Ageing and population shrinking: implications for sustainability in the urban century

Population ageing and shrinking are demographic phenomena with far-reaching implications for sustainability in the current context of extensive and rapid urbanization. This Perspective rationalizes their interface by (a) identifying the challenges and opportunities that ageing and shrinking urban populations will have for implementing the sustainable development goals (SDGs), and (b) discussing some emerging interventions to capitalise on the opportunities and reduce the challenges to achieving sustainability. We argue that a diverse set of context-specific technological, socioeconomic, institutional and governance interventions would be needed to leverage effectively the opportunities and minimize the risks posed by ageing and shrinking urban populations for long-term sustainability.

Japan's Far More Female Future

The Japan that the world admired during the 2019 Rugby World Cup is a model of social stability, resilience, and efficiency. But it carries important vulnerabilities, rooted in its ageing demography and a population shrinking by 500,000 a year, made much worse by a declining marriage rate and low fertility, both of which have their source in a combination of growing financial insecurity, severe gender inequality, and poor use of human capital. Over the three decades since its 1990 financial crisis it has seen a deep divide emerge in labour markets both for men and for women between the 60 per cent of ‘regular’ workers who benefit from training and security, and the 40 per cent of ‘non-regular’ workers who have a precarious, untrained, lowly paid existence. To overcome its vulnerabilities will require reforms to improve the use of the country’s superbly educated human capital, by reducing insecurity for both men and women, and by greatly narrowing the gender gap. An opportunity is presenting itself thanks to a big rise in female entry to university education during the 1990s and 2000s and to the emergence of a wide range of role models able to give inspiration and confidence to the next generation. Japan is already becoming a place with more female leaders in politics and even business, but that rise is from a very low base. If that process can be accelerated by both public policy and private action, Japan could achieve much greater social justice and sustainable prosperity in the decades to come.

The Legacy of the Heisei Era, 1989–2019

During the three decades that have passed since Japan’s huge financial crash in 1990, the country has been politically stable and its geopolitical circumstances have barely changed. But it has seen fundamental economic and social changes which have left it vulnerable: the move from a relatively young population to be the world’s oldest society, with total population shrinking every year since 2010; the move from being an economic growth champion to a relative laggard, with slow annual productivity growth; the transformation of the Bank of Japan from being an economic disciplinarian to being the enabler of a huge public debt and financing public spending by printing money; the emergence of a deeply divided, dual labour market in which two-fifths of the workforce are in lowly paid, precarious jobs with little skill development; a decline in the rate of marriage and of fertility; and yet simultaneously a dramatic narrowing of the gender gap in tertiary education as female entry into four-year university courses grew remarkably during the 1990s and 2000s. This leaves Japan with eroding male human capital, increased insecurity, and under-employed female human capital.

Negative Effects of Shrinking Cities and the Dilemma of Their Sustainable Development

<p><strong>Abstract:</strong> Urban shrinkage has become a global phenomenon, occurring all over the world. Faced with the reduction of population, shrinking cities will continue to lose the vitality of development, and it is difficult to achieve the past glory. How to realize the sustainable development of shrinking cities will become an important issue, which deserves our in-depth study. We will apply big data to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of the population of shrinking cities. Urban shrinkage will lead to a series of chain reactions, reflected in all aspects of social and economic development. Shops are closing down constantly, and there are very few visitors to the commercial streets at night. Industrial enterprises have moved to other places, and urban employment and financial income have declined sharply. The city's economy will face the risk of collapse. Consequently, the lack of maintenance of infrastructure and public service facilities, the decrease of residents' income and the decrease of residents' happiness lead to the lack of cohesion in urban society. The sustainable development of shrinking cities will face great difficulties. Therefore, we must be aware of the seriousness of this problem and take necessary actions to reduce the negative effects of urban shrinkage.</p><p><strong>Key words:</strong> Shrinking cities, sustainable development, society, economy</p>

The Destruction of Participation

This article describes a current dilemma of urban planning in cities of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR). The process of demographic shrinking, and the increasing growth of the more privileged to suburbia since the early 1990s had dramatic consequences, especially on cities with large-scale settlements (Großsiedlungen) that once had been built especially for sites based on heavy industries. This paper argues that far from the banal, grey and depressing stigma attached to them at present, some of these housing projects, particularly the one for Leipzig-Grünau represented one of the most enthusiastic experiments to realise societal utopias. The study looks particularly at the role of residents' participation in the success and development of their estate. However, at the moment when buildings are being demolished public participation in determining the fate of their urban environment, seems futile and redundant. These often random and short-sighted demolitions undermine the housing estates' cohesiveness, which in turn helps to dilute the residents' sense of pride and privilege. It seems almost as though population ‘shrinking’ was part of a plan to re-appropriate the city by erasing the ‘unfamiliar’ fabric of a competing ideology. The paper investigates how this process is played out, what form it takes and how the configuration and coherence of the urban fabric is affected by a complicated sequence of chain reactions which degrade the attractiveness of the area to such a degree that demolition appears as the only possible solution. An intentional cultural-political policy of de-familiarisation takes place and demolition is made to appear all but unavoidable.