Drug offence detection during the pandemic: a spatiotemporal study of drug markets

Mapping Intimacies ◽

10.31235/osf.io/sbh7j ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jason Leslie Payne ◽

Cameron Thomas Langfield

Keyword(s):

Additive Model ◽

Drug Market ◽

Preliminary Evidence ◽

Drug Markets ◽

Generalised Additive Model ◽

Urban Markets ◽

Drug Offence ◽

Crime Types ◽

The City ◽

Major Drug

Research on COVID-19 and crime has so far shown that most crime types declined, especially in the early months of the pandemic. Illicit drug offences were a notable exception, however few studies have considered changes at specific drug market locations. This study documents how key drug markets were affected during the lockdown. Using a spatiotemporal generalised additive model (GAM), this study examines the pattern of drug offence detection throughout the city of Brisbane, Australia and identifies areas of change during lockdown. Statistical meshblock analysis is used to illustrate discrete changes at key market locations. Contrary to aggregate-level analysis, we show that several of the major drug markets experienced a significant decline in drug offence detections, but that these local changes were offset by a displacement to neighbouring areas. We also find some preliminary evidence of the emergence of new outer-urban markets. Existing drug markets were adversely affected by the COVID-19 lockdown, however drug market activity was likely displaced rather than diminished.

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Drug offence detection during the COVID-19 lockdown: a spatiotemporal study of change in a street-level drug market

10.31235/osf.io/2x53n ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jason Leslie Payne ◽

Cameron Thomas Langfield

Keyword(s):

Additive Model ◽

Drug Market ◽

Future Research ◽

Generalised Additive Model ◽

Train Station ◽

Street Level ◽

Drug Offence ◽

Crime Types ◽

The Impact ◽

North And South

The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent introduction of strict government orders to `stay-at-home' has led to a significant decline in most crime types--except, notably, illicit drug detections. However, the impact of these restrictions on open-air, or street-level, drug markets has been neglected in the study of COVID-19. In this paper, we use data from the state of Queensland, Australia, to explore how COVID-19 restrictions may have impacted the open-air drug market of Fortitude Valley in Brisbane. Using a spatiotemporal generalised additive model (GAM), we find that drug detections did not change in the Fortitude Valley region (despite significant increases across the whole state) but that this finding masked considerable reductions in and around the Fortitude Valley train station as well as in the vicinity Brunswick Street mall. It seems that any COVID-19-related decrease appears to have been offset by increases elsewhere, particularly to the streets north and south west of the main street market. These results highlight the limitations of city-wide aggregate analyses of crime during the pandemic and highlights the need for future research, including with qualitative and ethnographic methods to better understand the lived experiences of drug sellers/users and the law enforcement officers who policed these areas.

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Drug markets and COVID-19: A spatiotemporal study of drug offence detection rates in Brisbane, Australia

10.31235/osf.io/2bxyw ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jason Leslie Payne ◽

Cameron Thomas Langfield

Keyword(s):

Illicit Drug ◽

Additive Model ◽

Drug Markets ◽

Worst Case ◽

Detection Rates ◽

Generalised Additive Model ◽

Drug Offence ◽

The Social ◽

User Communities ◽

The City

In many parts of the world, the social mobility restrictions and stay-at-home orders introduced during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic have been associated with significant reductions in crime. However, contrary to this general finding, illicit drug offence detections increased significantly. In this study, we explore the geographical distribution of the increase in Queensland, Australia, using spatiotemporal generalised additive model (GAM) to identify locations in the Local Government Area (LGA) of Brisbane where drug offence detection rates were unusually high during the three months of the COVID-19 lockdown (April-June 2020). Contrary to expectation, we find that the increase in drug offence detection rates appears to have been modest in most places, but widespread and diffuse throughout the city. We conclude that drug offence detections are most likely to have increased incidentally, probably as a consequence of general street policing initiatives which saw an increase in the visibility and vulnerability of drug user communities. We do, however, identify five locations in Brisbane where the drug offence detection rate exceeded the prediction by a considerable margin (in one case, more than double the worst case prediction). We argue that in these locations the increase was likely the result of some spatial displacement of inner-city drug markets coupled with a series of targeted policing activities. Further research is needed to clarify the true mechanism of change in these locations.

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Modeling of tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean using generalised additive model and machine learning techniques: role of Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

Natural Hazards ◽

10.1007/s11069-021-05116-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Md Wahiduzzaman ◽

Jing-Jia Luo

Keyword(s):

Additive Model ◽

Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽

North Indian Ocean ◽

Machine Learning Techniques ◽

Boreal Summer ◽

Cyclone Activity ◽

Generalised Additive Model ◽

The North ◽

Learning Techniques

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Growth performance of Acheta domesticus and Gryllus bimaculatus production reared under improvised cage system for increased returns and food security

Journal of Insects as Food and Feed ◽

10.3920/jiff2020.0082 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-10

Author(s):

C.A. Ngonga ◽

C.O. Gor ◽

E.A. Okuto ◽

M.A. Ayieko

Keyword(s):

Relative Humidity ◽

Growth Performance ◽

Additive Model ◽

Acheta Domesticus ◽

Cotton Wool ◽

Conventional System ◽

Gryllus Bimaculatus ◽

Generalised Additive Model ◽

Cage System ◽

Significant Difference

Cricket farming is emerging as a new venture in Kenya poised to help alleviate protein deficiency and improve household living standards. However, competing, limited and unaffordable rearing systems constrain productivity and optimisation of this new enterprise. This study sought to evaluate the growth performance of Acheta domesticus and Gryllus bimaculatus reared in improvised cage system to assess its technical effectiveness. Twenty-day old of both species of crickets were separately reared in improvised and conventional cage systems for comparison purposes. Whereas an improvised cage system is a set of structure devised using locally available materials especially where the standard materials are limited, a conventional cage system is a set of structure made of standard and ordinary materials. The improvised system comprised of bamboo hideouts, clean scrap blankets for drinking and laying, cut bamboo stem as drinking platter and the plywood-based cages while conventional system comprised of egg carton hideouts, cotton-wool for drinking and laying, plastic petri-dishes, and plastic buckets. Each group of crickets (100 live crickets) was daily provided with equal amount of feed and water. Average weekly temperature and relative humidity profiles were recorded using HOBO data loggers. Further, 49 live crickets per treatment were randomly sampled and weighed weekly. Generalised additive model and analysis of variance were adopted to model the data therefrom using R. The cage system had a significant effect on the growth performance of the crickets. The mean weight of the cricket species differed, but not the interaction with the cage system. Similarly, species, temperature and relative humidity also influenced the growth performance. Compared to the conventional system, improvised cage system showed better results in realising high cricket productivity though there was no significant difference in growth performance between the two systems. The focus therefore should be to evaluate the egg productivity in scrap blanket in relation to cotton wool and cost effectiveness in improvised system to inform future farm decisions.

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Combatting Substandard and Counterfeit Medicines in the Nigerian Drug Market: How Industrial Pharmacists Can Rise Up to the Challenge

INNOVATIONS in pharmacy ◽

10.24926/iip.v12i3.4233 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 15

Author(s):

Melody Okereke ◽

Ignatius Anukwu ◽

Sola Solarin ◽

Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa

Keyword(s):

Law Enforcement ◽

Drug Market ◽

Pharmaceutical Manufacturing ◽

Surveillance Systems ◽

Drug Markets ◽

Law Enforcement Agencies ◽

Cross Border ◽

Counterfeit Medicines ◽

Detection Technology ◽

Monitoring And Surveillance

Substandard and counterfeit medicines (SCMs) are a major public health threat in Africa. In Nigeria, the manufacture and distribution of substandard and counterfeit medicines in the drug market are booming, despite the efforts of law enforcement agencies to crack down on criminal syndicates over the years. The current situation has been exacerbated due to factors tied to unregulated open drug markets, lack of counterfeit detection technology, poor local pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity, and porous cross-border monitoring and surveillance systems. However, industrial pharmacists have a key role to play in combatting the production and circulation of SCMs in the Nigerian drug market. In this commentary, we examine the prevalence of SCMs in Nigeria and proffer feasible recommendations that industrial pharmacists can leverage to ensure its effective containment.

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The role of conidia in the dispersal of Ascochyta rabiei

10.1101/2020.05.12.091827 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ihsanul Khaliq ◽

Joshua Fanning ◽

Paul Melloy ◽

Jean Galloway ◽

Kevin Moore ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Additive Model ◽

Sprinkler Irrigation ◽

Ascochyta Rabiei ◽

Strong Wind ◽

Generalised Additive Model ◽

Rainfall Events ◽

Plant Parts ◽

Trap Plants ◽

Further Development

AbstractAscochyta rabiei asexual spores (conidia) were assumed to spread over short distances (∼10 m) in a combination of rain and strong wind. The potential distance of conidial spread was investigated in three rainfall and three sprinkler irrigation events. Chickpea trap plants were distributed at the distances of 0, 10, 25, 50 and 75 m from infected chickpea plots before scheduled irrigation and forecast rainfall events. Trap plants were transferred to a controlled temperature room (20 °C) for 48 h (100% humidity) after being exposed in the field for 2–6 days for rainfall events, and for one day for irrigation events. After a 48 h incubation period, trap plants were transferred to a glasshouse (20 °C) to allow lesion development. Lesions on all plant parts were counted after two weeks, which gave an estimate of the number of conidia released and the distance travelled. Trap plants at all distances were infected in all sprinkler irrigation and rainfall events. The highest number of lesions on trap plants were recorded closest to the infected plots – the numbers decreased as the distance from the infected plots increased. There was a positive relationship between the amount of rainfall and the number of lesions recorded. A generalised additive model was developed that efficiently described spatial patterns of conidial spread. With further development, the model can be used to predict the spread of A. rabiei. This is the first systematic study to show that conidia distribute A. rabiei over longer distances than previously reported.

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Acute effects of air pollution on ischaemic stroke onset and deaths: a time-series study in Changzhou, China

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020425 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 8 (7) ◽

pp. e020425 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Huibin Dong ◽

Yongquan Yu ◽

Shen Yao ◽

Yan Lu ◽

Zhiyong Chen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Ischaemic Stroke ◽

Statistical Significance ◽

Additive Model ◽

The Elderly ◽

Acute Effect ◽

Cold Season ◽

Air Pollutant ◽

Generalised Additive Model ◽

Short Term Exposure

ObjectiveTo investigate the acute effect of air pollutants on ischaemic stroke (IS) and IS-related death.SettingFive urban districts in Changzhou, China, between 9 January 2015 and 31 December 2016.ParticipantsA total of 32 840 IS cases and 4028 IS deaths were enrolled.Main outcome measuresA time-series design, generalised additive model and multivariable regression model were used to examine the percentage change (95% CI) in daily IS counts and deaths with an IQR increase in air pollutant levels for different single or multiple lag days in single-pollutant and two-pollutant models.ResultsDaily IS counts increased 0.208% (95% CI 0.036% to 0.381%) with an IQR increment in the levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The estimated risk of NO2was more robust in males and in the cold season. For daily IS counts, the estimated effects of NO2and sulfur dioxide (SO2) were more significant when adjusted for particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters <2.5 µm (PM2.5) and PM10. An IQR increment in the concentration of PM10, SO2and NO2significantly increased IS deaths with 6 days of cumulative effects (0.268%, 95% CI 0.007% to 1.528%; 0.34%, 0.088% to 0.592%; and 0.263%, 0.004% to 0.522%, respectively). Young individuals (<65 years old) had a higher IS mortality risk for PM2.5, PM10, NO2and CO. For IS death, the effect estimates of SO2in the elderly, females and the cold season were more pronounced; statistical significance was also identified for SO2when adjusted for carbon monoxide (CO).ConclusionsThis study suggested that short-term exposure to ambient NO2was associated with increased IS risk. In addition, SO2was associated with increased IS onset and death.

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The Prescription Drug Market

The Right Price ◽

10.1093/oso/9780197512883.003.0002 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 14-37

Author(s):

Neumann Peter J. ◽

Cohen Joshua T. ◽

Ollendorf Daniel A

Keyword(s):

Health Insurance ◽

Prescription Drug ◽

Drug Market ◽

Supply Side ◽

Drug Markets ◽

Demand Side ◽

Considerable Uncertainty ◽

Pricing Power ◽

Prescription Drug Market ◽

System Feature

This chapter describes how prescription drug markets deviate from “normal” competitive markets. On the demand side, there is considerable uncertainty in disease prognosis and treatment effects; buyers have much less information than sellers; consumers usually do not pay directly for their prescriptions but rather have health insurance, which protects them from a drug’s full price; and physicians and insurers play a major role in consumer choices. On the supply side, firms are heavily regulated, subject to laws requiring that drugs undergo extensive testing before entering the marketplace. Monopolies are a system feature, designed to incentivize companies to invest in expensive and risky drug discovery by providing the prospect of a big payoff if the investment succeeds. Patents and market exclusivity restrict competition and provide drug developers considerable pricing power. The challenge for policymakers is how to achieve reasonable or fair drug prices in light of these market distortions.

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