scholarly journals DRUG MARKETS AND COVID-19: A SPATIOTEMPORAL STUDY OF DRUG OFFENCE DETECTION RATES IN BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 103561
Author(s):  
Jason L. Payne ◽  
Cameron T. Langfield
Keyword(s):  
Drug Markets ◽  
Detection Rates ◽  
Drug Offence

scholarly journals Drug markets and COVID-19: A spatiotemporal study of drug offence detection rates in Brisbane, Australia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Leslie Payne ◽  
Cameron Thomas Langfield
Keyword(s):  
Illicit Drug ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Drug Markets ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Detection Rates ◽  
Generalised Additive Model ◽  
Drug Offence ◽  
The Social ◽  
User Communities ◽  
The City

In many parts of the world, the social mobility restrictions and stay-at-home orders introduced during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic have been associated with significant reductions in crime. However, contrary to this general finding, illicit drug offence detections increased significantly. In this study, we explore the geographical distribution of the increase in Queensland, Australia, using spatiotemporal generalised additive model (GAM) to identify locations in the Local Government Area (LGA) of Brisbane where drug offence detection rates were unusually high during the three months of the COVID-19 lockdown (April-June 2020). Contrary to expectation, we find that the increase in drug offence detection rates appears to have been modest in most places, but widespread and diffuse throughout the city. We conclude that drug offence detections are most likely to have increased incidentally, probably as a consequence of general street policing initiatives which saw an increase in the visibility and vulnerability of drug user communities. We do, however, identify five locations in Brisbane where the drug offence detection rate exceeded the prediction by a considerable margin (in one case, more than double the worst case prediction). We argue that in these locations the increase was likely the result of some spatial displacement of inner-city drug markets coupled with a series of targeted policing activities. Further research is needed to clarify the true mechanism of change in these locations.

scholarly journals Drug offence detection during the pandemic: a spatiotemporal study of drug markets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason Leslie Payne ◽  
Cameron Thomas Langfield
Keyword(s):  
Additive Model ◽  
Drug Market ◽  
Preliminary Evidence ◽  
Drug Markets ◽  
Generalised Additive Model ◽  
Urban Markets ◽  
Drug Offence ◽  
Crime Types ◽  
The City ◽  
Major Drug

Research on COVID-19 and crime has so far shown that most crime types declined, especially in the early months of the pandemic. Illicit drug offences were a notable exception, however few studies have considered changes at specific drug market locations. This study documents how key drug markets were affected during the lockdown. Using a spatiotemporal generalised additive model (GAM), this study examines the pattern of drug offence detection throughout the city of Brisbane, Australia and identifies areas of change during lockdown. Statistical meshblock analysis is used to illustrate discrete changes at key market locations. Contrary to aggregate-level analysis, we show that several of the major drug markets experienced a significant decline in drug offence detections, but that these local changes were offset by a displacement to neighbouring areas. We also find some preliminary evidence of the emergence of new outer-urban markets. Existing drug markets were adversely affected by the COVID-19 lockdown, however drug market activity was likely displaced rather than diminished.

Tackling prison drug markets: An exploratory qualitative study

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa Penfold ◽  
Paul J. Turnbull ◽  
Russell Webster
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Study ◽  
Drug Markets

Predicting Fetal Chromosome Anomalies in the First Trimester Using Pregnancy Associated Plasma Protein-A: A Comparison of Statistical Methods

1993 ◽  
Vol 32 (02) ◽  
pp. 175-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Brambati ◽  
T. Chard ◽  
J. G. Grudzinskas ◽  
M. C. M. Macintosh
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
General Population ◽  
Likelihood Ratio ◽  
False Positive ◽  
False Positive Rate ◽  
Ratio Method ◽  
Detection Rates ◽  
Gaussian Distributions ◽  
Positive Rate ◽  
Likelihood Ratio Method

Abstract:The analysis of the clinical efficiency of a biochemical parameter in the prediction of chromosome anomalies is described, using a database of 475 cases including 30 abnormalities. A comparison was made of two different approaches to the statistical analysis: the use of Gaussian frequency distributions and likelihood ratios, and logistic regression. Both methods computed that for a 5% false-positive rate approximately 60% of anomalies are detected on the basis of maternal age and serum PAPP-A. The logistic regression analysis is appropriate where the outcome variable (chromosome anomaly) is binary and the detection rates refer to the original data only. The likelihood ratio method is used to predict the outcome in the general population. The latter method depends on the data or some transformation of the data fitting a known frequency distribution (Gaussian in this case). The precision of the predicted detection rates is limited by the small sample of abnormals (30 cases). Varying the means and standard deviations (to the limits of their 95% confidence intervals) of the fitted log Gaussian distributions resulted in a detection rate varying between 42% and 79% for a 5% false-positive rate. Thus, although the likelihood ratio method is potentially the better method in determining the usefulness of a test in the general population, larger numbers of abnormal cases are required to stabilise the means and standard deviations of the fitted log Gaussian distributions.

Opportunistic Colorectal Cancer Screening using Colonoscopy. Comparative Results between two Historical Cohorts in Bucharest, Romania

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Mirela Ionescu ◽  
Tudor Nicolaie ◽  
Serban Ion Gologan ◽  
Ana Mocanu ◽  
Cristina Ditescu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Screening Program ◽  
Advanced Adenoma ◽  
Detection Rates ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Organized Screening Program ◽  
History Of ◽  
Comparative Results ◽  
Asymptomatic Individuals ◽  
Second Period

Background & Aims: Even though Romania has one of the highest incidence and mortality in colorectal cancer (CRC) in Europe, there is currently no organized screening program. We aimed to assess the results of our opportunistic CRC screening using colonoscopy.Methods: A single center retrospective study to include all opportunistic screening colonoscopies performed in two 18 month periods (2007-2008 and 2012-2013) was designed. All asymptomatic individuals without a personal or family history of adenoma or CRC and with complete colonoscopy performed in these two time periods were included.Results: We included 1,807 individuals, 882 in the first period, 925 in the second period. There were 389 individuals aged below 50, 1,351 between 50 and 75 and 67 older than 75 years. There were 956 women (52.9%), with a mean age of 58.5 (median 59, range 23-97). The detection rates were 12.6% for adenomas (6.1% for advanced adenoma) and 3.4% for adenocarcinoma. Adenoma incidence (4.9% in subjects under 50, 14.7% in those aged 50 to 75, and 16.4% in those older than 75, p<0.0001) and size (6.3mm in subjects younger than 50, 9.2mm in those 50 to 75 and 10.8mm in those older than 75, p=0.015) significantly increased with age. Adenoma incidence increased in the second period (14.8% vs. 10.3%, p=0.005), while adenoma size decreased in the second period (8.4mm vs. 10mm, p=0.006). There were no procedure related complications.Conclusions: The neoplasia detection rate was 16% (12.6% adenoma, 3.4% adenocarcinoma). Adenoma incidence and size increased with age in both cohorts. In the second screening period significantly more and smaller adenomas were detected.

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