Enhanced flood hazard assessment beyond decadal climate cycles based on centennial historical data (Duero basin, Spain)

Current climate modelling frameworks present significant uncertainties when it comes to quantifying flood quantiles in the context of climate change, calling for new information and strategies in hazard assessments. Here, state-of-the-art methods on hydraulic and statistical modelling are applied to historical and contemporaneous flood records to evaluate flood hazards beyond natural climate cycles. A comprehensive flood record of the Duero River in Zamora (Spain) was compiled from documentary sources, early water-level readings and continuous gauge records spanning the last 500 years. Documentary evidence of flood events includes minute books (municipal and ecclesiastic), narrative descriptions, epigraphic marks, newspapers and technical reports. We identified 69 flood events over the period 1250 to 1871, of which 15 were classified as catastrophic floods, 16 as extraordinary floods and 38 as ordinary floods. Subsequently, a two-dimensional hydraulic model was implemented to relate flood stages (flood marks and inundated areas) to discharges. The historical flood records show the largest floods over the last 500 years occurred in 1860 (3450 m3 s−1), 1597 (3200 m3 s−1) and 1739 (2700 m3 s−1). Moreover, at least 24 floods exceeded the perception threshold of 1900 m3 s−1 during the period (1500–1871). Annual maximum flood records were completed with gauged water-level readings (pre-instrumental dataset, PRE: 1872–1919) and systematic gauge records (systematic dataset, SYS: 1920–2018). The flood frequency analyses were based on (1) the expected moments algorithm (EMA) and (2) the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) method, using five datasets with different temporal frameworks (historic dataset, HISTO: 1511–2018; PRE–SYS: 1872–2018; full systematic record, ALLSYS: 1920–2018; SYS1: 1920–1969; and SYS2: 1970–2018). The most consistent results were obtained using the HISTO dataset, even for high quantiles (0.001 % annual exceedance probability, AEP). PRE–SYS was robust for the 1 % AEP flood with increasing uncertainty in the 0.2 % AEP or 500-year flood, and ALLSYS results were uncertain in the 1 % and 0.2 % AEP floods. Since the 1970s, the frequency of extraordinary floods (>1900 m3 s−1) declined, although floods on the range of the historical perception threshold occurred in 2001 (2075 m3 s−1) and 2013 (1654 m3 s−1). Even if the future remains uncertain, this bottom-up approach addresses flood hazards under climate variability, providing real and certain flood discharges. Our results can provide a guide on low-regret adaptation decisions and improve public perception of extreme flooding.

Medium-term monitoring reveals effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation climate variability on local salinity and faunal dynamics on a restored oyster reef

Human activities and regional-scale climate variability drive changes in the ecology of coastal and marine ecosystems. Ecological restoration has emerged as a best-management practice to combat habitat degradation and restore lost ecological functions. However, relatively short project monitoring timeframes have limited our understanding of the effects of interannual climate cycles on water quality and restoration dynamics. We collected measurements on a 23-ha oyster reef constructed in the Gulf of Mexico to determine the relationship between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven climate variability and local salinity patterns, and to evaluate the effects of this climate variability and salinity on oyster population dynamics and faunal community composition over a medium-term (five-year) timeframe. The role of ENSO-driven climate variability on local salinity patterns (primarily from changes in precipitation and evaporation) and faunal dynamics was investigated using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). Salinity was negatively correlated with ONI with an approximately 4-month lag. Higher ONI values (El Niño periods) were followed by reductions in salinity, increases in oyster recruitment and density, and reductions in resident motile fauna density and species richness. Lower ONI values (La Niña periods) had higher and less variable salinities, and higher areal coverage of restoration substrates by large oysters. ENSO-driven salinity reductions in the second year after reef construction coincided with a shift in resident motile faunal community composition that was maintained despite a second strong salinity reduction in year 5. Our results indicate that it is important to expand the typical monitoring timeframes to at least five years so that resource managers and restoration practitioners can better understand how both short-term environmental variability and longer-term climate cycles can affect the outcomes of restoration actions.

Enhanced flood hazard assessment beyond decadal climate cycles based on centennial historical data

Current climate modelling frameworks present significant uncertainties when it comes to quantifying flood quantiles in the context of climate change, calling for new information and strategies in hazard assessments. Here, state-of-the-art methods on hydraulic and statistical modelling are applied to historical and contemporaneous flood records to evaluate flood hazards beyond natural climate cycles. A comprehensive flood record of the Duero River in Zamora (Spain) was compiled from documentary sources, early water-level readings and continuous gauge records spanning the last 500 years. Documentary evidence of flood events includes minute books (municipal and ecclesiastic), narrative descriptions, epigraphic marks, newspapers and technical reports. We identified 69 flood events over the period 1250 to 1871, of which, 15 were classified as catastrophic floods, 16 as extraordinary floods, and 38 as ordinary floods. Subsequently, a 2D-hydraulic model was implemented to relate flood stages (flood marks and inundated areas) into discharges. The historical flood records show the largest floods over the last 500 years occurred in 1860 (3450 m3/s), 1597 (3200 m3/s), and 1739 (2700 m3/s). Moreover, at least 24 floods exceeded the perception threshold of 1900 m3/s during the period (1500–1871). Annual maximum flood records were completed with gauged water-level readings (PRE: 1872–1919) and systematic gauge records (SYS: 1920–2018). The flood frequency analyses were based on (1) Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) and (2) Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) method, using five datasets with different temporal frameworks (HISTO: 1511–2018, PRE-SYS: 1872–2018, ALLSYS: 1920–2018, SYS1: 1920–1969, and SYS2: 1970–2018). The most consistent results were obtained using the HISTO dataset, even for high quantiles (0.001 % AEP). PRE-SYS was robust for the 1 % AEP flood with increasing uncertainty in the 0.2 % AEP or 500-year flood, and ALLSYS results were uncertain in the 1 % and 0.2 % AEP floods. Since the 1970s, the frequency of extraordinary floods (> 1900 m3/s) declined, although floods on the range of the historical perception threshold occurred in 2001 (2075 m3/s) and 2013 (1654 m3/s). Even if the future remains uncertain, this bottom-up approach addresses flood hazards under climate variability providing real and certain flood discharges. Our results can provide a guide on low-regret adaptation decisions and improve public perception of extreme flooding.

Supplemental Material: Precession-driven climate cycles and time scale prior to the Hirnantian glacial maximum

Time-series analyses scripts and data.<br>