Crisis and arbitrage opportunities: The role of causation, effectuation and entrepreneurial learning

This article examines the process by which entrepreneurs identify and work with an arbitrage opportunity emerging from an episodic crisis. Although prior research has investigated the role of entrepreneurial characteristics and context on opportunity development, the specific manner in which these factors emerge in the course of opportunity development during a crisis remain underexplored. By adopting a qualitative approach grounded in case studies of eight entrepreneurs in the US distillery industry, this article addresses that gap by examining the process of arbitrage opportunity development during COVID-19. Our study reveals the primacy of both causation and effectuation-based entrepreneurial decision logics and the role of double-loop learning, as entrepreneurs interact with the time-compressed duration of the arbitrage opportunity. Implications and insights for entrepreneurs, researchers and policymakers are discussed.

A study of efficiency in New Zealand election prediction markers

<p>The development of prediction markets has naturally given rise to studies of their efficiency. Most studies of efficiency in prediction markets have focused on the speed with which they incorporate information. A necessary (but not sufficient) condition of efficiency is that arbitrage opportunities must non-existent or transitory in nature so that the systematic generation of abnormal profits is not possible. Using data from New Zealand’s first prediction market, iPredict, I examine the potential for arbitrage in the contracts for the party vote for the 2011 General Election. Relative to the risk-free interest rate, the returns from arbitrage are generally low, consistent with an efficient market. Regression analysis requires that the data not be subject to the possibility of spurious regressions - something that is not addressed in the literature. After confirming the non-stationarity of the price level and the stationarity of the price changes by the unit root test, I use the iPredict data in conjunction with opinion poll data to test whether the polls impact on market pricing behaviour. Using a number of different model types, I find that the opinion poll data has a very limited impact on market prices, suggesting that the information contained in the poll is largely already incorporated into market prices.</p>

A study of efficiency in New Zealand election prediction markers

<p>The development of prediction markets has naturally given rise to studies of their efficiency. Most studies of efficiency in prediction markets have focused on the speed with which they incorporate information. A necessary (but not sufficient) condition of efficiency is that arbitrage opportunities must non-existent or transitory in nature so that the systematic generation of abnormal profits is not possible. Using data from New Zealand’s first prediction market, iPredict, I examine the potential for arbitrage in the contracts for the party vote for the 2011 General Election. Relative to the risk-free interest rate, the returns from arbitrage are generally low, consistent with an efficient market. Regression analysis requires that the data not be subject to the possibility of spurious regressions - something that is not addressed in the literature. After confirming the non-stationarity of the price level and the stationarity of the price changes by the unit root test, I use the iPredict data in conjunction with opinion poll data to test whether the polls impact on market pricing behaviour. Using a number of different model types, I find that the opinion poll data has a very limited impact on market prices, suggesting that the information contained in the poll is largely already incorporated into market prices.</p>

Price dynamics of cryptocurrencies in parallel markets: evidence from Bitcoin exchanges in Brazil

Purpose This paper aims to study the dynamics of bitcoin prices in Brazil, a large emerging economy with an unregulated bitcoin market. Design/methodology/approach First, this study tests if the Law of One Price (LOOP) is valid for bitcoin prices in Brazil, conducting tests with data from three Brazilian exchanges. Next, this study documents bitcoin price dynamics in the short run by studying the price discovery mechanism in these exchanges. This study uses Information Share and Component Share, combining the two measures to obtain an Information Leadership Share (ILS) measure. Findings This study finds a common trend within bitcoin prices among a set of exchanges, with cointegration tests between the price series indicating that LOOP is valid in Brazilian markets in the long run. ILS indicated that, for closing prices, the most liquid exchange (Foxbit) leads discovery, whereas the least liquid (Local Bitcoin) lags, with Mercado Bitcoin in the middle both in terms of discovery and liquidity. Finally, this study provides evidence that the price variation in the market that leads price discovery can be used to construct an arbitrage in another exchange. Originality/value This research brings the first evidence of a price discovery mechanism for exchanges in Brazilian Reais. Although LOOP is valid in the long run, price leadership in bitcoin markets potentially create arbitrage opportunities in the short run. This study contributes to the growing literature of bitcoin prices with novel evidence from a large emerging economy.

Capital Round-Tripping: Determinants of Emerging Market Firm Investments into Offshore Financial Centers and Their Ethical Implications

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in offshore financial centers (OFCs) is gaining increased attention in business ethics research. Much of this research tends to focus on OFCs as locations where firms can avoid taxes, considering such behavior as unethical. Yet, there is dearth of studies on capital round-tripping by emerging market firms, which is an integral part of this phenomenon. Such round-tripping involves firms sending capital into OFCs only to invest it back in the home country under the guise of “foreign” investment. Presently there is little discussion of the ethical implications of such round-trip FDI activities. In this paper, we conceptualize round-tripping as institutional arbitrage and look at the determinants and ethical implications of such investments into OFCs. Exploring Russian round-tripping we note that firms tend to invest more funds in OFCs that offer a combination of tax and secrecy, or secrecy and property rights protection arbitrage opportunities. In either case firms exploit the opportunities provided by institutional differences between the OFC and Russia while investing back into Russia. Our results tend to indicate that equating OFC investment to tax avoidance and thus deeming it as unethical behavior is too narrow an explanation in the case of emerging economy round-tripping. This is because such investments are often motivated by the unethical behavior of home country stakeholders and may in fact provide benefits to society.

Evaluation of dynamic cointegration-based pairs trading strategy in the cryptocurrency market

Purpose This paper aims to demonstrate a dynamic cointegration-based pairs trading strategy, including an optimal look-back window framework in the cryptocurrency market and evaluate its return and risk by applying three different scenarios. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the Engle-Granger methodology, the Kapetanios-Snell-Shin test and the Johansen test as cointegration tests in different scenarios. This study calibrates the mean-reversion speed of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to obtain the half-life used for the asset selection phase and look-back window estimation. Findings By considering the main limitations in the market microstructure, the strategy of this paper exceeds the naive buy-and-hold approach in the Bitmex exchange. Another significant finding is that this study implements a numerous collection of cryptocurrency coins to formulate the model’s spread, which improves the risk-adjusted profitability of the pairs trading strategy. Besides, the strategy’s maximum drawdown level is reasonably low, which makes it useful to be deployed. The results also indicate that a class of coins has better potential arbitrage opportunities than others. Originality/value This research has some noticeable advantages, making it stand out from similar studies in the cryptocurrency market. First is the accuracy of data in which minute-binned data create the signals in the formation period. Besides, to backtest the strategy during the trading period, this study simulates the trading signals using best bid/ask quotes and market trades. This study exclusively takes the order execution into account when the asset size is already available at its quoted price (with one or more period gaps after signal generation). This action makes the backtesting much more realistic.