Rainfall prediction over Ambon Meteorological Station using Multi-Physics Ensemble WRF-ARW

One of the methods to create good forecast using WRF-ARW modelling is tuning the parameterization. However, this method cannot provide rainfall event probability. Current research result revealed that it was able to simulate and forecast some weather parameters. However, based on the verification results, there were some weather parameters which still had low accuracy. Due to such low accuracy on some weather parameters, the authors were interested in performing post-processing methods in forecasting the weather during extreme weather at Pattimura Ambon Meteorological Station. In this study, we employed multi-physics ensemble prediction system (MEPS) by combining 20 WRF-ARW parameterization schemas, which were processed to obtain the ensemble mean, ensemble spread, and basic probability to get the uncertainty from each weather parameters. Verification process was done by using spreads, skill method and ROC curves. It was discovered that MEPS products have a better skill compared to the forecast control, the correlation value of MEPS products is larger and has the lowest error value. In addition, the result of ROC curves shows that the MEPS has an ability to predict weather condition during cloudy and extreme rain.

Technology Innovations of the Flow Assurance System in the Development of the Liwan 3-1 Deepwater Gas Field

As we know, the Liwan3-1 gas field is the first deepwater gas field with water depth 1480m in the Southern China Sea. The seabed temperature is only 3–4 °C. Moreover, the complex of the gas oil and water multiphase flow, seabed hypsographic feature and operation activities etc., bring a series of problems to subsea transportation system, such as solid formation (hydrate, wax), severe slug flow in deep water riser, multiphase flow corrosions and solid particle’s erosion etc. This paper briefly summarizes the typical flow assurance innovation technologies related to the Liwan3-1 gas field, include the layout of Liwan3-1 deepwater subsea production system, the dual-pipe 79km-length subsea tied back system design, the hydrate forecast and control technology, slug forecast-control and pigging method for the subsea tied back system along the slope, the gas recycle system design for low production rate. Also, the potential gas field development and flow management technologies are also discussed in this paper.