LEGAL FORECASTING IN THE FIELD OF CIVIL PROCEEDINGS IN THE CONTEXT OF DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES

The article is devoted to the study of possibilities of application of methods and means of legal forecasting for law-making, judicial law-enforcement and rendering legal assistance in the context of the development of information technology in civil proceedings. Forecasting technologies are being examined on the example of the analysis of one of draft laws in the context of civil proceedings. The article deals with the issues of formation of working groups of futurologists, data collection during examination of the forecast background using digital technologies, creation of forecast legal models in assessing legal risks with the use of computer software applications. The author emphasizes the importance of participation of academic community in legal forecasting, as well as the need to develop the foundations of legal regulation of the use of prognostic technologies and the need for the State control in this area.

CONFERENCE AND BUSINESS TOURISM IN RUSSIA: ANALYZING THE FORECAST BACKGROUND

The article gives an evaluation of the key indicators of Russian tourism development and aims at forming basic approaches to forecast background analysis which would facilitate forward planning in terms of Russia’s conference and business tourism development.

Estimation of Multivariate Observation-Error Statistics for AMSU-A Data

Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSU-A) observation-error covariances are objectively estimated by comparing satellite radiances with radiosonde data. Channels 6–8 are examined as being weakly dependent on the surface and on the stratosphere above the radiosonde top level. Significant horizontal, interchannel, temporal, and intersatellite correlations are found. Besides, cross correlations between satellite and forecast (background) errors (largely disregarded in practical data assimilation) proved to be far from zero. The directional isotropy hypothesis is found to be valid for satellite error correlations. Dependencies on the scan position, the season, and the satellite are also checked. Bootstrap simulations demonstrate that the estimated covariances are statistically significant. The estimated correlations are shown to be caused by the satellite errors in question and not by other (nonsatellite) factors.