The effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the COVID-19 contagion in the UK, an observational and modelling study

Epidemiological models used to inform government policies aimed to reduce the contagion of COVID-19, assume that the reproduction number is reduced through Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) leading to physical distancing. Available data in the UK show an increase in physical distancing before the NPIs were implemented and a fall soon after implementation. We aimed to estimate the effect of people’s behaviour on the epidemic curve and the effect of NPIs taking into account this behavioural component. We have estimated the effects of confirmed daily cases on physical distancing and we used this insight to design a behavioural SEIR model (BeSEIR), simulated different scenaria regarding NPIs and compared the results to the standard SEIR. Taking into account behavioural insights improves the description of the contagion dynamics of the epidemic significantly. The BeSEIR predictions regarding the number of infections without NPIs were several orders of magnitude less than the SEIR. However, the BeSEIR prediction showed that early measures would still have an important influence in the reduction of infections. The BeSEIR model shows that even with no intervention the percentage of the cumulative infections within a year will not be enough for the epidemic to resolve due to a herd immunity effect. On the other hand, a standard SEIR model significantly overestimates the effectiveness of measures. Without taking into account the behavioural component, the epidemic is predicted to be resolved much sooner than when taking it into account and the effectiveness of measures are significantly overestimated.

Evolutionary Mechanism of Immunological Cross-Reactivity Between Different GII.17 Variants

Human norovirus is regarded as the leading cause of epidemic acute gastroenteritis with GII.4 being the predominant genotype during the past decades. In the winter of 2014/2015, the GII.17 Kawasaki 2014 emerged as the predominant genotype, surpassing GII.4 in several East Asian countries. Hence, the influence of host immunity response on the continuous evolution of different GII.17 variants needs to be studied in depth. Here, we relate the inferences of evolutionary mechanisms of different GII.17 variants with the investigation of cross-reactivity and cross-protection of their respective antisera using the expression of norovirus P particles in Escherichia coli. The cross-reactivity assay showed that the antisera of previous strains (GII.17 A and GII.17 B) reacted with recent variants (GII.17 C and GII.17 D) at high OD values from 0.8 to 1.16, while recent variant antisera cross-reacting with previous strains were weak with OD values between 0.26 and 0.56. The cross-protection assay indicated that the antisera of previous strains had no inhibitory effect on recent variants. Finally, mutations at amino acids 353–363, 373–384, 394–404, and 444–454 had the greatest impact on cross-reactivity. These data indicate that the recent pandemic variants GII.17 C and GII.17 D avoided the herd immunity effect of previous GII.17 A and GII.17 B strains through antigenic variation.

The Effectiveness of Non Pharmaceutical Interventions in Reducing the Outcomes of the COVID-19 Epidemic in the UK, an Observational and Modelling Study.

Background: the context and purpose of the studyEpidemiological models used to inform government policies aimed to contain the contagion of COVID-19, assume that the reproduction rate is reduced through Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) leading to physical distancing. Available data in the UK show an increase in physical distancing before the NPIs were implemented and a fall soon after implementation. We aimed to estimate the effect of people’s behaviour on the epidemic curve and the effect of NPIs taking into account this behavioural component. Methods: how the study was performed and statistical tests usedWe have estimated the effects of confirmed daily cases on physical distancing and we used this insight to design a bevavioural SEIR model (BeSEIR), simulated different scenaria regarding NPIs and compared the results to the standard SEIR. Results: the main findingsTaking into account behavioural insights improves the description of the contagion dynamics of the epidemic significantly. The BeSEIR predictions regarding the number of infections without NPIs were several orders of magnitude less than the SEIR. However, the BeSEIR prediction showed that early measures would still have an important influence in the reduction of infections. The BeSEIR model shows that even with no intervention the percentage of the cumulative infections within a year will not be enough for the epidemic to resolve due to a herd immunity effect. On the other hand, a standard SEIR model significantly overestimates the effectiveness of measures. Conclusions:Without taking into account the behavioural component, the epidemic is predicted to be resolved much sooner than when taking it into account and the effectiveness of measures are significantly overestimated.

Blood thicker than water: kinship, disease prevalence and group size drive divergent patterns of infection risk in a social mammal

The importance of social- and kin-structuring of populations for the transmission of wildlife disease is widely assumed but poorly described. Social structure can help dilute risks of transmission for group members, and is relatively easy to measure, but kin-association represents a further level of population sub-structure that is harder to measure, particularly when association behaviours happen underground. Here, using epidemiological and molecular genetic data from a wild, high-density population of the European badger ( Meles meles ), we quantify the risks of infection with Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of tuberculosis) in cubs. The risk declines with increasing size of its social group, but this net dilution effect conceals divergent patterns of infection risk. Cubs only enjoy reduced risk when social groups have a higher proportion of test-negative individuals. Cubs suffer higher infection risk in social groups containing resident infectious adults, and these risks are exaggerated when cubs and infectious adults are closely related. We further identify key differences in infection risk associated with resident infectious males and females. We link our results to parent–offspring interactions and other kin-biased association, but also consider the possibility that susceptibility to infection is heritable. These patterns of infection risk help to explain the observation of a herd immunity effect in badgers following low-intensity vaccination campaigns. They also reveal kinship and kin-association to be important, and often hidden, drivers of disease transmission in social mammals.

Updated Postlicensure Surveillance of the Meningococcal C Conjugate Vaccine in England and Wales: Effectiveness, Validation of Serological Correlates of Protection, and Modeling Predictions of the Duration of Herd Immunity

ABSTRACT Meningococcal serogroup C conjugate (MCC) vaccines were licensed in the United Kingdom more than 10 years ago based on correlates of protection that had previously been established for serogroup C-containing polysaccharide vaccines by using the serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) assay. These correlates of protection were subsequently validated against postlicensure estimates of observed vaccine effectiveness up to 7 to 9 months after the administration of the MCC vaccine. Vaccine effectiveness was, however, shown to fall significantly more than 1 year after the administration of a 3-dose course in infancy. Despite this finding, the marked impact on serogroup C disease has been sustained, with the lowest recorded incidence (0.02 case per 100,000 population) in the 2008-2009 epidemiological year, mainly due to the indirect herd immunity effect of the vaccine in reducing carriage. Updated estimates of vaccine effectiveness through 30 June 2009 confirmed high short-term protection after vaccination in infancy, at 97% (95% confidence interval [CI], 91% to 99%), falling to 68% (95% CI, −63% to 90%) more than a year after vaccination. The observed vaccine effectiveness more than 12 months postvaccination was consistent with measured declining SBA levels, but confidence intervals were imprecise; vaccine effectiveness estimates were consistent with SBA titers of 1:4 or 1:8 as correlates of long-term protection after a primary course in infants. Modeling suggested that protection against carriage persists for at least 3 years and predicted the stabilization of serogroup C disease at low levels (fewer than 50 cases per year) up to 2015-2016.