Firm-level attributes of inflationary expectations of entrepreneurs: evidence from the Pakistan economy

PurposeThe purpose of this research is to bring upfront some unconventional attributes of inflationary expectations of entrepreneurs. Firm-level attributes are instrumental in shaping the behavior of entrepreneurs, which affect the way in which they form their expectations regarding some key economic variables, like inflation. Inflationary expectations are considered important based on their significant role in affecting decisions taken by individuals, firms and policy makers. Among all economic segments, it is vital to account the inflationary expectations of entrepreneurs representing firms because their decisions critically define the future path of actual inflation and inflation inertia. This basic purpose of this paper is to offer a deterministic framework for these expectations contingent upon the firm-level attributes.Design/methodology/approachThis paper provides survey-based evidence on inflationary expectations of entrepreneurs of the selected manufacturing, trading and service sector firms from Pakistan. Additionally, the study has focused on identifying some firm-level attributes, including market experience of the firm, scale of production, myopia in price setting behavior, forward and backward-looking behavior, rationality of the entrepreneur and the entrepreneur's relative firm-level experience as determinants of these expectations. The specified variables are constructed based on responses captured through a structured questionnaire.FindingsWithin an ordinal logistic framework, the study finds that the said attributes including market experience of the firm, scale of production, myopic tendency of entrepreneur in price setting, forward and backward-looking behavior, rationality of the entrepreneur and the entrepreneur's relative firm-level experience play a pivotal role in explaining differentials and heterogeneity in reported level of inflationary expectations.Originality/valueThe study brings upfront some unconventional attributes of inflationary expectations at entrepreneurial level. The work is unique in a sense that it provokes researchers to account behavioral and individualistic attributes within a deterministic framework for inflationary expectations.

Credibility Dynamics and Disinflation Plans

We study the optimal design of a disinflation plan by a planner who lacks commitment. Having announced a plan, the Central banker faces a tradeoff between surprise inflation and building reputation, defined as the private sector's belief that the Central bank is committed to the plan. Some plans are harder to sustain: the planner recognizes that paving out future grounds with temptation leads the way for a negative drift of reputation in equilibrium. Plans that successfully create low inflationary expectations balance promises of lower inflation with dynamic incentives that make them more credible. When announcing the disinflation plan, the planner takes into account these anticipated interactions. We find that, even in the zero reputation limit, a gradual disinflation is preferred despite the absence of inflation inertia in the private economy.

A SECOND-GENERATION STRUCTURALIST TRANSFORMATION PROBLEM: THE RISE OF THE INERTIAL INFLATION HYPOTHESIS

The paper analyzes the rise of the Latin American-based inertial inflation theory. Starting in the 1950s, various traditions in economics purported to explain the concept of “inflation inertia.” Contributions ranging from Celso Furtado and Mário Henrique Simonsen to James Tobin anticipated key aspects of what later became the inertial inflation hypothesis, building it into either mathematical or conceptual frameworks compatible with the then contemporaneous macroeconomic theory. In doing so, they bridged the analytical gap with the North American developments while maintaining the key features of the CEPAL (United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) approach, such as distributional conflicts and local institutional details. These contributions eventually influenced the second moment of the monetarist–structuralist controversy that unraveled in the 1980s. The paper also highlights how later works by structuralist economists gradually stripped the inertial inflation approach of its previous substance and form, thereby unearthing tensions among Latin American structuralists that led to the eventual decline of this research program.

Journal of the History of Economic Thought Preprints – A SECOND-GENERATION STRUCTURALIST TRANSFORMATION PROBLEM: THE RISE OF THE INERTIAL INFLATION HYPOTHESIS

The paper analyzes the rise of the Latin American-based inertial inflation theory. Starting in the 1950s, various traditions in economics purported to explain the concept of “inflation inertia”. Contributions ranging from Celso Furtado and M.H. Simonsen to James Tobin anticipated key aspects of what later became the inertial inflation hypothesis, building it into either mathematical or conceptual frameworks compatible with the then contemporaneous macroeconomic theory. In doing so, they bridged the analytical gap with the North-American developments whilst maintaining the key features of the CEPAL approach, such as distributional conflicts and local institutional details. These contributions eventually influenced the second moment of the monetarist-structuralist controversy that unraveled in the 1980s. The paper also highlights how later works by structuralist economists gradually stripped the inertial inflation approach of its previous substance and form, thereby unearthing tensions among Latin-American structuralists that led to the eventual decline of this research program.

Inflation Inertia and Inflation Persistence in Romania Using a DSGE Approach

The main purpose of this chapter is to investigate monetary policy dynamics, as well as the inflation inertia and inflation persistence in Romania using a DSGE approach. The empirical findings revealed that the price evolution reflects the difficulties of eliminating the inflation inertia. Moreover, in Romania, the historic inflation evolution has a significant influence in terms of inflation expectation patterns. Inflation is a negative phenomenon with dramatic consequences for Romania's economic development on long term.

OPTIMAL INFLATION TARGETING RULE UNDER POSITIVE HAZARD FUNCTIONS FOR PRICE CHANGES

This paper reconsiders optimal inflation targeting in a model where persistence is generated by rational choices of the price makers because of a time-dependent pricing mechanism. In this framework, which generalizes the traditional Calvo model, inflation persistence is intrinsic, as it is micro-founded assuming that firms' pricing decisions depend on the time elapsed from the last price reset. We use a linear–quadratic approach to study the welfare effects and optimal policies. We disentangled two distortion sources showing how welfare falls in both the average of the probability of changing prices and its distribution among different firms. Described the underlying distortions of our setup, we analyze its normative implications for optimal inflation. The issues of uncertainty and robustness are also considered: By using robust control techniques, we, in fact, consider the consequences of implementing a “wrong” monetary rule due to a misinterpretation of sources of inflation inertia.