Feedback trading strategies in international real estate markets

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chrysanthi Balomenou ◽  
Vassilios Babalos ◽  
Dimitrios Vortelinos ◽  
Athanasios Koulakiotis
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Feedback Trading

Purpose Motivated by recent evidence that securitized real estate returns exhibit higher levels of predictability than stock market returns and that feedback trading (FT) can induce returns autocorrelation and market volatility, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of FT strategies on long-term market volatility of eight international real estate markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Australia, Japan and Hong Kong). Design/methodology/approach Assuming that the return autocorrelation may vary over time and the impact of positive feedback trading (PFT) or negative feedback trading (NFT) could be a function of return volatility, the authors use a combination of a FT model and a fractionally integrated Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Findings The results are mixed, revealing that both PFT and NFT strategies persist. Specifically, the authors detect PFT in the real estate markets of France, Hong Kong and Italy as opposed to the real estate markets of Australia, Germany, Japan and Sweden where NFT was present. A noteworthy exception is the UK real estate market, with important and rational FT strategies to sustain. With respect to the long-term volatility persistence, this seems to capture the mean reversion of real estate returns in the UK and Hong Kong markets. In general, the results are not consistent with those reported in previous studies because NFT dominates PFT in the majority of real estate markets under consideration. Originality/value The main contribution of this study is the investigation of the link between short-term PFT or NFT and long-term volatility in eight international real estate markets, symmetrically. Particular attention has been given to the link between short-term FT and long-term volatility, by means of a fractionally integrated GARCH approach, a symmetric one. Moreover, investigating the relationship between returns’ volatility and investors’ strategies based on FT entails significant implications because real estate assets offer a good alternative investment for many investors and speculators.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2000 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-108
Author(s):  
Ko Wang ◽  
◽  
Yuqing Zhou ◽  
Su Han Chan ◽  
K. W. Chau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
Rational Model ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Studies on the calibration of subjective probabilities find that people tend to over-estimate the precision of their knowledge. In this paper we develop a semi-rational model and apply it to the real estate markets in Hong Kong and other Asian countries. The key point is that a person is rational about her/his private information until her/his private information is confirmed by a clearly defined market signal. Using a pre-sale as a mechanism of updating a developer's beliefs, this paper analyzes the impact of over-confidence on overbuilding and cycles in real estate markets. Our finding indicates that a pre-sale activity will increase the magnitude of over-building and over-confidence will increase the volatility in real estate markets. Our model also has implications to the well-established literature dealing with the issue of over-capacity in many industrial sectors.

scholarly journals The performance of a blended real estate portfolio for UK DC investors

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Moss ◽  
Kieran Farrelly
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Pension Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Specific Investment ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Investment Requirement ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a better understanding of the performance implications for UK DC pension fund investors who choose to combine global listed and UK unlisted real estate in a blended allocation relative to a pure unlisted solution. Design/methodology/approach – Blended listed and unlisted real estate portfolios are constructed. Investor risk and returns are then studied over the full 15 year sample horizon and distinct cyclical phases over this period using a number of risk-return metrics. Performance is then contrasted with that of a pure unlisted solution, as well as UK equity market and bond total returns over the same period. Findings – A UK DC pension fund investor choosing to construct a blended global listed and UK unlisted real estate portfolio would have experienced material return enhancement relative to a pure unlisted solution. The “price” of this enhanced performance and improved liquidity profile is, unsurprisingly, higher portfolio volatility. However, because of the improved returns, the impact upon measured risk adjusted returns is less significant. Practical implications – Relatively liquid blended listed and unlisted real estate portfolios create efficient risk and return outcomes for investors. Originality/value – This study uses actual fund rather than index data (i.e. measures delivered returns to investors), has chosen a global rather than single country listed real estate allocation and is focused on providing clarity around the real estate exposure for a specific investment requirement, the UK DC pension fund market.

Residential mortgages, the real estate market, and economic growth: evidence from Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 552-577 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umberto Filotto ◽  
Claudio Giannotti ◽  
Gianluca Mattarocci ◽  
Xenia Scimone
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Persistent Effect ◽  
Residential Mortgages ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic condition and real estate price trend on the amount of residential loan. Design/methodology/approach The paper using a sample of 16 European Countries for the time period 2007–2015 evaluates the impact of change in the gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the inflation rate on the amount of residential loans. The analysis is performed by using a vector autoregressive (VAR) and generalized VAR approach for the full sample and for each country considered. Findings For a short-term horizon, shocks to mortgages, the house price index (HPI) and the GDP have a positive effect on the GDP, a shock to the amount of mortgages has a positive effect on the mortgage supply and a shock to the GDP has a negative effect on HPI. The main results for the long-term horizon are that a GDP shock has a positive and persistent effect on the amount of mortgages, a shock to HPI has a negative and persistent effect on mortgages and a shock to the amount of mortgages seems to have no persistent effect on the GDP or the HPI. Moreover, the analysis shows that a spillover risk among countries exists and a GDP shock in a European area has an effect on the GDP, real estate prices and residential mortgages in almost all European countries. Practical implications Results obtained show that both macroeconomic and housing prices shocks matter for the real estate lending and the effect are different in the short- and in the medium–long-term horizon. Results are also different country by country and they are affected by the level of financial development of the country. Originality/value The paper studies a lending crisis period and evaluates for the European market the impact of shock on macro-variables for mortgages focusing the attention for the first time only on residential mortgages.

A longitudinal study of the impact of the Sydney Olympics on real estate markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang (Steven) Lu ◽  
Yupin Yang
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Olympic Games ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games on the residential real estate markets of the host city during the bidding, pre-Olympic and post-Olympic periods. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses a difference-in-differences model to analyze the transaction prices for all properties in New South Wales, Australia for the period from 1980 to 2007. Findings – The paper finds that the impact on real estate markets varies across different suburbs in the host city and over time. The real estate markets of host suburbs experience substantially higher growth during the bidding and pre-Olympic periods but not during the post-Olympic period. However, the property prices in non-host suburbs in the host city increase at a higher rate during the pre- and post-Olympic periods but not during the bidding period. Originality/value – This study offers insights into the long-term impact of the Olympic Games on host suburbs and non-host suburbs in the host city during different periods by analyzing a large longitudinal data set over a period of 27 years.

scholarly journals Trust in a viable real estate economy with disruption and blockchain

Facilities ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 103-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Veuger
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The real estate world finds itself at a tipping point of a transition: a dramatic and irreversible shift in (real estate) systems in society. This paper is a State of the art of Disruption, Blockchain and Real Estate in the Netherlands and international. Design/methodology/approach The following questions were asked to all those involved: What do you think is the essence of Blockchain for real estate? What is the most current situation with respect to Blockchain and real estate from your perspective? Which publications are important from your perspective? What do you expect with respect to the impact of Blockchain on real estate for (social) real estate? What are questions for the future for real estate and Blockchain? In addition, interviews, exploratory conversations and correspondence took place, and the content was peer reviewed. Findings Changes in value concepts affect the valuation of real estate and the thinking about it. The orientation of changing users and owners of real estate affects innovativeness, values and flexibility in managing that property. Orientation on disruption must be seen as proof that the real estate world is able to actually innovate the accumulated assets and consolidate this. The financial and real estate markets are markets that exaggerate through irrational behaviour. Fear of “eat or be eaten” determines people’s behaviour. Financial and thus real estate markets are always unstable and must always be regulated by people and organizations. Research limitations/implications The question that remains is whether it is important to look at disruptive innovations in existing markets or newcomers in the real estate market and Blockchain. The question is whether Blockchain is only a technological disruption, or a real game changer, and whether the entire value chain of the real estate market will embrace it. No two disruptions are the same. Trust in Blockchain is a prerequisite for guiding the predictable form of that disruption where start-up companies use new technology to offer cheaper and inferior alternatives to real estate in the market. You could also talk about anti-fragile value: “Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile” (Taleb, 2012), in other words: attention to disruption and Blockchain creates a viable real estate economy. Practical implications The true meaning of the Blockchain technology for real estate still needs to be investigated. The author is still curious to understand and clarify the value of Blockchain for real estate processes. Doubt continues to exist and is therefore a feeding ground for further research, because we do not know what we have not seen. Social implications Looking at the impact of Blockchain on real estate, a number of conclusions can be drawn. First of all, the relationship between Blockchain and real estate has not yet been proven in practice. It is expected to develop further in the form of registering transaction processes and the DNA passport of a real estate object. Secondly, completeness and transparency are the basic ingredients for trust in the system. Third, real estate wants to remain viable. For this reason, taking the offense is necessary for real estate and management to connect with social demand. Behaviour also leads to new earnings models of the social and economic spin-off of disruptive real estate. If the Dutch real estate sector embraces Blockchain and is able to realize innovations, there are opportunities for real estate entrepreneurs to exploit the disruptive character to provide those new services. Originality/value The way in which disruption, Blockchain and real estate will develop in the coming years are not the only obvious characteristics of a particular era but also its social impact and user behaviour. This also applies to how this real estate transition can best be tracked, guided and utilized in society at the international, national and regional level. Disruptive organizations clearly respond to the viability of the (built) environment and therefore determine competitive strength. This affects the current and future valuation of real estate.

Does salience matter in investment decision?

Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (8) ◽  
pp. 1894-1912
Author(s):  
Samra Chaudary
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Individual Investors ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multigroup Analysis ◽  
Money Managers ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The paper takes a behavioral approach by making use of the prospect theory to unveil the impact of salience on short-term and long-term investment decisions. This paper aims to investigate the group differences for two types of investors’ groups, i.e. individual investors and professional investors. Design/methodology/approach The study uses partial least square-based structural equation modeling technique, measurement invariance test and multigroup analysis test on a unique data set of 277 active equity traders which included professional money managers and individual investors. Findings Results showed that salience has a significant positive impact on both short-term and long-term investment decisions. The impact was almost 1.5 times higher for long-term investment decision as compared to short-term decision. Furthermore, multigroup analysis revealed that the two groups (individual investors and professional investors) were statistically significantly different from each other. Research limitations/implications The study has implications for financial regulators, money managers and individual investors as it was found that individual investors suffer more with salience heuristic and may end up with sub-optimal portfolios due to inefficient diversification. Thus, investors should be cautious in fully relying on salience and avoid such bias to improve investment returns. Practical implications The study concludes with a discussion of policy and regulatory implications on how to minimize salience bias to achieve optimum and diversified portfolios. Originality/value The study has significantly contributed to the growing body of applied behavioral research in the discipline of finance.

scholarly journals Effects of agricultural credit on wheat productivity of small farms in Sindh, Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (5) ◽  
pp. 592-610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Feng Wei ◽  
Xu Guangshun
Keyword(s):  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Considerable Proportion ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Small Farms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Agricultural Credit ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of short-term loan (STL) vs long-term loan (LTL) on wheat productivity of small farms in Sindh, Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach The econometric estimation is based on cross-sectional data collected in 2016 from 18 villages in three districts, i.e. Shikarpur, Sukkur and Shaheed Benazirabad, Sindh, Pakistan. The sample data set consist of 180 wheat farmers. The collected data were analyzed through different econometric techniques like Cobb–Douglas production function and Instrumental variables (two-stage least squares) approach. Findings This study reconfirmed that agricultural credit has a positive and highly significant effect on wheat productivity, while the short-term loan has a stronger effect on wheat productivity than the long-term loan. The reasons behind the phenomenon may be the significantly higher usage of agricultural inputs like seeds of improved variety and fertilizers which can be transformed into the wheat yield in the same year. However, the LTL users have significantly higher investments in land preparation, irrigation and plant protection, which may lead to higher wheat production in the coming years. Research limitations/implications In the present study, only those wheat farmers were considered who obtained agricultural loans from formal financial institutions like Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited and Khushhali Bank. However, in the rural areas of Sindh, Pakistan, a considerable proportion of small-scale farmers take credit from informal financial channels. Therefore future researchers should consider the informal credits as well. Originality/value This is the first paper to examine the effects of agricultural credit on wheat productivity of small farms in Sindh, Pakistan. This paper will be an important addition to the emerging literature regarding effects of credit studies.

Real estate risk, yield modelling and market sentiment: the impact on pricing in European office markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tony McGough ◽  
Jim Berry
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Office Markets ◽  
Risk Pricing ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe financial and economic turmoil that resulted from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), included a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. Property asset prices were impacted by the real economy and market sentiment, particularly concerning the determination of risk. In an economic downturn, the perception of investment risk becomes increasingly important relative to overall total returns, and thus impacts on yields and performance of assets. In a recovery phase, and particularly within an environment of historically low government bonds, risk and return compete for importance. The aim of this paper is to assess the interrelationships and impacts on pricing between real estate risk, yield modelling outcomes and market sentiment in selective European city office markets.Design/methodology/approachThis paper specifically considers the modelling of commercial property pricing in relation to the appetite for risk in the financial markets. The paper expands on previous work by determining a specific measure of risk pricing in relationship to changing financial market sentiment. The methodology underpinning the research specifically examines the scope for using national and international risk pricing within specific real estate markets in Europe.FindingsThis paper addresses whether there is a difference between the impact of risk on the pricing of real estate in international versus regional cities in Europe. The analysis, therefore, determines which city centre office markets in Europe have been most impacted by globalisation including the magnitude on real estate prices and market volatility. The outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continues to drive yield movements under different market conditions.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper considers the driving forces which have led to the volatile movements of yields, emanating from the GFC.Practical implicationsThis paper considers the property market effects on pricing of commercial real estate and the drivers in selected European cities.Originality/valueThe outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continue to drive the yield movements in different real estate markets in Europe.

Data centers as the backbone of smart cities: principal considerations for the study of facility costs and benefits

Facilities ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick T.I. Lam ◽  
Daniel Lai ◽  
Chi-Kin Leung ◽  
Wenjing Yang
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Data Center ◽  
Data Centers ◽  
Smart Cities ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cost And Benefit ◽  
Mission Critical ◽  
The Impact

Purpose As smart cities flourish amidst rapid urbanization and information and communication technology development, the demand for building more and more data centers is rising. This paper aims to examine the principal issues and considerations of data center facilities from the cost and benefit dimensions, with an aim to illustrate the approaches for maximizing the net benefits and remain “green.” Design/methodology/approach A comprehensive literature review informs the costs and benefits of data center facilities, and through a case study of a developer in Hong Kong, the significance of real estate costs is demonstrated. Findings Major corporations, establishments and governments need data centers as a mission critical facility to enable countless electronic transactions to take place any minute of the day. Their functional importance ranges from health, transport, payment, etc., all the way to entertainment activities. Some enterprises own them, whilst others use data center services on a co-location basis, in which case data centers are regarded as an investment asset. Real estate costs affect their success to a great extent, as in the case of a metropolitan where land cost forms a substantial part of the overall development cost for data centers. Research limitations/implications As the financial information of data center projects are highly sensitive due to the competitive status of the industry, a full set of numerical data is not available. Instead, the principles for a typical framework are established. Originality/value Data centers are very energy intensive, and their construction is usually fast tracked costing much to build, not to mention the high-value equipment contents housed therein. Their site locations need careful selection due to stability and security concerns. As an essential business continuity tool, the return on investment is a complex consideration, but certainly the potential loss caused by any disruption would be a huge amount. The life cycle cost and benefit considerations are revealed for this type of mission-critical facilities. Externalities are expounded, with emphasis on sustainable issues. The impact of land shortage for data center development is also demonstrated through the case of Hong Kong.

The impact of the reform of PIS/COFINS on the Brazilian industry

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Gomes Vasconcelos ◽  
Nelson Leitão Paes
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Neoclassical Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Tax Distortions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Two Sectors

PurposeIn an attempt to reduce tax distortions and increase economic efficiency, in 2002 and 2003 Brazil promoted changes in the PIS/COFINS tax, the main federal tax on consumption. Thus, in addition to the old cumulative regime calculated on company revenues, the noncumulative regime was created with higher rates and the added value as a tax basis.Design/methodology/approachThis paper analyzes the effects of the PIS/COFINS reform in a context of deindustrialization in the Brazilian economy, using a neoclassical model with two sectors.FindingsThe results suggest that after a small improvement in the aggregate economy in the short term, in the long term there was a worsening of the macroeconomic indicators. From the sector perspective, the PIS/COFINS reform may have contributed to the loss of industry participation in the Brazilian economy.Originality/valueThe study of the impact of the PIS/COFINS reform on industry through a neoclassical model is unprecedented in the national literature and contributes to the investigation of changes in the tax regime that occurred in the country.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document