Discovery of the Major Mechanism of Global Warming and Climate Change

Statistical analysis of the number of destructive earthquakes versus global temperature and greenhouse gases revealed very significant correlations. The motion of the North Pole, deduced from the geomagnetic polar shift data, is highly correlated with major earthquakes. This is an indication that the frequent occurrence of major earthquakes had increased earth’s obliquity and possibly induced global warming and emission of greenhouse gases. It was shown by a simple model developed here that seismic-induced oceanic force could enhance the obliquity leading to increased solar radiative flux on earth. The increase of the absorbed solar radiation due to polar tilt was also confirmed by SOLRAD model which computed a net gain of solar radiative forcing due to enhanced obliquity. SOLRAD also revealed a poleward gain of solar radiative flux which could have facilitated the observed polar amplification of global warming. Multiple regression analysis also showed that polar shift and solar irradiance played a major role in the temperature rise and CO2 increase in recent years. The analysis showed that obliquity change due to North Pole shift and total solar irradiance accounted for 63.5% and 36.4% respectively, while CO2 changes accounted for 0.1% of the observed global warming. Preliminary simulations conducted with EdGCM climate model also showed that enhanced obliquity increases the absorbed solar radiative flux, surface air and ocean temperatures, and decreases ocean ice cover. This study confirmed in several ways that earthquake-perturbed obliquity change, and not greenhouse effect, is the major mechanism governing the present global warming and climate change problem.

Discovery of the major mechanism of global warming and climate change

Statistical analysis of the number of destructive earthquakes versus global temperature and greenhouse gases revealed very significant correlations. This is a strong indication that the frequent occurrence of major earthquakes had increased earth’s obliquity and induced both global warming and emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) in recent years. It is further shown by a simple model developed here that seismic-induced oceanic pressure could enhance the obliquity leading to increased solar radiative flux on earth. The possible increase in the planetary obliquity was substantiated by the solar radiation model SOLRAD, which simulated an associated increase of absorbed solar radiation. The model also revealed a net poleward gain of solar radiative flux with enhanced obliquity which could be the cause of the observed polar amplification of global warming and climate change. Multiple regression analysis also showed that the sudden obliquity change since 1995 played a major role in the temperature rise and GHG increase, and coincided with the 10 warmest years on record. Climate simulations conducted with the EdGCM also showed that enhanced obliquity causes increased solar radiative flux, increased air and ocean temperature, and decline of ocean ice cover. The enhanced obliquity and absorbed solar radiation could have accelerated the melting of ice sheets and glaciers, exposure and degradation of permafrost regions, increased CO2 respiration fluxes from soil, and forest fires during summer. This study confirmed in several ways that earthquake-pressured obliquity change, and not greenhouse effect, is the major mechanism governing global warming and climate change presently occurring on earth.

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt and Its Relation to Daily Atmospheric Conditions

Melt area is one of the most reliably monitored variables associated with surface conditions over the full Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Surface melt is also an important indicator of surface mass balance and has potential relevance to the ice sheet’s global sea level contribution. Melt events are known to be spatially heterogeneous and have varying time scales. To understand the forcing mechanisms, it is necessary to examine the relation between the existing conditions and melt area on the time scales that melt is observed. Here, the authors conduct a regression analysis of atmospheric reanalysis variables including sea level pressure, near-surface winds, and components of the surface energy budget with surface melt. The regression analysis finds spatial heterogeneity in the associated atmospheric circulation conditions. For basins in the southern GrIS, there is an association between melt area and high pressure located south of the Denmark Strait, which allows for southerly flow over the western half of the GrIS. Instantaneous surface melt over northern basins is also associated with low pressure over the central Arctic. Basins associated with persistent summer melt in the southern and western GrIS are associated with the presence of an enhanced cloud cover, a resulting decreased downwelling solar radiative flux, and an enhanced downwelling longwave radiative flux. This contrasts with basins to the north and east, where an increased downwelling solar radiative flux plays a more important role in the onset of a melt event. The analysis emphasizes the importance of daily variability in synoptic conditions and their preferred association with melt events.