Wrapping Up

Chapter 7 summarizes the key findings reported from the case studies involving contests in Georgia, Kansas, South Carolina, Montana, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio, and Alabama, and quantitative analyses of almost three hundred special elections to Congress. Review of these special elections points to generalizations about the factors that lead to successes in these contests, and also how a political party might proceed if it hopes to win a seat away from the opposite party.

Do Special Elections Tell Anything about Upcoming General Elections?

Chapter 6 presents quantitative analyses on 298 special election contests held since World War II. The authors model two features associated with special elections. The first analysis seeks to understand the correlates of winning a special election. The second set of models explores whether results of special elections shed light on which party will excel in the next general election.

Other Special Elections Held in the Wake of Trump’s Win

Despite the predominant focus on Georgia Sixth’s contest, other special elections had similar high stakes. That is, in 2017 in Kansas, Montana, and to a lesser extent South Carolina, special elections to fill House vacancies were viewed as tests of public support for the president, his administration, and the policies he pursued. The testing in the House continued into 2018 in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Ohio, and in the Senate in late 2017 in Alabama. Each of these contests is analyzed in Chapter 4. The latter part of the chapter looks for similarities across the seven House contests and the Alabama Senate election. From this analysis come suggestions for how the underdog party might maximize its prospects for winning when the opposition begins the special election contest with an advantage.

The Place of Special Elections

Special elections rarely attract the attention of scholars, in contrast with journalists, who often focus on these events as predictors of what will happen in the next regular election. Special elections have never attracted more media coverage and financial support than during 2017–2018. Chapter 1 introduces the historical context, nature, and significant impact of special elections on the U.S. Congress, where at times they have provided entry to more legislators than the defeat of incumbents in regularly scheduled elections. This chapter also provides the theoretical framework for analyzing special elections and reviews the authors’ planned case studies and quantitative analyses.

The 2017 Runoff in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District

Georgia requires a majority vote to win a special election. Had a candidate in the April jungle primary polled a majority, that would have sufficed. But no candidate won outright, so the top two finishers, Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel, advanced to a runoff held nine weeks later. Chapter 3 details each campaign’s activities and the substantial sums of money infused into the contest, making it the most expensive House race in the United States. Yet, in the end even with the initial electoral vote and fundraising advantages to Ossoff, significant voter turnout, and what many believed a divided and disgruntled GOP, the contest became largely a standard partisan face-off.

Money, Money Everywhere but Did It Make Any Difference?

The cost of winning a congressional seat has increased so dramatically that candidates must, on average, raise and spend more than one million dollars. Yet, significant changes are evident in the campaign financial domain. Candidates and their contributors are less prominent factors in the money train. Hundreds of groups, committees, and organizations are spending millions of dollars to push messages, support friends, and defeat partisan foes. Although some resources on the financing of the contests appear in previous chapters, given the record-setting amounts spent in these special elections, Chapter 5 is devoted exclusively to an examination of where the money came from and what it was used for. Republicans tried to make the source of mammoth Democratic funding—most of which came from out of state—an issue.

The Special Election Primary in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District

Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District special election seemed the potential harbinger of change to the U.S. House and a referendum on the Trump presidency. Chapter 2 examines the first stage, a jungle primary election held in April 2017, where eighteen candidates competed. Much of what took place in the first round of this special election process to select Representative Tom Price’s replacement resulted from a miscalculation by Republicans. Viable GOP candidates expected that they were competing not for one but two opportunities to advance to the runoff. Soon the contest revealed a divided electorate, coalescing support to one Democrat and splitting the remaining votes among the field of Republicans. The campaign strategies and appeals made by the five leading candidates, four Republicans and one Democrat, and the response they received by the voters are examined.