BENFORD'S LAW AND NUMERICAL STYLIZATION OF MONETARY VALUATIONS IN CLASSICAL LITERATURE

In an article published in this journal in 1996, I surveyed number stylization in monetary amounts recorded in Roman-era literature up to the Severan period. I argued that certain leading digits such as 1, 3 and 4 were heavily over-represented in the evidence. For the limited samples I used at the time these findings are not in need of revision. However, as I show here, a more inclusive approach to the material produces a substantially different picture. The most significant shortcoming of my study was my failure to take account of the probable distribution of leading digits in a random sample, which may serve as a benchmark for assessing the nature and extent of number preference. While I noted that lower leading digits were inherently more likely to occur than higher ones, I schematically related observed frequencies to an even distribution of leading digits (in which each of them is expected to make up one-ninth of the total). This benchmarking strategy is invalidated by a widely observed phenomenon known as Benford's Law, according to which leading digits frequently conform to a predictable pattern that greatly favours lower over higher numbers. This is true in particular if observations are spread across several orders of magnitude. Ancient monetary valuations satisfy this condition since recorded amounts range from single digits to hundreds of millions. Yet, to the best of my knowledge, Benford's Law has never been applied to the study of these data.

…Maar win je er stemmen mee? De impact van Twittergebruik door politici bij de Nederlandse Tweede Kamerverkiezingen van 12 september 2012

…But does it win you votes? The impact of politicians’ Twitter usage during the Dutch parliamentary elections in 2012 …But does it win you votes? The impact of politicians’ Twitter usage during the Dutch parliamentary elections in 2012 One of the most relevant questions for campaigners and politicians is: what determines the number of votes a candidate gets? Recent studies have shown that usage of social media such as Twitter might have a (modest) impact on the number preference votes of a candidate. However, these studies used data on elections in which only a very limited group of politicians used Twitter. In such a context it was easy for a candidate to stand out. It remains to be seen whether this effect also holds in times of widespread usage. This study examines the impact of Twitter use in the Dutch 2012 national elections and as such replicates previous studies in a changed context. This provides new test to assess whether there (still) is an impact of social media usage on preference votes. It uses a unique dataset of all 531 candidates of the parties that won at least one seat in the 2012 election. Between 2010 and 2012, Twitter use skyrocketed: the number of candidates having an account increased from 34.1 to 75.5% and the average number of tweets increased from 3.6 to 9.7 per politician a day. In this new context of widespread Twitter usage, there seems to be a modest effect of tweeting. Comparing these results to those of previous studies suggests that in 2012 the situation was more equalized: more candidates seemed to have something to win, but the number of extra votes that Twitter yielded, was considerably lower. As such it seems that the competition has become much fiercer.