Stability in the banking industry and commodity price volatility: perspective from developing economies

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the effect of volatility in prices of internationally traded commodities (the backbone of most economies) on the stability of the banking industry from three main perspectives; bank liquidity reserves, overall bank risk and bank capital adequacy.Design/methodology/approachData were compiled from various sources for 30 emerging economies from 2002 to 2018 and were analyzed using the two-step system generalized method of moments estimation technique.FindingsThe study finds that all things being equal, the magnitude and direction of impact of commodity price volatility on bank stability among economies in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) depend on the type and nature of the commodity in question; and the bank stability proxy used. For instance, an increase in crude oil prices is found to foster stability in the banking industry (proxied by bank liquid reserves) but insignificant when stability in the banking industry is proxied using other banking sector parameters. Additionally, government effectiveness and corruption control have varying moderating influences on how volatility associated with prices of internationally traded commodities influence various proxies for banking industry stability.Originality/valueThis study highlights the effect of fluctuations in prices of key internationally traded commodities (adjusted for foreign exchange impact) that are important sources of revenue among economies in SSA on banking sector stability from liquidity, overall risk and capital adequacy perspectives. The influential role of governance in the relationship between volatility in the price of commodities and bank stability is also revealed by the study.

COMMODITY PRICE AND INFLATION DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM BRIICS

In this study, we use a commodity augmented Phillips curve to investigate the impact of global commodity prices on domestic inflation in Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, and South Africa. Oil and energy prices cause inflationary pressures in all countries, except Russia, where they cause deflationary pressures. In Indiaand Indonesia, global food prices are highly significant and positively related to inflation, while in South Africa precious metal prices impact inflation negatively. For policymakers, this study provides insights on the domestic adjustments required for inflation targeting in response to global commodity price volatility.

Diversification as a panacea for commodity price volatility in sub-Saharan Africa

The prices of hydrocarbons and minerals are subject to severe fluctuations. As a result, commodity dependent countries in sub-Saharan Africa face serious fiscal and balance-of-payment deficits. In the short run, countries respond by changing output levels, withdrawing from sovereign wealth funds, drawing-down reserves, reducing public expenditure, scaling up domestic resource mobilization, and seeking external borrowing. However, all these options have serious drawbacks. In the long run, diversification of sources for tax and foreign exchange is the only viable solution. For instance, in commodity dependent countries, the manufacturing sector contributes 7 per cent of GDP, compared to 13 per cent in other resource dependent economies in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Asia. The current price shock presents yet another opportunity to embark on economic diversification strategies.

Measuring the financial effects of mitigating commodity price volatility in supply chains

Purpose Firms can choose from an array of approaches for reducing the detrimental financial effects caused by unfavorable fluctuations in commodity prices. The purpose of this paper is to provide guidance for effectively estimating the financial effects of mitigating commodity price risk volatility (CPV) in supply chain management decisions. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts two prominent and complementary methodologies, namely, total cost of ownership (TCO and real options valuation (ROV), to illustrate how commodity price risk mitigation strategies can be analyzed with respect to their effect on costs and performance. The paper provides insights through a case study to demonstrate the application of these methods together and establish the benefits and challenges associated with their implementation. Findings The paper illustrates advantages and disadvantages of TCO and ROV and how these approaches can be adopted together to contribute to effective purchasing decisions. Supply chain flexibility is a key capability but requires investments. Holistically measuring the financial effects of flexibility investments is imperative for gaining executive management support in mitigating commodity price volatility. Research limitations/implications This study can provide supply chain professionals with useful guidance for measuring the costs and benefits related to developing strategies for mitigating commodity price volatility. TCO provides a focus on the costs associated with the commodity purchasing process, and ROV enables the aggregation of all the costs and benefits associated with the use of the strategy and synthesizes them into the net value estimate. Originality/value The paper provides a comparison of different but complementary approaches, specifically TCO and ROV, for analyzing the effectiveness of CPV risk mitigation decisions. In addition, these two methods allow supply chain professionals to evaluate and control the financial effects of CPV risk, particularly the impact of mitigation on firm’s cash flows.

Commodity price volatility and economic growth in Africa: the mitigating role of trade policy

The extreme volatile behavior of Africa’s output and consumption is strongly related to the extent of exposure to external shocks in its trade earnings. The volatility of export earnings inherent in African economies depicts trade and export structure not diversified, and the need for development managers in easing the over-arching dependence on commodity exports earnings as a major source of budget financing. This study investigates the effect of commodity price volatility on real GDP using a longitudinal data covering fifty-three African commodity-dependent countries for the period 1970–2017. The theoretical framework is premised on the neoclassical growth model, and the system generalized method of moments (SGMM) estimation technique was adopted. The results from the estimation procedure indicate a negative contemporaneous relationship between commodity price volatility and growth. However, the intervention of policy instruments such as contrasting openness degree signals short-run relief for commodity export-dependent economies, as trade policy mitigates the adverse effect of commodity price volatility on growth.