Drug offence detection during the pandemic: a spatiotemporal study of drug markets

Research on COVID-19 and crime has so far shown that most crime types declined, especially in the early months of the pandemic. Illicit drug offences were a notable exception, however few studies have considered changes at specific drug market locations. This study documents how key drug markets were affected during the lockdown. Using a spatiotemporal generalised additive model (GAM), this study examines the pattern of drug offence detection throughout the city of Brisbane, Australia and identifies areas of change during lockdown. Statistical meshblock analysis is used to illustrate discrete changes at key market locations. Contrary to aggregate-level analysis, we show that several of the major drug markets experienced a significant decline in drug offence detections, but that these local changes were offset by a displacement to neighbouring areas. We also find some preliminary evidence of the emergence of new outer-urban markets. Existing drug markets were adversely affected by the COVID-19 lockdown, however drug market activity was likely displaced rather than diminished.

Drug offence detection during the COVID-19 lockdown: a spatiotemporal study of change in a street-level drug market

The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent introduction of strict government orders to `stay-at-home' has led to a significant decline in most crime types--except, notably, illicit drug detections. However, the impact of these restrictions on open-air, or street-level, drug markets has been neglected in the study of COVID-19. In this paper, we use data from the state of Queensland, Australia, to explore how COVID-19 restrictions may have impacted the open-air drug market of Fortitude Valley in Brisbane. Using a spatiotemporal generalised additive model (GAM), we find that drug detections did not change in the Fortitude Valley region (despite significant increases across the whole state) but that this finding masked considerable reductions in and around the Fortitude Valley train station as well as in the vicinity Brunswick Street mall. It seems that any COVID-19-related decrease appears to have been offset by increases elsewhere, particularly to the streets north and south west of the main street market. These results highlight the limitations of city-wide aggregate analyses of crime during the pandemic and highlights the need for future research, including with qualitative and ethnographic methods to better understand the lived experiences of drug sellers/users and the law enforcement officers who policed these areas.

Drug markets and COVID-19: A spatiotemporal study of drug offence detection rates in Brisbane, Australia

In many parts of the world, the social mobility restrictions and stay-at-home orders introduced during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic have been associated with significant reductions in crime. However, contrary to this general finding, illicit drug offence detections increased significantly. In this study, we explore the geographical distribution of the increase in Queensland, Australia, using spatiotemporal generalised additive model (GAM) to identify locations in the Local Government Area (LGA) of Brisbane where drug offence detection rates were unusually high during the three months of the COVID-19 lockdown (April-June 2020). Contrary to expectation, we find that the increase in drug offence detection rates appears to have been modest in most places, but widespread and diffuse throughout the city. We conclude that drug offence detections are most likely to have increased incidentally, probably as a consequence of general street policing initiatives which saw an increase in the visibility and vulnerability of drug user communities. We do, however, identify five locations in Brisbane where the drug offence detection rate exceeded the prediction by a considerable margin (in one case, more than double the worst case prediction). We argue that in these locations the increase was likely the result of some spatial displacement of inner-city drug markets coupled with a series of targeted policing activities. Further research is needed to clarify the true mechanism of change in these locations.