Price Discovery of Consignment Auctions for Emission Permits

A consignment auction aims to increase political feasibility by reducing the financial burden of initial permits allocation and to do the role of price discovery. However, previous analytical models presented contradictory results for the price discovery function of a consignment auction. Thus, this study reexamines whether a consignment auction can perform its price discovery function. The study uses a simple game model with several assumptions differentiated from previous analytical models: explicit consideration of the secondary market and firms as price-takers with various behaviors to respond to uncertainty about the price in the secondary market. Firms are classified into three types: speculators who seek arbitrage, doctrinarians who determine a permit demand based on an estimation of their marginal abatement cost, and neutralists who keep a permit demand the same as initial emission endowments. The results reveal that when a consignment auction was introduced, the expected equilibrium price was identical to that of the secondary market price, demonstrating that the auction could deliver the price discovery function. This is because speculators and doctrinarians provide information about their price expectations and marginal abatement cost through their estimated demand functions. Additionally, the smaller number of neutralists is, and the higher the risk-seeking propensity of speculators is, the more effective the price discovery function is.

What Drives House Price Cycles? International Experience and Policy Issues

The role of real estate during the global financial and economic crisis has prompted efforts to better incorporate housing and financial channels into macro models, improve housing models, develop macroprudential tools, and reform the financial system. This article provides an overview of major, recent contributions to the literature in relation to earlier research on what drives housing prices and how they affect economic activity. Particularly emphasized are studies, both theoretical and more strongly evidence-based, that connect housing markets with credit markets, house price expectations, financial stability, and the wider economy. The literature reveals much diversity in the international and regional behavior of house prices and the need to improve data tracking key housing supply and demand influences. Also reviewed are studies examining how monetary, macroprudential, and other policies affect house prices and access to housing. This survey is designed to help readers navigate the plethora of recent studies and understand the unsettled issues and avenues for further research. The findings should be of interest to policy makers concerned with financial stability as well as those dealing with the role of housing in the wider economy (JEL E32, E44, E63, G01, G21, R31).

The US Treasury market is vulnerable to stress

Significance The US Treasuries securities market is the world's largest and most liquid financial market, and is relied on by market participants as a basis to price other risks. However, on several occasions in recent years, it has exhibited unusual behaviour under stress and required corrective intervention by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Impacts The rebound remains vulnerable to COVID-19 spread, and the ongoing need for supportive measures will stoke policy conflicts for some time. The firmer link between policy and price expectations means that miscommunication may be more disruptive than in the 2013 ‘taper tantrum’. The Fed tapering of bond purchases over the near term could trigger interest rate rises, testing the resilience of the Treasury market.

Pricing through health apps generated data—Digital dividend as a game changer: Discrete choice experiment

Objectives The objective of this paper is to study under which circumstances wearable and health app users would accept a compensation payment, namely a digital dividend, to share their self-tracked health data. Methods We conducted a discrete choice experiment alternative, a separated adaptive dual response. We chose this approach to reduce extreme response behavior, considering the emotionally-charged topic of health data sales, and to measure willingness to accept. Previous experiments in lab settings led to demands for high monetary compensation. After a first online survey and two pre-studies, we validated four attributes for the final online study: monthly bonus payment, stakeholder handling the data (e.g., health insurer, pharmaceutical or medical device companies, universities), type of data, and data sales to third parties. We used a random utility framework to evaluate individual choice preferences. To test the expected prices of the main study for robustness, we assigned respondents randomly to one of two identical questionnaires with varying price ranges. Results Over a period of three weeks, 842 respondents participated in the main survey, and 272 respondents participated in the second survey. The participants considered transparency about data processing and no further data sales to third parties as very important to the decision to share data with different stakeholders, as well as adequate monetary compensation. Price expectations resulting from the experiment were high; pharmaceutical and medical device companies would have to pay an average digital dividend of 237.30€/month for patient generated health data of all types. We also observed an anchor effect, which means that people formed price expectations during the process and not ex ante. We found a bimodal distribution between relatively low price expectations and relatively high price expectations, which shows that personal data selling is a divisive societal issue. However, the results indicate that a digital dividend could be an accepted economic incentive system to gather large-scale, self-tracked data for research and development purposes. After the COVID-19 crisis, price expectations might change due to public sensitization to the need for big data research on patient generated health data. Conclusion A continuing success of existing data donation models is highly unlikely. The health care sector needs to develop transparency and trust in data processing. An adequate digital dividend could be an effective long-term measure to convince a diverse and large group of people to share high-quality, continuous data for research purposes.

Pengaruh Tipe Petani dan Ekspektasi Harga dalam Sertifikasi Kelapa Sawit

Certification is a compliance in implementing Best Management Practice (BMP) in oil palm plantation businesses. Participation in certification is influenced by several factors, including socio-economic, demographic, environmental, political and other factors. This study to see the effect of farmer types (independent and scheme farmers) and higher price expectations in implementing oil palm certification. Other determinants also studied included income, education, age, pesticide use, farming experience, and location. Through OLS regression analysis, it is known that the farmer types, higher price expectations, income, pesticide use, farming experience, and location are factors that influence the area of certified oil palm plantations.

Accuracy of Households’ Dwelling Valuations, Housing Demand and Mortgage Decisions: Israeli Case

Housing policy, as well as academic research, are increasingly concerned with the role of bias in subjective dwelling valuations as a proximate measure of households’ house price expectations and their relationship with housing demand. This paper contributes to this area of study by exploring the possibility of simultaneous relationships between households’ price expectations and incentive to maximise the size of housing services demanded also accounting for the supply side factors and regional perspective. The empirical estimation takes the form of a system of a two simultaneous equations model applying two stage least squares estimation technique. Cross sectional estimations utilise data extracted from the Israeli Longitudinal Panel Survey (LPS) data. Applying the best available proxy for households’ price expectations, calculated as the ratio between subjective dwelling valuations (LPS) and the estimated market value of the same properties, research has identified the interrelated factors that simultaneously influence householders’ price expectations and housing demand. Results offer conceptual and empirical advantages, highlighting the imperfect nature of the housing market, as reflected by the inseparability of bias in subjective valuations and housing decisions.

Forest to Mill Timber Price Trends and Volatility for Mississippi Timber Products

We examined timber price trends along the Mississippi roundwood supply chain. Quarterly statewide data from Timber Mart-South for pine sawtimber, pine pulpwood, mixed hardwood sawtimber, and pulpwood were obtained covering 1992 to 2018. Prices for stumpage, delivered logs, and timber conversion—measured as the difference between delivered wood and stumpage—were analyzed across products for the 27-year series, as well as three equally spaced 9-year periods (Period 1, 1992 to 2000; Period 2, 2001 to 2009; Period 3, 2010 to 2018). Flat delivered wood prices, increased rates for timber conversion, and declining pine sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage prices were revealed over the long term. Hardwood product prices, however, increased across their supply chains. Prices have generally become less volatile, particularly from Period 2 to Period 3, indicating an increasing degree of price homogeneity within each product's market. The exception to this was pine sawtimber, suggesting resource, locational, and/or market differences may have emerged for this product. The hardwood price trends supported, as appropriate, considering silvicultural options to allow this resource's continued growth. Declining price expectations for pine products call into question any strictly financial rationale for extending rotation length.

Financial stability fears rise as ‘everything’ rallies

Significance There are fears of a bubble reminiscent of the 1990s dot-com mania. The froth is most apparent in US stock markets, where retail traders are wielding increasing influence. Investors' exuberant behaviour across asset classes suggests many participants are losing touch with reality. Impacts If GameStop portends the start of a battle between hedge funds and retail investors, it could have a profound impact on global markets. The dollar index has plunged to its lowest since April 2018 and is set to stay relatively weak, helping to keep financial conditions loose. A market gauge of US price expectations is at its highest since 2013, with the 5-year breakeven rate surging to 2.2% from 0.1% a year ago. ‘Vaccine nationalism’, particularly in Europe, is further politicising the response to the pandemic and endangering the global recovery.

Assessment of the marketing and innovative potential of synbiotic products with herbal biocorrector

The article presents the results of studies of the relationship of potential consumers to new synbiotic products with predictably formed functional, prebiotic properties and biological activity. The assessment of the prospects of including the developed bioactive synbiotic products in the recipes of dishes of public catering enterprises and giving them functional properties is given. The main socio-demographic characteristics and preferences of consumers in relation to synbiotic products with compositions of bioactive plant components have been identified. The trends of needs change, their duality, dilemmas, reality and problems of the main drivers relevant to the modern consumer, price expectations, preferred options for introducing bioactive synbiotic products into the diet are revealed. The study allows us to draw a conclusion about the need to take into account when developing new technologies and reflect in the information and advertising materials the identified consumer expectations regarding the taste, usefulness, safety, convenience and authenticity of new products, including synbiotic with plant-based biological active components, and their Introduction into food recipes is a promising direction for the development of enterprises of the HoReCa segment. The results of the study, carried out with a focus on enterprises in the public catering sector, seem relevant, since the use of synbiotic products with herbal biological components is an expansion of opportunities for food and bio-technologies, public catering organizations with justified socio-economic effect.