USE OF QUANTITATIVE RATIOS FROM THE SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN PREDICTING PRICE BUBBLES ON THE HOUSING MARKET

One of the main causes of the economic and sovereign debt crisis in 2010 – 2012 in some European countries like the United Kingdom, Spain and Ireland was the bursting of the residential market price bubble that was formed in the previous period. In this paper, a specific methodology of indicator analysis of the System of National Accounts and other data has been analyzed if it can help identify and prevent forming of some possible future price bubbles at the residential market, and therefore negative macroeconomic consequences of their bursting. Comparative indicator analysis and critical values suggest measurements of excessive construction activity that led to forming of price bubbles on the residential market. Econometric analysis has shown that it is not possible to establish critical values as variable of interest is not statistically significant.

Information Opportunities of Administrative Data on Residential Real Estate Transactions for Calculating the House Prices in Russia’s Housing Market

Purpose of the study. Development, justification and testing of a methodology for improving statistical monitoring of average prices in the Russian housing market, based on the use of registration information of the Unified State Register of Real Estate (USRN) on transactions for the purchase of residential real estate, in accordance with international statistical standards for Residential Property Price statistics.Materials and methods. The theoretical basis of the study was the United Nations system of national accounts (version of 2008), including the European system of accounts as amended in 2010. The research methodological base was made up of official statistical sources: metadata and international statistics guidelines in the field of national accounting, Handbook on Residential Property Price Indices and related housing indicators, as well as methodological provisions and an album of Rosstat forms, and methodological materials of the administrative statistics of the Federal Service for State Registration, Cadastre and Cartography of the Russian Federation (Rosreestr). The depersonalized registration data on households’ market transactions of the Unified State Register of Property Rights and Transactions maintaining by Rosreestr were used as an information database of the research.Results. The main result of the study is the design and substantiation of a system of indicators for the construction of an integrated information source for Residential Property Price statistics, on the base on interdepartmental information interaction.Conclusion. The proposed system of indicators will provide a highquality database that could be used in order to construct constant quality House Prices for various types of homogeneous residential property in the housing market, complying with the concepts of international statistical standards.

Corporate income tax gap estimation in the context of development of fiscal space

The article is devoted to the analysis of the corporate income tax gap as one of the indicators that characterizes the tax revenues that a country can accumulate accounting for its economic potential. The author summarizes the main theoretical views on the causes of the tax gap and investigates existing methodological approaches to assess the tax gap on corporate income tax in OECD countries. The article estimates the income tax gap under the OECD Revenue Administration - Gap Analysis Program, which is based on determining potential tax revenues by adjusting the aggregate indicators of the system of national accounts (gross output, mixed income), which, according to the analysis, averaged at 1.4% GDP in the period 2017-2019, which shows a potential for the development of the fiscal space of Ukraine. Upon analysis of the distribution of the tax gap between institutional sectors of the economy, the largest gap in income tax was found in the sector of foreign corporations whose potential tax revenues were estimated as tripled relative to the declared tax revenues accrued in the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine in 2018. The author conducted a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of corporate income tax in Ukraine on the basis of tax efforts and budget efficiency ratios, which revealed significant weaknesses in comparison with similar indicators in other countries. The main measures aimed at eliminating tax gaps in OECD countries are summed up and recommendations are made for Ukraine.

On the Origin and Development of the System of National Accounts

The article covers milestones of the system of national accounts (SNA) development. In particular, it is noted that the SNA was developed in response to the need of governments of the major market economies in macroeconomic statistics to guide decision-making for combatting the effects of the Great Economic Depression of 1929–1933. The authors address the SNA evolution in a context of the development of concepts, definitions, and classifications, furnishing the basis for a system of interrelated and mutually agreed measures of economic development at the macro level.Development of the SNA theory and methodology was closely linked with real change in a global economy, reflected the emergence of new forms of organization of economic process, new methods of financing investments, the growing role of foreign investments, globalization.The authors note a valuable contribution of a galaxy of eminent economists of the last century to the SNA theory and methodology elaboration. The article discusses at some length the role of international organizations in the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the SNA. After the Second World War, these organizations released several critical documents with recommendations on the SNA compilation, recognized as international standards. The authors analyze the current international standard – the SNA 2008. In particular, the new treatment of expenditures on research and development and weapons systems. This treatment introduces a very noticeable adjustment in understanding important structural characteristics of the modern economy in many countries.The final part of the article considers issues of developing the SNA in national statistics, previously focused on the balance of the national economy (BNH). There are specific features of the transition from the world’s first developed system of interrelated macroeconomic indicators, the BNH, to the international standard, the SNA, adapted to modern realities of unctioning of market economy in Russia.

Public Sector Financial Balances Based on the System of National Accounts

Studies on the impact of government expenditures on regional and municipal development mainly focus on examining local budgets. Simultaneously, each territory has various channels for financing public needs and collecting taxes and other payments. Therefore, this research develops and tests a methodology to construct the public sector financial balance at the municipal level. The presented approach in based on the System of National Accounts (SNA), which considers expenditures and revenues of the federal, regional or municipal budgets as a single institutional sector, regardless of their affiliation. Therefore, in order to achieve the municipal financial balance, it is necessary to analyse tax payments at various budget levels, grouping them in accordance with the SNA classification. For calculating municipal expenditures, an original technique was developed to consider the costs of all public sector financial flows, including direct federal and regional sources. We use official information on municipal payroll obtained from the Federal State Statistics Service database. The net lending/borrowing ratio is taken as a balance indicator of supply and use. Public sector financial balances were constructed for 69 municipalities of Sverdlovsk oblast. Calculations have shown that, on average, public sector expenditure is almost equally divided between regional and federal budgets (one half) and municipal budgets (another half). Various municipality types were identified: 9 donors of public administration resources in Sverdlovsk oblast; 5 territories (including Ekaterinburg city) with a moderate deficit of internal resources; 35 municipalities with a significant lack of finances; 11 areas completely dependent on public administration resources. This work is part of the research aiming to develop the System of Territorial Accounts, tat is, an SNA analogue that can be implemented at the regional and municipal levels.

STATISTICAL STUDY OF INCOME AND EXPENDITURE HOUSEHOLDS IN THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN

The purpose of the study is to clarify the theoretical approaches associated with the formation and forecasting of household cash income, and to develop, on this basis, methodological recommendations for forecasting them in the system of regional accounts. To achieve this goal, the following tasks have been set: research and clarify theoretical and methodological approaches to the formation and forecasting of household income at the regional level; show the evolution of the economic essence of household income in the theoretical views of foreign and Uzbek researchers, systematize the basic principles of the formation of household income, necessitating the need to clarify the definition of household income, highlight the features of the formation of shadow income and informal household income in order to assess the impact of these processes on the formation of cash household income, to formulate the main directions of improving the study and forecasting of household cash income at the regional level, to carry out predictive experimental calculations of household cash income of the constituent entity of the Republic of Uzbekistan. KEYWORDS: Republic of Uzbekistan, statistics, income, expenditure, households, system of national accounts

Why Is Growth in Developing Countries So Hard to Measure?

Occasional widely publicized controversies have led to the perception that growth statistics from developing countries are not to be trusted. Based on the comparison of several data sources and analysis of novel IMF audit data, we find no support for the view that growth is on average measured less accurately or manipulated more in developing than in developed countries. While developing countries face many challenges in measuring growth, so do higher-income countries, especially those with complex and sometimes rapidly changing economic structures. However, we find consistently higher dispersion of growth estimates from developing countries, lending support to the view that classical measurement error is more problematic in poorer countries and that a few outliers may have had a disproportionate effect on (mis)measurement perceptions. We identify several measurement challenges that are specific to poorer countries, namely limited statistical capacity, the use of outdated data and methods, the large share of the agricultural sector, the informal economy, and limited price data. We show that growth measurement based on the System of National Accounts (SNA) can be improved if supplemented with information from other data sources (for example, satellite-based data on vegetation yields) that address some of the limitations of SNA.

Valuation of Machines with a Random Service Life Based on the System of National Accounts – 2008

We propose a mathematical model describing the decrease in the market value of machines (depreciation) with age in a situation where its service life is random and has a Weibull distribution. We measure the depreciation of a used machinery item using a goodness factor, that is, the ratio of its value to the value of a similar new machinery item. The model is based on the principle of anticipation of benefits adopted in the valuation theory and the discounting cash flows method. The model takes into account that machine’s technical and economic characteristics deteriorate with age and its benefits are reduced according to the hyperbolic dependence adopted in the system of national accounts SNA‑2008. We have built the dependences of average machine's goodness factor on its relative age (the ratio of the actual age to the average service life). Calculations show that the discount rate and average service life have little effect on these dependencies. This made it possible to divide the machines into three categories and propose for each of them its own dependence of the goodness factor on the relative age, which is convenient for practical use in appraisal activities.