Revolts

This chapter considers intraparty revolts: races in which an incumbent is challenged in his bid to keep his leadership post. Although such races are uncommon and seldom successful, they often reveal important divisions within the congressional party and can be a harbinger of future changes to party leadership. Cases examined in this chapter include three Republicans who ran against Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-TX) in 1998, Gerald Ford's (R-MI) successful challenge against minority leader Charlie Halleck (R-IN) in 1965, Morris Udall's effort to defeat incumbent Speaker John McCormack in 1969, and intraparty votes cast on the floor against John Boehner for Speaker of the House in 2013.

Ryan speakership is unlikely to unify US Republicans

Significance Ryan's predecessor, John Boehner, was driven to resign by hardliner members of the House Republican Conference. Party disunity during the Boehner speakership led to legislative gridlock, political brinkmanship and repeated threats of a government shutdown, which occurred in October 2013. A majority of voters blamed the Republicans for the 2013 shutdown and the federal elections in 2016 add a degree of urgency to Ryan's unifying mission in the House. Impacts Ryan will lose political capital in negotiations ahead of the December 11 government shutdown deadline. Inaction on immigration reform in Congress will boost Democrats in the 2016 elections with the Latino vote. Republicans do not seek a greater US role in Syria and Iraq, and will limit themselves to criticism of the White House.

US weapons to Ukraine would turn Donbas into proxy war

Significance However, fears continue that the separatist withdrawal is an opportunity for them to reorganise their forces in preparation for an assault on Mariupol. Poroshenko said that since the Minsk 2.0 ceasefire came into effect 64 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. On March 5, Speaker of the US House of Representatives John Boehner sent a letter to President Barack Obama, urging the president to send lethal defensive weaponry to help Ukraine's military. Boehner reminded Obama that he had been given the powers to aid Kyiv through the Ukraine Freedom Support Act but so far Obama has not provided lethal defensive military aid. Impacts US will struggle to stop lethal military aid reaching Ukrainian volunteer battalions, some of them accused of human rights abuses. Western aid will likely remain non-lethal (radar and intelligence support) rather than lethal weaponry. White House-Congress relations are dire and Obama will be unmoved by congressional pressure.

Editor's Introduction

On December 1, 2010, a spokesperson for Rep. John Boehner, the leader of the incoming House Republican majority, declared that the Republicans will dissolve the House Select Committee on Global Warming, established in 2007 to provide a forum for discussion of climate change issues. Boehner, like most of the Republican leadership, has long denied the urgency of climate change. In April 2009, as a guest on ABC's “This Week with George Stephanopoulos,” he notoriously compared carbon dioxide emissions to cow flatulence, asserting: “George, the idea that carbon dioxide is a carcinogen that is harmful to our environment is almost comical. Every time we exhale, we exhale carbon dioxide. Every cow in the world, you know, when they do what they do, you've got more carbon dioxide.”