Bayesian Hetero-Elasticnet (A Gibbs Sampler Approach)

Combined heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity as dual non-spherical disturbances were experimented asymptotically. A Gibbs Sampler technique was used to investigate the asymptotic properties of hetero-elasticnet estimator with mean squares error (MSE) and bias as performance metrics. The seed was set to 12345; is set at ; Xs variables were generated as follow: the design matrix was generated from the multivariate normal distribution with mean > 0 and variance . and are truncated with Harvey (1976) heteroscedastic error structure; are collinear covariate with pairwise correlation between 0.6 and 0.9, the sample sizes were 25, 100 and 1000. The number of replications of the experiment was set at 10,000 with burn-in of 1000 which specified the draws that were discarded to remove the effects of the initial values. The thinning was set at 5 to ensure the removal of the effects of autocorrelation in the MCMC simulation. The study found that there is consistency of estimator asymptotically as the sample sizes increases from 25 to 50 so also to 1000, the larger sample size depicted least bias. The estimator exhibited efficiency asymptotically as larger sample sizes depicted least mean squares error. The study therefore recommended Bayesian hetero-elasticnet when data exhibit both heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity. Keywords: Elasticnet; Bayesian Inference and Gibbs sampler

QANOVA: quantile-based permutation methods for general factorial designs

Population means and standard deviations are the most common estimands to quantify effects in factorial layouts. In fact, most statistical procedures in such designs are built toward inferring means or contrasts thereof. For more robust analyses, we consider the population median, the interquartile range (IQR) and more general quantile combinations as estimands in which we formulate null hypotheses and calculate compatible confidence regions. Based upon simultaneous multivariate central limit theorems and corresponding resampling results, we derive asymptotically correct procedures in general, potentially heteroscedastic, factorial designs with univariate endpoints. Special cases cover robust tests for the population median or the IQR in arbitrary crossed one-, two- and higher-way layouts with potentially heteroscedastic error distributions. In extensive simulations, we analyze their small sample properties and also conduct an illustrating data analysis comparing children’s height and weight from different countries.

On Seemingly Unrelated Regression and Single Equation Estimators Under Heteroscedastic Error and Non-Gaussian Responses

This study investigated the efficiency of Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimator of Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) compared to robust MM-BISQ, M-Huber, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimators when the variances of the error terms are non-constant and the distribution of the response variables is not Gaussian. The finite properties and relative performance of these other estimators to OLS were examined under four forms of heteroscedasticity of the error terms, levels of Contemporaneous Correlation (Cc) with gamma responses. The efficiency of four estimation techniques for the SUR model was examined using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) criterion to determine the best estimator(s) under different conditions at various sample sizes. The simulation results revealed that the SUR estimator (FGLS) showed superior performance in the small sample situations when the contemporaneous correlation ( ) is almost perfect ( =0.95) with the gamma response model while MM-BISQ was the best under low contemporaneous correlation. The relative efficiencies of MM-BISQ, M-Huber and FGLS estimators over the OLS are respectively 89%, 71%, and 14% in a small sample 30) and 49%, 32% and 1% in large sample sizes under gamma response model. The study concluded that MM-BISQ and M-Huber estimators are the most efficient estimators for modeling systems of simultaneous equations with non-Gaussian responses under either homoscedastic or multiplicative heteroscedastic error terms irrespective of the sample size.Keywords—, Contemporaneous correlation, Feasible Generalized Least Square, Heteroscedasticity, Homoscedasticity, Seemingly unrelated Regression.

Envelopes in multivariate regression models with nonlinearity and heteroscedasticity

Summary Envelopes have been proposed in recent years as a nascent methodology for sufficient dimension reduction and efficient parameter estimation in multivariate linear models. We extend the classical definition of envelopes in Cook et al. (2010) to incorporate a nonlinear conditional mean function and a heteroscedastic error. Given any two random vectors ${X}\in\mathbb{R}^{p}$ and ${Y}\in\mathbb{R}^{r}$, we propose two new model-free envelopes, called the martingale difference divergence envelope and the central mean envelope, and study their relationships to the standard envelope in the context of response reduction in multivariate linear models. The martingale difference divergence envelope effectively captures the nonlinearity in the conditional mean without imposing any parametric structure or requiring any tuning in estimation. Heteroscedasticity, or nonconstant conditional covariance of ${Y}\mid{X}$, is further detected by the central mean envelope based on a slicing scheme for the data. We reveal the nested structure of different envelopes: (i) the central mean envelope contains the martingale difference divergence envelope, with equality when ${Y}\mid{X}$ has a constant conditional covariance; and (ii) the martingale difference divergence envelope contains the standard envelope, with equality when ${Y}\mid{X}$ has a linear conditional mean. We develop an estimation procedure that first obtains the martingale difference divergence envelope and then estimates the additional envelope components in the central mean envelope. We establish consistency in envelope estimation of the martingale difference divergence envelope and central mean envelope without stringent model assumptions. Simulations and real-data analysis demonstrate the advantages of the martingale difference divergence envelope and the central mean envelope over the standard envelope in dimension reduction.

Stock Price Simulation Using Bootstrap and Monte Carlo

In this paper, an attempt is made to assessment and comparison of bootstrap experiment and Monte Carlo experiment for stock price simulation. Since the stock price evolution in the future is extremely important for the investors, there is the attempt to find the best method how to determine the future stock price of BNP Paribas′ bank. The aim of the paper is define the value of the European and Asian option on BNP Paribas′ stock at the maturity date. There are employed four different methods for the simulation. First method is bootstrap experiment with homoscedastic error term, second method is blocked bootstrap experiment with heteroscedastic error term, third method is Monte Carlo simulation with heteroscedastic error term and the last method is Monte Carlo simulation with homoscedastic error term. In the last method there is necessary to model the volatility using econometric GARCH model. The main purpose of the paper is to compare the mentioned methods and select the most reliable. The difference between classical European option and exotic Asian option based on the experiment results is the next aim of tis paper.