The Allocation of Labor and Endogenous Search Decisions

This paper examines the allocation of heterogeneous workers across sectors of an economy in which workers are able to direct their search towards particular firms. We find that search frictions, in addition to causing unemployment, may result in an inefficient allocation of labor. This result arises because of the interaction between the investment decisions of firms and the search decisions of workers. Despite constant returns to scale in both the matching and production functions, this interaction can generate multiple equilibria. The existence of multiple equilibria is shown to depend crucially on the direction of comparative advantage.

Differentiability of the Efficient Frontier when Commitment to Risk Sharing is Limited

This paper shows that the value function describing efficient risk sharing with limited commitment is not necessarily differentiable everywhere. We link differentiability of the value function to history dependence of efficient allocations and provide sufficient conditions for both properties.

Using Investment Data to Assess the Importance of Price Mismeasurement

This paper presents a new approach to assess the role of price mismeasurement in the productivity slowdown. I invert the firm’s investment decision to identify the embodied and disembodied components of productivity growth. With a Cobb-Douglas production function, output price mismeasurement only should affect the latter. Contrary to the mismeasurement hypothesis, I find that in the Post-War period, disembodied productivity grew faster in the hard-to-measure than in the non-manufacturing easy-to-measure sectors, and that disembodied productivity slowed down less in the hard-to-measure than in the easy-to-measure sectors since the 70’s. These results hold a fortiori when capital and labor are complements.

Quantitative Monetary Easing and Risk in Financial Asset Markets

In this paper, we empirically examine the portfolio-rebalancing effects stemming from the policy of “quantitative monetary easing” recently undertaken by the Bank of Japan when the nominal short-term interest rate was virtually at zero. Portfolio-rebalancing effects resulting from the open market purchase of long-term government bonds under this policy have been statistically significant. Our results also show that the portfolio-rebalancing effects were beneficial in that they reduced risk premiums on assets with counter-cyclical returns, such as government and high-grade corporate bonds. But, they may have generated the adverse effects of increasing risk premiums on assets with pro-cyclical returns, such as equities and low-grade corporate bonds. These results are consistent with a CAPM framework in which business-cycle risk importantly affects risk premiums. Our estimates capture only some of the effects of quantitative easing and thus do not imply that the complete set of effects were adverse on net for Japan’s economy. However, our analysis counsels caution in accepting the view that, ceteris paribus, a massive large-scale purchase of long-term government bonds by a central bank provides unambiguously positive net benefits to financial markets at zero short-term interest rates.

Uncertainty and Debt-Maturity in Emerging Markets

Although a lot has been written on the link between debt maturity and financial crises, it remains puzzling why the private sector in emerging market economies holds such a large share of short-term debt in the presence of substantial macroeconomic risk. To understand this phenomenon, we propose a simple model in which debt maturity depends on economic uncertainty about investment returns. We show in particular that if lenders are risk averse, higher uncertainty can (i) lower the total debt level a country is able to borrow and (ii) tilt the debt profile towards short-term debt. We take these model implications to the data using a panel of 28 emerging market economies and various indicators for macroeconomic uncertainty. We find substantial empirical support for the model's predictions.

On the Use of Substitutability as a Measure of Competition

In the recent macro literature the effect of competition has been analyzed by comparing economies with the same market structure but different degrees of substitutability. In this note, we argue that this approach may mingle the price effect of competition with a pure allocation effect. To illustrate the limitations of using the elasticity of substitution as a measure of competition, we present an example in which changes in the elasticity alter equilibrium allocations, but changes in the degree of market power do not. We use a simple static general equilibrium model in which sectors have different productivity. Then, higher substitutability always shifts resources towards the more productive sectors. Instead, changes in the market structure (monopolistic competition versus Bertrand duopoly) do not affect the relative price of consumption goods if the markups are symmetric, implying that the induced changes in competition do not have any price effect on equilibrium allocations.