Stacked survival models for residual lifetime data

When modelling the survival distribution of a disease for which the symptomatic progression of the associated condition is insidious, it is not always clear how to measure the failure/censoring times from some true date of disease onset. In a prevalent cohort study with follow-up, one approach for removing any potential influence from the uncertainty in the measurement of the true onset dates is through the utilization of only the residual lifetimes. As the residual lifetimes are measured from a well-defined screening date (prevalence day) to failure/censoring, these observed time durations are essentially error free. Using residual lifetime data, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) may be used to estimate the underlying survival function. However, the resulting estimator can yield exceptionally wide confidence intervals. Alternatively, while parametric maximum likelihood estimation can yield narrower confidence intervals, it may not be robust to model misspecification. Using only right-censored residual lifetime data, we propose a stacking procedure to overcome the non-robustness of model misspecification; our proposed estimator comprises a linear combination of individual nonparametric/parametric survival function estimators, with optimal stacking weights obtained by minimizing a Brier Score loss function.

Weak Dependence Notions and Their Mutual Relationships

New weak notions of positive dependence between the components X and Y of a random pair (X,Y) have been considered in recent papers that deal with the effects of dependence on conditional residual lifetimes and conditional inactivity times. The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured framework for the definition and description of these notions, and other new ones, and to describe their mutual relationships. An exhaustive review of some well-know notions of dependence, with a complete description of the equivalent definitions and reciprocal relationships, some of them expressed in terms of the properties of the copula or survival copula of (X,Y), is also provided.

On a new stochastic model for cascading failures

In this paper, to model cascading failures, a new stochastic failure model is proposed. In a system subject to cascading failures, after each failure of the component, the remaining component suffers from increased load or stress. This results in shortened residual lifetimes of the remaining components. In this paper, to model this effect, the concept of the usual stochastic order is employed along with the accelerated life test model, and a new general class of stochastic failure models is generated.

ON THE RESIDUAL AND PAST LIFETIMES OF COHERENT SYSTEMS UNDER RANDOM MONITORING

This paper discusses stochastic comparisons for the residual and past lifetimes of coherent systems with dependent and identically distributed (d.i.d.) components under random monitoring in terms of the hazard rate, the reversed hazard rate, and the likelihood ratio orders. Some stochastic comparisons results are also established on the residual lifetimes of coherent systems under random observation times when all of the components are alive at that time. Sufficient conditions are established in terms of the aging properties of the components and the distortion functions induced from the system structure and dependence among components lifetimes. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results as well.

RESIDUAL STOCHASTIC PRECEDENCE ORDER

The aim of this paper is to introduce a new stochastic order based on the residual lifetimes of two nonnegative dependent random variables and the stochastic precedence order. We develop some characterizations and preservation properties of this stochastic order. In addition, we study some of its reliability properties and its relation with other existing stochastic orders. One of the possible applications in reliability theory has also been discussed.

JOINT LIFE INSURANCE PRICING USING EXTENDED MARSHALL–OLKIN MODELS

In this paper we suggest a modeling of joint life insurance pricing via Extended Marshall–Olkin (EMO) models and related copulas. These models are based on the combination of two approaches: the absolutely continuous copula approach, where the copula is used to capture dependencies due to environmental factors shared by the two lives, and the classical Marshall–Olkin model, where the association is given by accounting for a fatal event causing the simultaneous death of the two lives. New properties of the EMO model are established and applied to a sample of censored residual lifetimes of couples of insureds extracted from a data set of annuities contracts of a large Canadian life insurance company. Finally, some joint life insurance products are analyzed.

Univariate and multivariate stochastic orderings of residual lifetimes of live components in sequential (𝑛-𝑟+ 1)-out-of-𝑛 systems

Sequential order statistics can be used to describe the ordered lifetimes of components of a system when the failure of a component may affect the reliability of the remaining components. After a reliability system consisting of n components fails, some of its components may still be alive. In this paper we first establish some univariate stochastic orderings and ageing properties of the residual lifetimes of the live components in a sequential (n-r+1)-out-of-n system. We also obtain a characterizing result for the exponential distribution based on uncorrelated residual lifetimes of live components. Finally, we provide some sufficient conditions for comparing vectors of residual lifetimes of the live components from two sequential (n-r+1)-out-of-n systems. The results established here extend some well-known results in the literature.