scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2000 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-108
Author(s):  
Ko Wang ◽  
◽  
Yuqing Zhou ◽  
Su Han Chan ◽  
K. W. Chau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Subjective Probabilities ◽  
Rational Model ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Studies on the calibration of subjective probabilities find that people tend to over-estimate the precision of their knowledge. In this paper we develop a semi-rational model and apply it to the real estate markets in Hong Kong and other Asian countries. The key point is that a person is rational about her/his private information until her/his private information is confirmed by a clearly defined market signal. Using a pre-sale as a mechanism of updating a developer's beliefs, this paper analyzes the impact of over-confidence on overbuilding and cycles in real estate markets. Our finding indicates that a pre-sale activity will increase the magnitude of over-building and over-confidence will increase the volatility in real estate markets. Our model also has implications to the well-established literature dealing with the issue of over-capacity in many industrial sectors.

Feedback trading strategies in international real estate markets

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chrysanthi Balomenou ◽  
Vassilios Babalos ◽  
Dimitrios Vortelinos ◽  
Athanasios Koulakiotis
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Feedback Trading

Purpose Motivated by recent evidence that securitized real estate returns exhibit higher levels of predictability than stock market returns and that feedback trading (FT) can induce returns autocorrelation and market volatility, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of FT strategies on long-term market volatility of eight international real estate markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Australia, Japan and Hong Kong). Design/methodology/approach Assuming that the return autocorrelation may vary over time and the impact of positive feedback trading (PFT) or negative feedback trading (NFT) could be a function of return volatility, the authors use a combination of a FT model and a fractionally integrated Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Findings The results are mixed, revealing that both PFT and NFT strategies persist. Specifically, the authors detect PFT in the real estate markets of France, Hong Kong and Italy as opposed to the real estate markets of Australia, Germany, Japan and Sweden where NFT was present. A noteworthy exception is the UK real estate market, with important and rational FT strategies to sustain. With respect to the long-term volatility persistence, this seems to capture the mean reversion of real estate returns in the UK and Hong Kong markets. In general, the results are not consistent with those reported in previous studies because NFT dominates PFT in the majority of real estate markets under consideration. Originality/value The main contribution of this study is the investigation of the link between short-term PFT or NFT and long-term volatility in eight international real estate markets, symmetrically. Particular attention has been given to the link between short-term FT and long-term volatility, by means of a fractionally integrated GARCH approach, a symmetric one. Moreover, investigating the relationship between returns’ volatility and investors’ strategies based on FT entails significant implications because real estate assets offer a good alternative investment for many investors and speculators.

scholarly journals The Role of Macroprudential Policy in Bank Housing Loans Portfolio Quality Assurance

2021 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 281-296
Author(s):  
Mirela Mitrašević
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Mortgage Loans ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Business Conditions ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The subject of this paper is the contemporary trend in residential real estate markets in European countries and their impact on the quality of banks’ housing loan portfolios. Due to the fact that these are the markets that still have not fully recovered from the previous financial crisis, and at the time of writing were exposed to significant uncertainty related to the effects of specific business conditions caused by COVID-19, the research on the risks related to these markets and tools which can mitigate their consequences are of paramount importance. Given the fact that the importance of monitoring the emergence of systemic risks in the financial system and the design of macroprudential tools for Bosnia and Herzegovina is yet to come, one of the aims of the paper is to present the results of the research on the effectiveness of certain macroprudential policy measures for mitigating the impact of price fluctuations in residential real estate markets. A special attention is paid to the challenges that the real estate market and mortgage loans have been facing during the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper provides a basis for future researches examining to which extent the applied macroprudential policy measures in some countries have been effective in hitherto unprecedented business conditions

A longitudinal study of the impact of the Sydney Olympics on real estate markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang (Steven) Lu ◽  
Yupin Yang
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Olympic Games ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games on the residential real estate markets of the host city during the bidding, pre-Olympic and post-Olympic periods. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses a difference-in-differences model to analyze the transaction prices for all properties in New South Wales, Australia for the period from 1980 to 2007. Findings – The paper finds that the impact on real estate markets varies across different suburbs in the host city and over time. The real estate markets of host suburbs experience substantially higher growth during the bidding and pre-Olympic periods but not during the post-Olympic period. However, the property prices in non-host suburbs in the host city increase at a higher rate during the pre- and post-Olympic periods but not during the bidding period. Originality/value – This study offers insights into the long-term impact of the Olympic Games on host suburbs and non-host suburbs in the host city during different periods by analyzing a large longitudinal data set over a period of 27 years.

The causal relationships between stock returns, trading volume, and volatility

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 218-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui-Ching Sana Hsieh
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Causal Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Southeast Asian Countries

Purpose – The real estate markets in Asia have attracted significant investor attention as they have grown rapidly in recent years. Both local and foreign investors continue to display a strong appetite for Asian real estate investment projects. Given the different characteristics of listed real estate stocks, the purpose of this paper is to focus on the causal relations between the financial variables of these stocks. This financial analysis can help investors to understand the characteristics of listed real estate companies, provide implications for optimal asset allocation decisions, and also increase the predictability of portfolio returns. Design/methodology/approach – In this research, the paper investigates the contemporaneous and causal relations between stock returns, trading volume and volatility in a domestic market context and between different national markets for listed real estate companies in seven Asian economies. Findings – The paper finds that there are positive contemporaneous relations between trading volume and both returns and absolute returns. When the paper examines the causal relations between the financial variables, the evidence implies that current trading volume helps to explain the returns indirectly by leading return volatility; however, trading volume does not help to explain future returns directly. Extending the causality test to international markets, the listed real estate portfolios of the four Southeast Asian countries are found to be more closely correlated than those of the other three countries studied here. Among the four Southeast Asian countries, Singapore, the only developed country, is found to play an influential role, its current financial variables having predictive power for the other countries. Originality/value – This research provides global investors with a better understanding of the Asian listed real estate market, showing that trading volume contains important information regarding returns, that the characteristics of listed real estate companies are closer to those of the financial market than those of the real estate markets, and that the markets of the major economies have extensive influence over the smaller markets. Moreover, given the scarcity of research on the performance of Asian listed real estate companies themselves, this study improves the completeness of the academic literature.

scholarly journals SHIRYAEV-ZHOU INDEX – A NOBLE APPROACH TO BENCHMARKING AND ANALYSIS OF REAL ESTATE STOCKS

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eddie C. M. Hui ◽  
Sheung-Chi Phillip Yam ◽  
Si-Wei Chen
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Selling Price ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Index Changes ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
Definite Period

Real estate markets and real estate stocks are interrelated and are important not only to the investors, but also to the academics. Real estate stocks are, in a sense, good measures of performance of the physical real estate market. The objective of this paper is to provide a preliminary study on gauging the performances of real estate stocks in Hong Kong using the Shiryaev-Zhou index. Evidence shows that the Shiryaev-Zhou index can gauge a real estate stock's performance, good or bad, according to the sign of the Shiryaev-Zhou index. Thus a trading strategy can be formulated as follows: buy a stock if its Shiryaev-Zhou index changes from negative to positive, then hold it until its Shiryaev-Zhou index turns negative, when it is time to sell the stock. We examine the Shiryaev-Zhou indices of the real estate stocks in Hong Kong, and from this we deduce the latest best selling dates of the stocks during the period of our study. The Shiryaev-Zhou index could be an indicator of whether the market is bullish or bearish and consequently tells an investor to hold a stock or not, and it naturally leads to an optimal selling strategy that maximize the average ratio of the selling price to the maximum stock price when the underlying coefficients are assumed to be constant over a definite period of time.

scholarly journals Trust in a viable real estate economy with disruption and blockchain

Facilities ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 103-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Veuger
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The real estate world finds itself at a tipping point of a transition: a dramatic and irreversible shift in (real estate) systems in society. This paper is a State of the art of Disruption, Blockchain and Real Estate in the Netherlands and international. Design/methodology/approach The following questions were asked to all those involved: What do you think is the essence of Blockchain for real estate? What is the most current situation with respect to Blockchain and real estate from your perspective? Which publications are important from your perspective? What do you expect with respect to the impact of Blockchain on real estate for (social) real estate? What are questions for the future for real estate and Blockchain? In addition, interviews, exploratory conversations and correspondence took place, and the content was peer reviewed. Findings Changes in value concepts affect the valuation of real estate and the thinking about it. The orientation of changing users and owners of real estate affects innovativeness, values and flexibility in managing that property. Orientation on disruption must be seen as proof that the real estate world is able to actually innovate the accumulated assets and consolidate this. The financial and real estate markets are markets that exaggerate through irrational behaviour. Fear of “eat or be eaten” determines people’s behaviour. Financial and thus real estate markets are always unstable and must always be regulated by people and organizations. Research limitations/implications The question that remains is whether it is important to look at disruptive innovations in existing markets or newcomers in the real estate market and Blockchain. The question is whether Blockchain is only a technological disruption, or a real game changer, and whether the entire value chain of the real estate market will embrace it. No two disruptions are the same. Trust in Blockchain is a prerequisite for guiding the predictable form of that disruption where start-up companies use new technology to offer cheaper and inferior alternatives to real estate in the market. You could also talk about anti-fragile value: “Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Yet, in spite of the ubiquity of the phenomenon, there is no word for the exact opposite of fragile. Let us call it antifragile” (Taleb, 2012), in other words: attention to disruption and Blockchain creates a viable real estate economy. Practical implications The true meaning of the Blockchain technology for real estate still needs to be investigated. The author is still curious to understand and clarify the value of Blockchain for real estate processes. Doubt continues to exist and is therefore a feeding ground for further research, because we do not know what we have not seen. Social implications Looking at the impact of Blockchain on real estate, a number of conclusions can be drawn. First of all, the relationship between Blockchain and real estate has not yet been proven in practice. It is expected to develop further in the form of registering transaction processes and the DNA passport of a real estate object. Secondly, completeness and transparency are the basic ingredients for trust in the system. Third, real estate wants to remain viable. For this reason, taking the offense is necessary for real estate and management to connect with social demand. Behaviour also leads to new earnings models of the social and economic spin-off of disruptive real estate. If the Dutch real estate sector embraces Blockchain and is able to realize innovations, there are opportunities for real estate entrepreneurs to exploit the disruptive character to provide those new services. Originality/value The way in which disruption, Blockchain and real estate will develop in the coming years are not the only obvious characteristics of a particular era but also its social impact and user behaviour. This also applies to how this real estate transition can best be tracked, guided and utilized in society at the international, national and regional level. Disruptive organizations clearly respond to the viability of the (built) environment and therefore determine competitive strength. This affects the current and future valuation of real estate.

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