scholarly journals Comparing Two Financial Crises: The Case of Hong Kong Real Estate Markets

2015 ◽  
pp. 375-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Ka Yui Leung ◽  
Edward Chi Ho Tang
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Real Estate Markets

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2000 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-108
Author(s):  
Ko Wang ◽  
◽  
Yuqing Zhou ◽  
Su Han Chan ◽  
K. W. Chau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
Rational Model ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Studies on the calibration of subjective probabilities find that people tend to over-estimate the precision of their knowledge. In this paper we develop a semi-rational model and apply it to the real estate markets in Hong Kong and other Asian countries. The key point is that a person is rational about her/his private information until her/his private information is confirmed by a clearly defined market signal. Using a pre-sale as a mechanism of updating a developer's beliefs, this paper analyzes the impact of over-confidence on overbuilding and cycles in real estate markets. Our finding indicates that a pre-sale activity will increase the magnitude of over-building and over-confidence will increase the volatility in real estate markets. Our model also has implications to the well-established literature dealing with the issue of over-capacity in many industrial sectors.

Feedback trading strategies in international real estate markets

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chrysanthi Balomenou ◽  
Vassilios Babalos ◽  
Dimitrios Vortelinos ◽  
Athanasios Koulakiotis
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Feedback Trading

Purpose Motivated by recent evidence that securitized real estate returns exhibit higher levels of predictability than stock market returns and that feedback trading (FT) can induce returns autocorrelation and market volatility, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of FT strategies on long-term market volatility of eight international real estate markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Australia, Japan and Hong Kong). Design/methodology/approach Assuming that the return autocorrelation may vary over time and the impact of positive feedback trading (PFT) or negative feedback trading (NFT) could be a function of return volatility, the authors use a combination of a FT model and a fractionally integrated Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Findings The results are mixed, revealing that both PFT and NFT strategies persist. Specifically, the authors detect PFT in the real estate markets of France, Hong Kong and Italy as opposed to the real estate markets of Australia, Germany, Japan and Sweden where NFT was present. A noteworthy exception is the UK real estate market, with important and rational FT strategies to sustain. With respect to the long-term volatility persistence, this seems to capture the mean reversion of real estate returns in the UK and Hong Kong markets. In general, the results are not consistent with those reported in previous studies because NFT dominates PFT in the majority of real estate markets under consideration. Originality/value The main contribution of this study is the investigation of the link between short-term PFT or NFT and long-term volatility in eight international real estate markets, symmetrically. Particular attention has been given to the link between short-term FT and long-term volatility, by means of a fractionally integrated GARCH approach, a symmetric one. Moreover, investigating the relationship between returns’ volatility and investors’ strategies based on FT entails significant implications because real estate assets offer a good alternative investment for many investors and speculators.

scholarly journals ARE THE GLOBAL REAL ESTATE MARKETS CONTAGIOUS?

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 219-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eddie C. M. Hui ◽  
Ka Kwan Kevin Chan
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Complete Picture ◽  
Contagion Effect ◽  
Higher Order Moments ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Insight Into

The aim of this paper is to investigate the contagion across real estate markets of four countries: Hong Kong, China, U.S. and U.K., during the financial tsunami in 2008. We use the Forbes-Rigobon test, the coskewness test and the cokurtosis test. We propose a new cokurtosis test constructed by extending the method of constructing the coskewness test to further higher order moments. It can show additional channels of contagion that other tests fail to show, and hence can provide more information on the direction of contagion, and reflect a more complete picture of the contagion pattern. The coskewness and cokurtosis tests show that contagion exists between the four countries, and the contagion effect is stronger between Hong Kong and China, and between U.S. and U.K. This provides clues for investors on how to diversify their investment to reduce their risk. This paper bridges the gap that previous works on contagion across real estate markets give mixed results, and gives a first insight into the contagion pattern of global real estate markets during the financial tsunami.

Städtischer Immobilienmarkt und Finanzkrisen im späten 19. Jahrhundert

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Nützenadel
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Close Relation ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Real Estate Investments ◽  
The 19Th Century

AbstractThe article explores the relationship between the dynamics of urban real estate markets and financial crises in the second half of the 19th century. This period was not only characterized by brisk urbanization, but also by the emergence of novel instruments to finance the developments of the large metropolises. We argue that basic elements of modern real estate crises can be found already during the 19th century: the inherent trend towards price bubbles, easy credit conditions which allowed the emergence of a subprime market, the close relation between real estate investments and the banking system, and an increasing importance of international finance. There are thus good reasons to compare the crises of 2008 with the financial crises of the late 19th century instead of taking the Great Depression of the 1930s as a yardstick.

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