scholarly journals The impact of commodity price volatility on fiscal balance and the role of real interest rate

Author(s):  
Monoj Kumar Majumder ◽  
Mala Raghavan ◽  
Joaquin Vespignani
Author(s):  
Kamiar Mohaddes ◽  
Jeffrey B. Nugent ◽  
Hoda Selim

This volume aims to improve our understanding of the problems of macroeconomic management in oil-rich Arab economies. In doing so, it emphasizes the role of institutions and the political economy environment underlying them. Most importantly, it attempts to assess the effectiveness of these institutions in delivering macroeconomic stability and growth in the face of commodity price volatility, comparing actual practice in the Arab region with the budgeting procedures and countercyclical fiscal policies and rules shown to be successful in other parts of the world. The analysis here, however, goes considerably beyond that. It utilizes a political economy perspective to explain how budgeting and other fiscal policies are designed and implemented by political and administrative actors in ways that distinguish budget surpluses from deficits and pro-cyclicality from counter-cyclicality. Second, it includes monetary institutions and exchange rate regimes, and the interactions between both of these and both fiscal and political institutions.


This volume contributes to the literature on the Arab World in two main ways. First, the regional focus on the role of institutions and macroeconomic policies fills an enormous research gap as this has been largely understudied, mainly due to the insufficiency of informational disclosure by governments in general and especially fiscal institutions. Hence, an important contribution of this volume is to reveal more detailed information concerning problems and policies of the region’s oil exporters. Second, given the constraints hindering macroeconomic reforms in Arab oil-exporting countries, it offers a novel political economy analysis that examines the ways in which resource endowments affect political regimes and the choice of macroeconomic institutions and policies in oil-rich Arab economies. The four main questions addressed in this volume are: (i) Do institutions (both political and economic) matter for macroeconomic policies in Arab oil exporters, and if so how? (ii) What are the main features of the macroeconomic institutions (fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate regimes) that are most effective in mitigating commodity price volatility, growth volatility, inefficiency in expenditure allocations, and corruption? (iii) How well are existing fiscal institutions performing in terms of fiscal policies and outcomes? (iv) When fiscal institutions are not performing well, what should be done about this?


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nader Naifar

This study investigates the impact of commodity price volatility (including soft commodities, precious metals, industrial metals, and energy) on the dynamics of corporate sukuk returns. Using a sample of sukuk indices from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, we study the dynamic conditional correlation using a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity dynamic conditional correlation (GARCH-DCC) process. Empirical results show a time-varying negative correlation between GCC sukuk returns and commodity prices. In fact, a negative conditional correlation among assets of a given portfolio implies higher gain-to-risk ratios. An understanding of volatility and dynamic co-movements in financial and commodity markets is important for portfolio allocation and risk management practices.


Author(s):  
Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis ◽  

Motivated by agricultural commodity price fluctuations and spikes in the last decade, we investigate whether financial speculation destabilizes the price of agricultural commodities. The aim of this research is to assess the impact of financial speculation on agricultural commodity price volatility. In our study we use weekly returns on wheat, soybean and corn futures from Chicago Mercantile of Exchange. To measure this impact, we apply autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) technique. We also propose a model with seasonal dummy variables to measure if financial speculation impact on price volatility differs among seasons. The results of our research indicate that financial speculation as an exogenous factor has either no effect or reduces the volatility of the underlying futures prices. Therefore, we conclude that the increase of non-commercial market participants does not make the agricultural commodity prices more volatile or this link is at least questionable.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Gaudenzi ◽  
George A. Zsidisin ◽  
Roberta Pellegrino

Purpose Firms can choose from an array of approaches for reducing the detrimental financial effects caused by unfavorable fluctuations in commodity prices. The purpose of this paper is to provide guidance for effectively estimating the financial effects of mitigating commodity price risk volatility (CPV) in supply chain management decisions. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts two prominent and complementary methodologies, namely, total cost of ownership (TCO and real options valuation (ROV), to illustrate how commodity price risk mitigation strategies can be analyzed with respect to their effect on costs and performance. The paper provides insights through a case study to demonstrate the application of these methods together and establish the benefits and challenges associated with their implementation. Findings The paper illustrates advantages and disadvantages of TCO and ROV and how these approaches can be adopted together to contribute to effective purchasing decisions. Supply chain flexibility is a key capability but requires investments. Holistically measuring the financial effects of flexibility investments is imperative for gaining executive management support in mitigating commodity price volatility. Research limitations/implications This study can provide supply chain professionals with useful guidance for measuring the costs and benefits related to developing strategies for mitigating commodity price volatility. TCO provides a focus on the costs associated with the commodity purchasing process, and ROV enables the aggregation of all the costs and benefits associated with the use of the strategy and synthesizes them into the net value estimate. Originality/value The paper provides a comparison of different but complementary approaches, specifically TCO and ROV, for analyzing the effectiveness of CPV risk mitigation decisions. In addition, these two methods allow supply chain professionals to evaluate and control the financial effects of CPV risk, particularly the impact of mitigation on firm’s cash flows.


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