Dynamic inference of healthcare expenditure on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: a dynamic heterogenous panel data analysis

PurposeThis article investigates the dynamic implication of healthcare expenditure on economic growth in the selected ten Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000–2018.Design/methodology/approachThe study methodology included dynamic heterogenous panel, using mean group and pooled mean group estimators. The investigation of the healthcare expenditure and economic growth nexus was achieved while controlling the effects of investment, savings, labor force and life expectancy via interaction terms.FindingsThe results from linear healthcare expenditure have a significant positive impact on economic growth, while the nonlinear estimates through the interaction terms between healthcare expenditure and investment have a negative statistically significant impact on growth. The marginal effect of healthcare expenditure evaluated at the minimum and maximum level of investment is positive, suggesting the impact of health expenditure on growth does not vary with the level of investments. This result responds to the primary objective of the article.Research limitations/implicationsIn policy terms, the impact of investment on healthcare is essential to addressing future health crises. The impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can never be separated from the shortages or low prioritization of health against other sectors of the economy. The article also provides an insight to policymakers on the demand for policy reform that will boost and make the health sector attractive to both domestic and foreign direct investment.Originality/valueGiven the vulnerability of SSA to the health crisis, there are limited studies to examine this phenomenon and first to address the needed investment priorities to the health sector infrastructure in SSA.

Governance quality and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: the dynamic panel model

PurposeThe main objective of this article is to analyze the role of governance quality in influencing the economic growth of 22 selected Sub-Saharan African Countries.Design/methodology/approachThe study applied the panel dynamic Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to analyze the data obtained from the World Bank database over the period from 2002 to 2020.FindingsThe overall finding indicated that the composite governance index has a positive significant effect on the economic growth of the countries; where a unit improvement in the aggregate governance index leads to a 3.05% increase in GDP. The disaggregated result has shown that corruption control and government effectiveness have a negative significant effect on growth performance, whereas, the rule of law and regulatory quality showed a positive significant effect. Political stability and voice and accountability have an insignificant effect on economic growth.Research limitations/implicationsDue to data limitations, this study could not address the whole members of Sub Sahara African Countries and could not see the causal relationship.Practical implicationsThe study suggested a strong commitment to the implementation of policy and reform measures on all governance factors. This may add to the need to devise participatory corruption control mechanisms; to closely look at the proper implementation of policies and reforms that constitute the government effectiveness factors, and properly implement the rule of law at all levels of the government with a strong commitment to realizing it so that citizens at all levels can have full confidence in and abide by the rules of society.Originality/valueEven though there are some studies conducted using conventional methods of panel data analysis such as random effect or fixed effects, this empirical study used more advanced panel dynamic generalized moment of methods to examine the role of improvement in governance quality on economic growth.

Intention to adopt cryptocurrency: a robust contribution of trust and the theory of planned behavior

PurposeAt present, the adoption of cryptocurrency investment has brought consideration to the globe. The present paper attempts to investigate the intention to adopt cryptocurrency (IACR) among the potential investors of Pakistan.Design/methodology/approachThe theory of planned behavior (TPB) is applied to underpin the conceptual framework. The study uses a quantitative approach. The study collects cross-sectional data through an online survey questionnaire. In the last, the authors utilized 334 samples for outcomes.FindingsFindings of the SEM reveal a significant positive effect of attitude, subjective norms (SNs), perceived behavioral control (PBC) and trust on IACR.Practical implicationsThe outcomes of an investigation would develop further intention and trust towards cryptocurrency adoption. The results would support developing favorable policies regarding the reduction of the ban on cryptocurrency in Pakistan to make easier transactions of the investors further. Possibly, it brings several opportunities in all segments of society in making the digital transaction modes through cryptocurrency. Finally, the findings would further validate the TPB in the context of cryptocurrency.Originality/valueThe study provides a better understanding of cryptocurrency and investors IACR. The empirical evidence further develops the other individuals' intentions towards cryptocurrency usage.

Merton-type default risk and financial performance: the dynamic panel moderation of firm size

PurposeThe main purpose of this study is to evaluate the probability of default and examine the relationship between default risk and financial performance, with dynamic panel moderation of firm size.Design/methodology/approachThis study utilizes a total of 1,500 firm-year observations from 2013 to 2018 using dynamic panel data approach of generalized method of moments to test the relationship between default risk and financial performance with the moderation effect of the firm size.FindingsThis study establishes the findings that default risk significantly impacts the financial performance. The relationship between distance-to-default (DD) and financial performance is positive, which means the relationship of the independent and dependent variable is inverse. Moreover, this study finds that the firm size is a significant positive moderator between DD and financial performance.Practical implicationsThis study provides new and useful insight into the literature on the relationship between default risk and financial performance. The results of this study provide investors and businesses related to nonfinancial firms in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) with significant default risk's impact on performance. This study finds, on average, the default probability in KSE ALL indexed companies is 6.12%.Originality/valueThe evidence of the default risk and financial performance on samples of nonfinancial firms has been minimal; mainly, it has been limited to the banking sector. Moreover, the existing studies have only catered the direct effect of only. This study fills that gap and evaluates this relationship in nonfinancial firms. This study also helps in the evaluation of Merton model's performance in the nonfinancial firms.

MFS usage intention during COVID-19 and beyond: an integration of health belief and expectation confirmation model

Purpose The usage rate of mobile financial services (MFS) has shown an uptick since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. This study aims to reveal the underpinning reasons for such MFS surge and its continuance by integrating health belief model (HBM) and expectation confirmation model (ECM).Design/methodology/approach The study analyzes 529 MFS users' responses during the second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Bangladesh using the partial least square method.Findings Satisfaction is more predictive than perceived usefulness in explaining continuance usage intention. Expectation confirmation also indirectly affects continuance intention. Among the HBM constructs, the indirect effect of perceived severity on continuance intention via perceived usefulness and satisfaction is significant. Besides, the impact of self-efficacy on continuance intention is also significant. Moreover, perceived credibility significantly affects satisfaction and indirectly affected continuance usage intention via satisfaction.Practical implications The study projects boosting customers' satisfaction is critical for the successful retention of existing MFS customers. MFS service providers should emphasize the factors that amplify satisfaction. They must evaluate preadoption factors so that customers can have positive confirmation. Especially, the service providers, the policymakers and the regulators should take an active role in improving the users' self-efficacy and the system's credibility. Undertaking the MFS literacy program, installing hotline service to provide emergency help will boost users' confidence in using the system.Originality/value The study is a unique contribution in the context of Bangladesh. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no previous MFS studies in Bangladesh explored MFS continuance usage intention during COVID-19 and beyond. Besides, the inclusion of “perceived credibility” in the framework will supplement the earlier studies conducted on this aspect.

Socioeconomic analysis of infectious diseases based on different scenarios using uncertain SEIAR system dynamics with effective subsystems and ANFIS

PurposeThis paper aims to analyze the socioeconomic impacts of infectious diseases based on uncertain behaviors of social and effective subsystems in the countries. The economic impacts of infectious diseases in comparison with predicted gross domestic product (GDP) in future years could be beneficial for this aim along with predicted social impacts of infectious diseases in countries.Design/methodology/approachThe proposed uncertain SEIAR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, asymptomatic and removed) model evaluates the impacts of variables on different trends using scenario base analysis. This model considers different subsystems including healthcare systems, transportation, contacts and capacities of food and pharmaceutical networks for sensitivity analysis. Besides, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to predict the GDP of countries and determine the economic impacts of infectious diseases. These proposed models can predict the future socioeconomic trends of infectious diseases in each country based on the available information to guide the decisions of government planners and policymakers.FindingsThe proposed uncertain SEIAR model predicts social impacts according to uncertain parameters and different coefficients appropriate to the scenarios. It analyzes the sensitivity and the effects of various parameters. A case study is designed in this paper about COVID-19 in a country. Its results show that the effect of transportation on COVID-19 is most sensitive and the contacts have a significant effect on infection. Besides, the future annual costs of COVID-19 are evaluated in different situations. Private transportation, contact behaviors and public transportation have significant impacts on infection, especially in the determined case study, due to its circumstance. Therefore, it is necessary to consider changes in society using flexible behaviors and laws based on the latest status in facing the COVID-19 epidemic.Practical implicationsThe proposed methods can be applied to conduct infectious diseases impacts analysis.Originality/valueIn this paper, a proposed uncertain SEIAR system dynamics model, related sensitivity analysis and ANFIS model are utilized to support different programs regarding policymaking and economic issues to face infectious diseases. The results could support the analysis of sensitivities, policies and economic activities.Highlights:A new system dynamics model is proposed in this paper based on an uncertain SEIAR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Asymptomatic, and Removed) to model population behaviors;Different subsystems including healthcare systems, transportation, contacts, and capacities of food and pharmaceutical networks are defined in the proposed system dynamics model to find related sensitivities;Different scenarios are analyzed using the proposed system dynamics model to predict the effects of policies and related costs. The results guide lawmakers and governments' actions for future years;An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) in future years and analyze effects of COVID-19 based on them;A real case study is considered to evaluate the performances of the proposed models.

Volatility spillovers among G7, E7 stock markets and cryptocurrencies

PurposeThe existence of long memory and persistent volatility characteristics of cryptocurrencies justifies the investigation of return and volatility/shock spillovers between traditional financial market asset classes and cryptocurrencies. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between the cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum, and stock market indices of G7 and E7 countries to analyze the return and volatility spillover patterns among these markets by means of multivariate (MGARCH) approach.Design/methodology/approachApplying the newly developed VAR-GARCH-in mean framework with the BEKK representation, the empirical results reveal that there exists an evidence of mean and volatility spillover effects among Bitcoin and Ethereum as the proxies for the cryptocurrencies, and stock markets reviewed.FindingsInterestingly, the direction of the return and volatility spillover effects is unidirectional in most E7 countries, but bidirectional relationship was found in most G7 countries. This can be explained as the presence of a strong return and volatility interaction among G7 stock markets and crypto market.Originality/valueOverall, the results of this study are of particular interest for portfolio management since it provides insights for financial market participants to make better portfolio allocation decisions. It is also increasingly important to understand the volatility transmission mechanism across these markets to provide policymakers and regulatory bodies with guidance to eliminate the negative impact of cryptocurrency's volatility on the stability of financial markets.

Effects of other comprehensive income on audit fees and audit report lag in Egyptian firms: does board gender diversity matter?

PurposeThis paper aims to (1) investigate the effect of other comprehensive income (OCI) on audit fees (AF) and audit report lag (ARL) and (2) test the moderating effect of board gender diversity (BGD) on such relationships.Design/methodology/approachThis paper uses data extracted from the financial reports for a sample of Egyptian firms from 2013 to 2019, where the data are processed using the Panel Corrected Standards Errors (PCSE) and the Structure Equation Model (SEM).FindingsThe results reveal that (1) the OCI existence and OCI volume have a significant positive effect on AF and ARL, and (2) the presence of female directors on the board and the percentage of female representation affect the relationship between OCI and AF positively, but this effect on the relationship between OCI and ARL is insignificant.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper has some limitations, where the analysis uses a small sample of Egyptian listed firms, as well as, the measures that were used as proxies of the study variables, which do not necessarily express the most suitable ones.Practical implicationsThe results of this paper would (1) provide signals to the audit market, the professional bodies in Egypt and stakeholders about the determinants of AF and ARL, (2) provide guidelines that support the capital market authority to consider gender diversity in boards of companies taking into considerations its impact on AF and ARL, and (3) help the accounting setters in emerging economies as Egypt in drafting more suitable standards and guidelines regarding OCI.Originality/valueThis paper adds to the literature on OCI, where it investigates the effect of OCI on ARL, which was not yet studied in prior studies. Also, this paper complements and extends the literature by providing empirical evidence from one of the emerging markets as Egypt about the effect of BGD on the relationships between OCI, AF and ARL, as these relationships have not been examined before.

Modeling the volatility of exchange rate and international trade in Ghana: empirical evidence from GARCH and EGARCH

PurposeThe volatility of exchange rate has generally been sighted as a primary cause for various shocks and instability in international trade of Ghana as witnessed over the years and most especially in recent times. Hence, owing to the increasing trade levels between Ghana and Ghana's global trading partners, the study aims to investigate if the trade–exchange rate volatility nexus in Ghana supports the positive, negative or ambiguous hypotheses?Design/methodology/approachThe study investigates the effects of Ghana's exchange rate volatility on international trade by designing import and export equations to estimate both short- and long-run specifications of the effect and employing the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) with Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (BEKK) specification developed by Engle and Kroner (1995) as a further check for the robustness of the findings. Monthly data between 1993 and 2017 on the real effective exchange rates of Ghana's trade with 143 trading partners were taken as the series for modeling the volatility using GARCH andexponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) models.FindingsThe empirical results show that the volatility of exchange rate negatively impact export performances in the Ghanian economy. On the other hand, there was no sufficient evidence to support the observed positive effect of exchange rate volatility on imports, as the effects were only significant at 10% level in the long run. Thus, it is concluded that the finding cannot confirm a relationship between volatility and import. Thus, the results present differences in the direction of the effect of exchange rate volatility on imports and exports in the context of the Ghanaian economy.Research limitations/implicationsConsidering the fragility of the Ghanaian economy and Ghana's macro-economic indicators, the study points at the crucial need for more integration of well-informed trade policies within the country's macro-economic policy framework to contain the impacts of exchange rate volatility on trade performances.Practical implicationsThe study contributes to literature by scope and method. More specifically, empirical studies have failed or provided little evidence uniquely on the Ghanaian economy's reaction to exchange rate volatility on the country's imports and exports. Additionally, most of the existing empirical studies measure exchange rate volatility using the standard deviation of the moving averages of the logarithmic transformation of exchange rates. This method is criticized because the method is unsuccessful in capturing the effects of potential booms and bursts of the exchange rate. The authors' study circumvents for these highlighted pitfalls.Social implicationsThe study contributes to literature by scope and method. More specifically, empirical studies have failed or provided little evidence uniquely on the Ghanaian economy's reaction to exchange rate volatility on the country's imports and exports. Thus, the study chat a course for socio-economic dynamic of Ghanaian economy.Originality/valueThe study contributes to literature by its scope and method, as extant empirical studies have provided little evidence specifically on the Ghanaian economy's reaction to exchange rate volatility. Additionally, most of the existing empirical studies measure exchange rate volatility using the standard deviation of the moving averages of the logarithmic transformation of exchange rates. This method is criticized because of the method's inadequacies in capturing the effects of potential booms and bursts of the exchange rate. The study thereby essentially circumvents for these highlighted pitfalls.

A validity of environmental Kuznets curve under the role of urbanization, financial development index and foreign direct investment in Pakistan

PurposeThis research aims to inspect the existence of the “environmental Kuznets curve” (EKC) in the presence of foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development (FD) and urbanization throughout 1972–2018 for Pakistan.Design/methodology/approachFor time series analysis, Phillips and Perron (PP) and Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root tests are used to confirm the level of integration. For robustness, Kim and Perron (2009)’s structural break unit root test is employed, which identifies the order of integration in the presence of structural break years. Further, combined cointegration analysis is performed to confirm the existence of a long-run association between underlying variables. Furthermore, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis is employed for the robustness of the cointegration approach.FindingsThe cointegration analysis confirms the existence of a long-run association among variables. The authors find a positive and significant impact of urbanization, FD and foreign development on environmental degradation in the long run. Similarly, only FDI increases environmental degradation in the short run. In addition, the authors find an inverted U-shape relationship between economic growth and environmental quality which, further, confirms the presence of EKC in Pakistan.Originality/valueThis research contributes to applied economics in many ways: the combined effect of urbanization, FD, FDI and economic growth on carbon dioxide (CO2) emission is checked simultaneously. To avoid ambiguity, this study constructs the FD index through the principal component analysis (PCA). Moreover, the role of structural breaks has been considered through the analysis. Novel Bayer-Hanck combined cointegration analysis is employed to detect the existence of long-run relationships among underlying variables.