Enabling Change

This chapter provides a pragmatic perspective on enabling the changes needed to substantially enhance failure management practices. The behavioral and social nature of human decision making is reviewed. Decision-making vignettes are provided to illustrate the general human phenomena of interest. Societal views and practices of system maintenance are considered. Broader perspectives on economic, legal, political, and social aspects of change are reviewed. Numerous examples of computational approaches to change are summarized.

Failures of Complex Ecosystems

This chapter addresses failures in healthcare (AIDS and Opioids Epidemics), the economy (Great Depression and Recession), and the environment (Population and Climate). Multi-level analyses are used to provide comparisons across case studies. How these types of domains anticipate and manage failures are briefly reviewed. Surveilling versus controlling failures are contrasted. These insights are used to foreshadow later discussions of failure management.

Multi-Level Framework

This chapter broadens the perspective on causes of failures, enabling the deeper analyses of subsequent chapters addressing proximate, distal, and ultimate causes. The rich history of multi-level analysis and modeling is briefly reviewed, citing key contributions by a wide range of research disciplines. Numerous applications of the multi-level framework in a variety of domains, including healthcare delivery, academia, traffic congestion, and air transport are discussed, including the insights gained from use of the framework. An overall methodology for applying this framework is presented and elaborated. The application of this methodology to the line of reasoning throughout this book is summarized.

Introduction and Overview

This chapter provides a broad discussion of the nature of failures and introduces the themes of the book. Key terms are defined. The 18 case studies are introduced and discussed quite briefly. The need for a framework for analysis across the 18 case studies is discussed. A brief overview of the book is provided.

Multi-Level Analyses

This chapter summarizes the findings from Chapters 3–5 and provides a range of observations on these findings, articulating common elements across the three domains. An amended multi-level framework is discussed. The use of computational models and interactive visualizations is introduced. The resulting integrated perspective provides the basis for addressing failure management in ways that apply to all 18 case studies.

Failure Management

This chapter addresses the notion of failure management in depth, proposing an overall integrated approach to failure management via surveillance and control. Failure management tasks are defined, and failure surveillance and control are discussed. The conceptual design of an integrated decision support is presented. The applicability to all 18 case studies is discussed. The role of artificial intelligence (AI) in failure management is considered.

Failures of Complex Organizations

This chapter addresses failures in the photography market (Kodak and Polaroid), computer market (Digital and Xerox), and communications market (Motorola and Nokia). Multi-level analyses are used to provide comparisons across case studies. It briefly reviews how these types of companies anticipate and manage failures. The notion of “creative destruction” is elaborated. These insights are used to foreshadow later discussions of failure management.

Failures of Complex Systems

This chapter addresses failures in the nuclear power industry (Three Mile Island and Chernobyl), NASA space operations (Challenger and Columbia), and the maritime industry (Exxon Valdez and BP Deepwater Horizon). Multi-level analyses are used to provide comparisons across case studies. It briefly reviews how these industries anticipate and manage failures, and higher-order consequences of these types of failures are discussed. These insights are used to foreshadow later discussions of failure management.