Simple epidemic models with segmentation can be better than complex ones

Given a sequence of epidemic events, can a single epidemic model capture its dynamics during the entire period? How should we divide the sequence into segments to better capture the dynamics? Throughout human history, infectious diseases (e.g., the Black Death and COVID-19) have been serious threats. Consequently, understanding and forecasting the evolving patterns of epidemic events are critical for prevention and decision making. To this end, epidemic models based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which effectively describe dynamic systems in many fields, have been employed. However, a single epidemic model is not enough to capture long-term dynamics of epidemic events especially when the dynamics heavily depend on external factors (e.g., lockdown and the capability to perform tests). In this work, we demonstrate that properly dividing the event sequence regarding COVID-19 (specifically, the numbers of active cases, recoveries, and deaths) into multiple segments and fitting a simple epidemic model to each segment leads to a better fit with fewer parameters than fitting a complex model to the entire sequence. Moreover, we propose a methodology for balancing the number of segments and the complexity of epidemic models, based on the Minimum Description Length principle. Our methodology is (a) Automatic: not requiring any user-defined parameters, (b) Model-agnostic: applicable to any ODE-based epidemic models, and (c) Effective: effectively describing and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in 70 countries.

Real-Time Recursive Fingerprint Radio Map Creation Algorithm Combining Wi-Fi and Geomagnetism

Fingerprint is a typical indoor-positioning algorithm, which measures the strength of wireless signals and creates a radio map. Using this radio map, the position is estimated through comparisons with the received signal strength measured in real-time. The radio map has a direct effect on the positioning performance; therefore, it should be designed accurately and managed efficiently, according to the type of wireless signal, amount of space, and wireless-signal density. This paper proposes a real-time recursive radio map creation algorithm that combines Wi-Fi and geomagnetism. The proposed method automatically recreates the radio map using geomagnetic radio-map dual processing (GRDP), which reduces the time required to create it. It also reduces the size of the radio map by actively optimizing its dimensions using an entropy-based minimum description length principle (MDLP) method. Experimental results in an actual building show that the proposed system exhibits similar map creation time as a system using a Wi-Fi–based radio map. Geomagnetic radio maps exhibiting over 80% positioning accuracy were created, and the dimensions of the radio map that combined the two signals were found to be reduced by 23.81%, compared to the initially prepared radio map. The dimensions vary according to the wireless signal state, and are automatically reduced in different environments.