Statistics and Economics
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Published By Plekhanov Russian University Of Economics (Prue)
Information Opportunities of Administrative Data on Residential Real Estate Transactions for Calculating the House Prices in Russia’s Housing Market
Purpose of the study. Development, justification and testing of a methodology for improving statistical monitoring of average prices in the Russian housing market, based on the use of registration information of the Unified State Register of Real Estate (USRN) on transactions for the purchase of residential real estate, in accordance with international statistical standards for Residential Property Price statistics.Materials and methods. The theoretical basis of the study was the United Nations system of national accounts (version of 2008), including the European system of accounts as amended in 2010. The research methodological base was made up of official statistical sources: metadata and international statistics guidelines in the field of national accounting, Handbook on Residential Property Price Indices and related housing indicators, as well as methodological provisions and an album of Rosstat forms, and methodological materials of the administrative statistics of the Federal Service for State Registration, Cadastre and Cartography of the Russian Federation (Rosreestr). The depersonalized registration data on households’ market transactions of the Unified State Register of Property Rights and Transactions maintaining by Rosreestr were used as an information database of the research.Results. The main result of the study is the design and substantiation of a system of indicators for the construction of an integrated information source for Residential Property Price statistics, on the base on interdepartmental information interaction.Conclusion. The proposed system of indicators will provide a highquality database that could be used in order to construct constant quality House Prices for various types of homogeneous residential property in the housing market, complying with the concepts of international statistical standards.
The purpose of the study. Tourism is a priority area of economic development. Short-term accommodation of tourists plays an important role in the tourism industry. The indicator of the number of persons placed in collective accommodation facilities is used to determine the tourist flow in the context of the regions of the Russian Federation. The approach we have used in this study aims to analyze the activity of collective accommodation facilities and assess their contributionto the economy of the Russian Federation regions based on current statistical information. The research was carried out at the expense of budgetary funds on the state assignment to the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. The study focuses on:analysis of the activity of collective accommodation facilities on the territory of Russia,testing the hypothesis that the differences in the main indicators, characterizing the activity of collective accommodation facilities are due to the influence of the territorial factor,evaluate the efficiency of functioning of collective accommodation facilities and their profitability, and highlight the regions of Russia with low, medium and high levels of profitability of tourist accommodation facilities,assess the contribution of the activity of collective accommodation facilities for tourists to the economy of the regions of Russia. Materials and methods. In the paper, the authors considered definitions, classification, a system of indicators that form a methodological basis for statistical observation of the activity of collective accommodation facilities and their presentation in accordance with the current international and national statistical standards. We applied the grouping method, structural and dynamic data analysis. The hypothesis of the normal distribution of the data was tested on the basis of the Shapiro-Wilk Test. The hypothesis that the differences in indicators characterizing tourist activity are due to the influence of the regional factor was tested using the nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis Test. To assess the contribution of the activity of collective accommodation facilities to the economy of the Russian region, the authors calculated an integral index assessing the resources and results of tourism activities in the region. The analysis was carried out according to 5 indicators characterizing tourist activity in 82 regions of the Russian Federation in 2019.Results. The study found that the territorial factor has a statistically significant effect on the number of seats for receiving tourists, the number of accommodated persons, the number of overnight stays. At the same time, the differences in the distribution of the collective accommodation facilities over the territory of Russia are caused not by the belonging of the region of Russia to a certain federal district, but by other factors. The study also made it possible to come to the conclusion that, in terms of the profitability of collective accommodation facilities, the regions of Russia are extremely heterogeneous. The authors identified groups of Russian regions with profitability of collective accommodation facilities below average, above average and high. The integral index, based on the resources and results of tourist activity, made it possible to determine the regions of Russia, in which the results of tourist activities are ahead, correspond or lag behind the available resources for the implementation of tourist activities. Conclusion. The results obtained will make it possible to correlate the resources of each Russian region for the implementation of tourist activities with its results. An increase in the number of accommodations, an increase in their level of comfort, accessibility, and convenient location will give an impetus to the development of the tourism sector in Russia; arouse interest in tourist trips both among citizens of the country and among foreign guests. The regional aspect of the location of accommodation facilities is extremely important, since it is not only the basic position of the tourist infrastructure, but also has a direct impact on the contribution of tourist activity to the economy of the region of Russia. Therefore, the issue of the influence of accommodation facilities on the region’s economy requires further study.
The purpose of the study is to develop a parametric monitoring system for defense industry enterprises, optimizing on the principle of minimum sufficiency a set of key indicators of the activities of organizations and increasing the efficiency of management of research institutes, design bureaus, industrial and service enterprises of the military-industrial complex.Materials and methods. The methodological and theoretical basis of the presented scientific work is a system of mathematical methods for analyzing empirical data on the object of study, providing objective, accurate and systematic information on the researched processes. The reliability of scientific provisions, conclusions and practical recommendations is confirmed by the experience of applying the results of the study in the analysis of the activities of enterprises of Concern Almaz-Antey JSC, as well as comparing them with the results of research by domestic and foreign scientists in the field of organizing a management system for high-tech companies. Author relied on actual statistical information about the activities of organizations of the military-industrial complex, the results of research in the field of mathematical analysis, organization and planning of machine-building production, research of operations, rank statistics, probability theory, theory of adaptive management, economics and enterprise management.Results. A method has been developed for processing data on the activities of enterprises and reducing them to the optimal set of observed indicators without losing awareness of the monitoring object; possibilities of using non-parametric methods of statistics for analysis of complex systems, in particular, holdings of defense industry, have been researched.Conclusion. Each enterprise has its own specificity depending on the specifics of the production processes. There is now a significant number of different indicators that comprehensively, and often too extensively, characterize what is happening. This situation often makes it difficult to manage production facilities, since the actual picture of the state of the facilities is obscured by an excess of secondary information. In this regard, it seems reasonable to try to weed out unnecessary indicators and use only those that carry the necessary amount of information sufficient to reflect the specifics of the enterprise. The presented work theoretically and practically proved the advantages of using non-parametric statistics in enterprise monitoring, which allows reducing temporary losses in the development of management solutions and increasing their efficiency at the level of the parent companies of defense-industrial associations.
A global trend in recent years is the so-called digitalization of crime, that is, the use of information technology as a means and instrument of crime. Remote methods of committing crimes have become widespread, in which direct contact is excluded not only between the offender and the victim, but also between the accomplices of illegal activities. The real damage from cybercrimes is currently difficult to calculate, while the number of these crimes is growing rapidly from year to year. This study analyzes the state and dynamics of crimes in the field of information technology, as well as identifies gaps in legislation, law enforcement practice and accounting in which information about crimes of this type is accumulated. Purpose of the research. The purpose of the research is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the state and dynamics of crimes in the field of information technology. Within the framework of the article, it is necessary to give a definition of crimes in the field of information technology for the purpose of conducting static analysis, while distinguishing between identical concepts. Highlight the main types and methods of their commission, form the classification of crimes in the field of information technology and designate the criteria for their construction. Analyze the experience of foreign countries and the results of the operational activities of the economic security and anti-corruption units of the territorial internal affairs bodies and suggest measures to improve the efficiency of the work being done.Materials and methods. When writing the work, the author used the methods of mathematical statistics; methods of the general theory of statistics, namely, relative, absolute and average values, methods of synthesis and analysis. For visual display of statistical data, graphical and tabular methods of data visualization were used. The information and empirical base was compiled by data on crimes in this area of the Main Information and Analytical Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, the Judicial Department under the Supreme Court and the General Prosecutor’s Office of the Russian Federation.Results of the research. When writing the article, a quantitative assessment of the state of crime in the field of information technology was made, the main objects of attack by cybercriminals were identified; the most characteristic features and methods of committing crimes in the field of information technology were described. A statistical classification system for assessing the level of cybercrime is proposed. The effectiveness of the work carried out by law enforcement agencies to counter these criminal manifestations has been analyzed. Various ways of increasing the efficiency of the work of law enforcement agencies are proposed. When analyzing the law enforcement practice, a number of problems were identified related to the proof of crimes of this orientation, namely, insufficient interaction between law enforcement agencies, on the one hand, and financial institutions, telecommunication service providers, on the other hand.Conclusion. The author proposes ways to improve the quality of the verification measures to identify persons involved in the commission of crimes in the field of information technology, as well as to assess the effectiveness of economic security and anti-corruption units of territorial internal affairs bodies in identifying this category of crimes. These measures are not exhaustive; in order to increase the effectiveness of countering cybercriminals, it is necessary to apply a systematic approach aimed not only at improving the quality of the work of law enforcement and investigative agencies, improving the software system and material and technical equipment, but also improving information support of the banking sector, increasing bank response measures, and most importantly, the literacy of the population.
Relevance. Catch-up countries are at a disadvantage in the world economy and are forced to fight for world market share. For this purpose, they form political and economic alliances and associations designed to counter the aggressive policies of the developed countries. All this applies fully to countries that are members of the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA). In our opinion, the assessment of the position of the participating countries on the geopolitical map of the world deserves special attention.Purpose of the study consists in the formation of an author’s methodology for studying the economic development of countries that are members of the Latin American Integration Association and building a forecast in the medium term on the basis of statistical tools. Materials and methods. The study used general research methods, such as analysis, comparisons, historical, as well as mathematical and statistical, in particular tabular and graphical, descriptive statistics and elements of correlation-regression analysis. A set of these methods and algorithms made it possible to identify the patterns that have developed at the moment in the economies of the Latin American Integration Association countries, assess their positions regarding world leaders, and also build short-term development forecasts.Results. With considerable resources, the countries of the Latin American Integration Association have not been able to significantly increase the share of world GDP during the existence of the association, which throughout the period does not exceed 5%. Within the association, there is a considerable differentiation. So the dominant positions are occupied by Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, while the positions of outsiders, by a significant margin, are occupied by Uruguay, Ecuador and Cuba. The structure of the economies of the association countries is largely different from the developed countries: the former are dominated by manufacturing, while the latter are dominated by services. A causal analysis of the impact of industries on GDP per capita, conducted in two time slices in 1990 and 2019, showed that during this time the countries that are members of the association have not been able to reformat the structure of their economies, which does not allow successful competition with developed countries. An element of the scientific novelty of the study is the formation of a theoretical and methodological approach to the study of the economic development of the geopolitical structure, which is the Latin American Integration Association, as well as the testing of this approach based on the actual data of international organizations.Conclusion. The testing of the author’s methodology aimed at studying the economic development of LAIA member countries allows us to argue about the operability of the algorithm, which made it possible to establish the low efficiency of the integration policy of Latin American countries, which, despite the significant level of national wealth, does not allow us to form a trend towards economic growth, a decrease in dependence on the export of natural capital, and an increase in the standard of living of the population. Some research findings from the study can be used in training activities for the disciplines of “Macroeconomics”, “International Statistics”, “Geoeconomics”, “Econometrics”, as well as in the analysis of the joint dynamics of political and economic communities, associations and groups. In subsequent publications, an in-depth analysis of the causes of the economic decline in each member country of the association will be carried out, dominant factors affecting growth and GDP decline will be identified.
In modern conditions, the main goal of the organization activity is not only to obtain a commercial effect in the form of profit, but also its stable development, which depends on the health of people and the quality of the environment. Understanding this forms a new look at the organization only a moderate consumption of resources, the preservation of the natural environment for the sake of future generations can allow it to become effective in the long term. This requires a transition from the traditional economic understanding of efficiency to the socio-ecological and economic one, which is based on the balance of its aspects.The aim of the study is to develop the author’s definitions of the categories “socio-ecological and economic efficiency”, “balance”; as well as an assessment of the balance of aspects of efficiency based on the dynamic standard method. The objectives of the study include: a) to develop the author’s definitions of the categories of socio-ecological and economic efficiency and balance; b) consider approaches to assessing the balance at the micro and meso levels; c) form a system of indicators for assessing the effectiveness of the organization; d) develop a normative series of growth rates of performance indicators and compare with the actual one using the example of a particular organization.Materials and methods. In preparing the article, methodological approaches to assessing the balance at the micro and meso levels were studied, namely: the essence, content, statistical tools underlying them, their shortcomings and the ability to assess the balance of aspects of the effectiveness of the organization activity were identified. The assessment was carried out using the dynamic standard method, for which the normative order of subordination of the indicators included in it was determined. For the assessment, we used data from the industrial organization, the main activity of which is the production of outerwear (Republic of Belarus, Vitebsk region).Results. As a result of writing the paper, the author’s definitions of the studied categories were developed, a system of indicators for certain aspects of the effectiveness of the organization activity was formed, priorities in growth rates were determined and the normative ranks of the selected indicators were established. Based on the data of a specific organization, a comparison was made between the normative and actual modes of functioning based on the calculation of the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient. The conclusion is made, theoretical directions of increasing the consistency of tempo characteristics are proposed.Conclusion. The article points out the degree of balance of certain aspects of efficiency (social, environmental and economic) on the example of a real business entity, which made it possible to form theoretical directions for eliminating their imbalance.
The purpose of the study is to assess changes of toll fares used on toll collection points. When toll road is operating in an urban environment, the operator is inevitably faced with the need to adapt intelligent transport system to the conditions of an ever-increasing volume and changing composition of the traffic. Such changes have a direct impact on the capacity of the toll road, in particular at toll collection points. The conducted research is aimed at analyzing the method of reducing the traffic load at the toll collection points during peak hours by making changes to the toll fares aimed at uniform distribution of traffic flow throughout the day. As an example, a toll collection point on the main road direction of the Western High-Speed Diameter toll road was chosen.Materials and methods. A discrete-event simulation model developed in the AnyLogic software was used to assess the quality of operation and throughput of the toll collection point. The software has a sufficient level of detail to reproduce the operation of the toll collection system, and allows managing all the necessary parameters of the system and traffic flow. Analysis of the data obtained from the simulated model experiments was carried out using the statistical package R. Results. As part of the study, the operational characteristics of the toll collection point, in particular its threshold capacity, were determined, and, if it was exceeded, the length of the emerging queue was determined. Taking into account the operator’s risks arising from the formation of a traffic congestion, an approach was proposed to change the toll fare policy of the toll road by using a more flexible fares based on dividing the day time fare into several time intervals and using increasing coefficients for toll fare when paying for travel during peak hours. Using the example of toll booth of the Western High-Speed Diameter, the increasing coefficients of the cost of travel at a rush hour were considered, and the risks of reducing the operator’s income from toll collection were assessed.Conclusion. Based on the results obtained, an assessment of the effectiveness of the application of measures to change the existing toll fare policy, aimed at optimizing the traffic flow of a toll road, can be carried out. In addition, such an analysis can be used to assess the investment attractiveness of a project, develop a toll fare policy, increase income and other similar tasks. Further research can be aimed at increasing the economic indicators of toll road projects, and developing additional mathematical tools used in the formation of toll fare policy.
Changes in the demographic structure of the population (aging of the population) can directly or indirectly lead to the transformation of key socio-economic indicators. This may affect the structure of revenues and expenditures of the state budget, as well as be reflected in some sectors of the economy. In the foreign literature, a significant number of studies are devoted to the study of the influence of the age structure of the population on the economic indicators of the country. However, in Russia this problem is poorly understood. The age composition of the population also affects the characteristics of socio-economic policy. Population growth in the most productive ages leads to an increase in per capita income, while in the least productive ages to a decrease in per capita income [18]. The greatest growth in the working-age population in the literature is usually defined as the first demographic dividend that was overcome for most developed countries. Currently, developed countries are at a stage when there is a significant increase in the burden of older people. However, according to scientists, in these conditions, an effective policy in the field of income and expenditure management can support the country’s economic growth. This effect is usually called the second demographic dividend. However, in the case of insufficient consumption at older ages, a decrease in total consumption can be observed, and, as a consequence, a decrease in output. Thus, in Russia there is a tendency towards aging of the population and low consumption in older ages.The purpose of the study is to construct an age profile of population expenditures, as well as to analyze the age structure of population expenditures based on data from the Russian Monitoring of Economic Situation and Health survey conducted by the Higher School of Economics.Materials and methods. In order to construct age profiles of household expenditures and then analyze the age structure of household expenditures, we considered surveys of the Russian Monitoring of Economic Situation and Health, conducted by the Higher School of Economics from 2010 to 2018. Before constructing age profiles of population expenditures, a primary statistical analysis of the databases was carried out and anomalous observations were excluded. The obtained age profiles were smoothed using the Friedman method. It is important to note that population expenditure surveys are collected on a per household basis and not per family member. Thus, before constructing age profiles of household expenditures, it is necessary to reallocate household expenditures for each family member. The paper examines the features of the methods of redistribution of expenditures of the population. When constructing age profiles of population expenditures, the recommendations of the National Intergenerational Transfer Accounts project developed by Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason will be used. Data processing was performed in the IBM SPSS and R software package.Results. When constructing age profiles of population expenditures, there is an increase in expenditures in age groups over 50 in 2018 compared to 2010. Conclusions are drawn about changes in expenditures on food, durable goods, services, utilities, and health services. The share of expenses for food products ranges from 38.6% to 43.7%. The smallest share of spending on food is observed in the ages from 0 to 9 years (less than 40%). In other age groups, the share of spending on food has no significant fluctuations and is about 42%. The largest share of spending on durable goods falls on the age groups from 0 to 19 years (about 17%). After 20 years, there is a gradual decrease in the share of spending on durable goods (to 6.6% in the age group 75-59). In terms of service category, the largest share of expenses falls on age groups 50-54 (18%). In the age groups over 55 years old, the share of expenditures on services decreases (to 10.7% in the age group 75-59 years old). The expenditures for the category of utilities in the age groups from 0 to 49 years do not change, and then there is a gradual increase in the share of expenses. There is a high proportion of spending on health services in the age groups from 0 to 4 and in the age groups over 60. The results obtained are necessary when constructing forecast values for assessing macroeconomic indicators, planning the state budget.Conclusion. The article provides a review of foreign and Russian literature on assessing the impact of the age structure of the population on economic growth, calculates the age profile of household expenditures in the Russian Federation, and considers the age structure of household expenditures for 2010 and 2018 by five-year age intervals. The results obtained allow us to draw conclusions about the different structure of population expenditures depending on age groups.
The purpose of the study. Currently, much attention is paid to the collection, presentation and analysis of data on the volume, structure and dynamics of economic assets. The value of economic assets, their composition, and effective asset management determine the trajectory of the development of the national economy and its individual sectors. Financial assets are an integral part of economic assets, their importance in the activities of economic entities is steadily increasing. The purpose of the work is to systematize theoretical and practical developments on the presentation of data on financial assets in modern macroeconomic statistics of Russia, to determine the directions for improving the methods of evaluating financial assets, the system of indicators characterizing their condition and movement.Materials and methods. The authors considered the classification of financial assets, applied structural and dynamic data analysis, as well as methods of theoretical research in the form of generalization, comparison and special analytical procedures.Results. The paper defines the main directions of studying financial assets based on existing international standards, taking into account national statistical practice. The current issues of the theory and practice of statistical observation and presentation of data on financial assets, the adaptation of concepts and classifications of international standards to the Russian system of statistical accounting are considered. The features of the presentation of data on financial assets at the macro level are formulated, which are reflected in the national accounts, the system of indicators of monetary statistics and statistics of foreign economic relations, statistical indicators of the Bank of Russia. The authors conducted a quantitative assessment of the structure and dynamics of indicators characterizing the state and movement of financial assets.Conclusion. Statistical analysis of economic transactions with financial assets at the level of institutional units and sectors of the economy allows us to identify not only the main trends in the development of the financial sector of the economy, but also makes it possible to comprehensively consider changes in the value and composition of financial assets at the macro level. The change in the value of financial assets is determined on a balance basis, that is, as the difference between the value of acquired and disposed financial assets.The authors examined in detail the methodological basis for forming a financial account in the context of financial instruments and sectors of the national economy. The financial account provides comprehensive information in the sectoral context on transactions with financial assets and liabilities for the reporting period, allows you to reflect the change in their value as a result of economic operations performed by institutional units, as well as to identify sectors of the economy that did not perform transactions with financial assets. The analysis of the financial account data makes it possible to analyze in detail the change in the value of financial assets at the macro level, to assess the share of the impact of each sector of the economy and the type of asset. A similar approach is applied in analytical procedures with respect to the net obligations assumed.Macroeconomic statistics reflect the movement of financial assets and liabilities by sectors of the national economy and characterize Russia’s relations with the “rest of the world” by determining the volume of net lending by Russia to other countries or determining its status as a net borrower.The issues of the theory and practice of presenting data on financial assets and their use are relevant and promising areas for improving national statistical accounting. Work in this direction continues, although the process of active implementation of international standards in statistical practice has been going on for quite a long time. The quality of primary accounting data on financial sector operations has improved significantly recently, but there are still problems with obtaining data in terms of the full coverage of the statistical aggregate under study, as well as the timing of obtaining reporting data. In addition, the appearance of a large number of new financial instruments and transactions, including modified ones, in the business turnover of institutional units makes it difficult to identify and classify them.The authors of the article have repeatedly addressed the issues of macroeconomic calculations in their publications, which allowed them to consider in more detail topical issues related to the processes of reflecting financial assets.
