The Fiscal Costs of Climate Change

This paper explores the fiscal consequences of climate change. The analysis considers climate change impacts on (i) the cost of existing government services (e.g., disaster assistance) and (ii) the need for publicly provided anticipatory adaptation (e.g., sea walls). These channels are integrated into the COMET, a dynamic general equilibrium climate-economy model with distortionary taxation and government expenditures. The main result is that accounting for fiscal impacts may increase the welfare benefits of efficient climate policy by up to 30 percent. Business-as-usual climate change may necessitate increases in income tax rates and elevate the marginal cost of raising public funds.

Long-Run Relationship Between Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Asia: Evidence Using Pedroni’s Cointegration Approach

This paper investigates the long-run relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth in Asia between 1982 and 2001 through the application of Pedroni’s Cointegration approach. It examines two different channels through which fiscal policy can affect long-run economic growth in Asian countries. The first channel is when components and aggregate government expenditure affect the real per capita GDP, and the second channel is when the distortionary taxation, budget balance, and aggregate of other fiscal variables affect the real per capita GDP. There is a positive and statistically significant impact of health and education expenditure, aggregate of government expenditure, and aggregate of other fiscal variables on real per capita GDP. It was found that the defence expenditure, distortionary taxation, and budget balance are significantly and negatively related to real per capita GDP. The Pedroni Cointegration result establishes a long-run relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth.

DEBT STABILIZATION IN A NON-RICARDIAN ECONOMY

In models with a representative infinitely lived household, tax smoothing implies that the steady state of government debt should follow a random walk. This is unlikely to be the case in overlapping generations (OLG) economies, where the equilibrium interest rate may differ from the policy maker's rate of time preference. It may therefore be optimal to reduce debt today to reduce distortionary taxation in the future. In addition, the level of the capital stock in these economies is likely to be suboptimally low, and reducing government debt will crowd in additional capital. Using a version of the Blanchard-Yaari model of perpetual youth, with both public and private capital, we show that it is optimal in steady state for the government to hold assets. However, we also show how and why this level of government assets can fall short of both the level of debt that achieves the optimal capital stock and the level that eliminates income taxes. Finally, we compute the optimal adjustment path to this steady state.

FISCAL RULES AND UNEMPLOYMENT

This paper shows how fiscal policy affects unemployment in a New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions and distortionary taxation. The model is estimated using US data that includes labor market flows and distinct fiscal instruments. Several findings stand out. First, unemployment multipliers for spending and consumption tax cuts are substantial, even though output multipliers turn out to be less than one. Second, multipliers for labor tax cuts are small. Third, fiscal rules enhance the positive effects of discretionary fiscal policy. However, these expansionary effects on the multipliers are modest compared to earlier studies.