The Structure of Municipal Voting in Vancouver

We offer a new interpretation of the structure of municipal electoral competition in Vancouver, focusing on the city’s high-profile municipal election in 2018. Using novel “cast vote records” – a dataset containing each of the 176,450 ballots cast in the city’s municipal election – we use a Bayesian multidimensional scaling procedure to estimate the location of every 2018 candidate and voter in Vancouver in a shared two-dimensional political space. We then match observed votes from the cast vote records to survey responses in the Canadian Municipal Election Study (CMES), a large election survey undertaken in Vancouver in 2018, using 96 CMES variables to interpret our two measured dimensions of electoral competition. We find evidence of a single primary dimension of competition, structured by left-right ideology, along with a secondary dimension dividing establishment from upstart parties of the right. Our paper supplies a new interpretation of Vancouver’s electoral landscape, clarifies our understanding of the role of left-right ideology in municipal electoral competition, and demonstrates the promise of cast vote records for research on municipal elections and voting.

Levels of Conceptualization and Municipal Politics: Replication in a New Context

Since Angus Campbell and colleagues introduced the Levels of Conceptualization (LoC) framework as a measure of political sophistication, only a very small number of scholars have applied this approach to understanding how electors view political actors. In 2008, Michael Lewis-Beck and colleagues replicated this foundational study and found similar results using much more recent data on American national elections. In this brief research report, we replicate the work of Lewis-Beck and colleagues in the Canadian municipal context. Using survey data from the Canadian Municipal Election Study, we make use of open-ended responses about attitudes towards mayoral candidates to conduct a qualitative examination of the manner in which survey respondents from eight Canadian cities view mayoral candidates. Despite the relative dearth of ideological cues at the local level, we nevertheless find that a noteworthy portion of the electorate views candidates in ideological terms. Like previous work on the subject, we find that high levels of conceptualization are positively associated with turnout, education, political knowledge, and ‘political involvement’.

Conceptualizing Municipal Elections: The Case of Toronto 2018

Since Angus Campbell and colleagues first introduced the “levels of conceptualization” (LoC) framework as a measure of political sophistication, a number of scholars have applied the approach to subsequent American national elections. In this study, we present the first application of the LoC framework to a municipal election, and focus upon the 2018 Toronto mayoral race. After describing the method and data we use to adapt the framework to this new context, we replicate previous analyses, and find that LoC is related to local voter turnout and several measures of political sophistication. We then consider the question of whether major candidates were discussed at different LoC, and if their supporters view local politics at different LoC. We conclude by making the case that the LoC framework is helpful for resolving the debate over whether local politics are ideological or managerial in nature.

Public Opinion Towards Provincial Powers Over Municipalities: The Case of Toronto

This paper will analyze the case of redistricting in Toronto using data collected from the 2018 Canadian Municipal Election Study (CMES, n.d). The analysis will explore Torontonian public opinion using multivariate regression analysis in the following areas: support for provincial control over municipal matters in general, and support for the provincially imposed ward redistricting in 2018. Specifically, five central hypotheses will be tested through a series of ordered logistic regression models to determine the correlates of support for the exercise of provincial powers over municipalities and support for such powers using the recent redistricting in Toronto as a case study.

Public Opinion Towards Provincial Powers Over Municipalities: The Case of Toronto

This paper will analyze the case of redistricting in Toronto using data collected from the 2018 Canadian Municipal Election Study (CMES, n.d). The analysis will explore Torontonian public opinion using multivariate regression analysis in the following areas: support for provincial control over municipal matters in general, and support for the provincially imposed ward redistricting in 2018. Specifically, five central hypotheses will be tested through a series of ordered logistic regression models to determine the correlates of support for the exercise of provincial powers over municipalities and support for such powers using the recent redistricting in Toronto as a case study.

A New Tunnel Effect? The Impact of Stress on Vote Choice

The literature shows a link between stress and voter turnout, but does stress influence vote choice as well? What would explain such a relationship? Using a survey of Quebec (Canada) voters conducted during the 2017 municipal election (n = 1,130), we show that 1) there is a relationship between stress and vote choice, and 2) voters who consider road congestion to be an important issue and who report being stressed tend to vote for the party that has taken a stand in favor of highway projects and against public transit. While many studies show an association between road congestion and the psychological health of individuals, our research invites us to consider the political impacts of such a relationship.

Toronto's 2018 Municipal Election, Rights of Democratic Participation, and Section 2(b) of the Charter

In 2018, the City of Toronto’s municipal election overlapped with a provincial election that brought a new government to office. While the municipal election ran for a protracted period from May 1 to October 22, the provincial election began on May 9 and ended about four weeks later, on June 7.1 On July 27, after only a few weeks in office, the provincial government tabled the Better Local Government Act (BLGA) and proclaimed the Bill into law on August 14.2 The BLGA reduced Toronto City Council from 47 to 25 wards and reset the electoral process, mandating that the election proceed under a different concept of representation for City Council.3