BRICS. It is recommended that all BRICS members need prioritise inclusive governance that would checkmate social ills such as poverty, inequality and unemployment, while promoting social inclusion.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Convergence within the EAC: A Focus on Interest Rate and Exchange Rate

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. p49
Author(s):  
Michael Oloo ◽  
Mary Mbithi ◽  
Daniel Abala
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Common Trade ◽  
The Impact

This study was conducted to establish whether the key variables in monetary policy transmission mechanisms are converging within the East African Community. This region is eyeing having an economic union and subsequently a monetary union hence the significance of investing developments in the monetary sector. The analysis used panel data from the year 2005 to 2020 for five EACs. To test for convergence of interest rates and exchange rates, the analysis employed; unit-root test, sigma convergence, co-integration tests, and finally used the panel fixed effect model to establish the impact of the two variables on the GDP. The analysis shows that in the short run, there is no convergence in interest rates but there is convergence in exchange rates. However, in the long run, the two monetary policy variables are co-integrated indicating that the region is doing well in terms of integration in the financial sector in their preparation to form a common trade area and monetary union. The analysis of the impact of the two variables on economic growth shows that only the exchange rate is significant, therefore, the region should strive to foster a stable exchange rate regime to realize increased economic growth.

scholarly journals A Review of the Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks adopted by the BRICS countries (2000-2015)

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3(J)) ◽  
pp. 202-211
Author(s):  
Themba Mbangata ◽  
Ogujiuba Kanayo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Social Inclusion ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Brics Countries

Recent development in the practice of macroeconomic policy has increased the importance of monetary and fiscal policy. Monetary policy within BRICS countries has shifted towards the setting of interest rates as the key monetary instrument, along with the adoption of inflation targets as key monetary policy objectives. It is well accepted that there is no one set of macroeconomic policies that guarantees sustained growth and development in the economy. However, the BRICS countries have been following a similar trend with regard to the exchange rate policy. This is shown by the fact that the BRICS countries have moved away from using a pegged exchange rate regime towards a managed floating exchange rate regime which is in contrast with the recommendations of the Washington Consensus. On the fiscal side, the BRICS countries agreed to spend only what is necessary in order to avoid the ballooning local government debt. Summarily, the BRICS countries have performed well economically and socially although there are still some room for improvement. However, there are still other BRICS members who have government debt that are well above half of their Gross Domestic Product. Alignment of policy regimes would strengthen the macroeconomic base of the BRICS. It is recommended that all BRICS members need prioritise inclusive governance that would checkmate social ills such as poverty, inequality and unemployment, while promoting social inclusion.

scholarly journals Impact of Capital Movements on Sterilization and Monetary Policies in Pakistan: Evidence from Multiple Specifications

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Gul Khushik ◽  
Shabir Mohsin Hashmi ◽  
Erum Khushnood Zahid Shaikh
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Capital Movements ◽  
Float Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims at evaluating the effectiveness of central bank of Pakistan’s sterilization policy to neutralize the impact of capital movements on domestic monetary conditions. We also estimate how the sterilization efforts are frustrated/offset by fresh capital inflows. Sterilization coefficient and offset coefficients are estimated through Monetary Policy Reaction Function and Capital Flow Equation respectively. To check robustness of our results, we apply three different econometric techniques including Vector Error Correction Method, Two Staged Least Squares and Generalized Method of Moments. Using monthly data, we use one full sample: from 1982M1 to 2018M12 and two subsamples: i.e. from 1982M1 to 2001M09 and from 2001M10 to 2018M12. The results from the two equations from all specifications show that sterilization coefficients are relatively smaller than the offset coefficients implying that it is difficult for Pakistan to sterilize the impact of foreign capital inflows on domestic money base. Larger offset coefficients, on the other hand, particularly for the second subsample, indicate that Pakistan cannot conduct independent monetary policy under the free float exchange rate regime adopted in 2000. Our results from both equations are robust to all specifications and for all samples and subsamples. Major implication of our finding is that Pakistan cannot conduct independent monetary policy in after resorting to free float exchange rate regime.   

The influence of inflation targeting on the pass-through effect of the exchange rate

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
Yu. I. Yakimova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

The paper studies the impact of the transition to the inflation targeting regime on the magnitude of the pass-through effect of the exchange rate to prices. We analyze cross-country panel data on developed and developing countries. It is shown that the transition to this regime of monetary policy contributes to a significant reduction in both the short- and long-term pass-through effects. This decline is stronger in developing countries. We identify the main channels that ensure the influence of the monetary policy regime on the pass-through effect, and examine their performance. In addition, we analyze the data of time series for Russia. It was concluded that even there the transition to inflation targeting led to a decrease in the dependence of the level of inflation on fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate.

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