Longitudinal and temporal assemblage patterns of benthic macroinvertebrates in snow melt stream waters of the Jhelum River Basin of Kashmir Himalaya (India)

Abstract Climate change is a global issue and causes great uncertainties in runoff and streamflow projections, especially in high-altitude basins. The quantification of climatic indicators remains a tedious job for the scarcely gauged mountainous basin. This study investigated climate change by incorporating GCM (CCSM4) using the SDSM method for RCPs in the Jhelum river basin. Historical climatic data were coupled with Aphrodite data to cope with the scarcity of weather stations. SDSM was calibrated for the period 1976–2005 and validated for the period 2006–2015 using R2 and RMSE. Future climatic indicators were downscaled and debiased using the MB-BC method. The de-biased downscaled data and MODIS data were used to simulate discharge of Jhelum river basin using SRM. Simulated discharge was compared with measured discharge by using Dv% and NSE. The R2 and RMSE for SDSM range between 0.89–0.95 and 0.8–1.02 for temperature and 0.86–0.96 and 0.57–1.02 for precipitation. Projections depicted a rising trend of 1.5 °C to 3.8 °C in temperature, 2–7% in mean annual precipitation and 3.3–7.4% in discharge for 2100 as compared to the baseline period. Results depicted an increasing trend for climatic indicators and discharge due to climate change for the basin.

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Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Transboundary Jhelum River Basin of Pakistan and India

Water ◽

10.3390/w8060246 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (6) ◽

pp. 246 ◽

Cited By ~ 21

Author(s):

Rashid Mahmood ◽

Shaofeng Jia

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

River Basin ◽

Jhelum River ◽

Jhelum River Basin ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Spatial and temporal hydro-climatic trends in the transboundary Jhelum River basin

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2017.005 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 423-440 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Rashid Mahmood ◽

Shaofeng Jia

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Stream Flow ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Regression Methods ◽

Climatic Trends ◽

Jhelum River ◽

Increasing Trends ◽

Jhelum River Basin ◽

Operation And Management

The present study examined the hydro-meteorological trends and their magnitudes using the Mann–Kendall, Sen's slope, and linear regression methods in the Jhelum River basin. Maximum and minimum temperatures showed increasing trends in the basin. However, the increasing trends of maximum temperature in all seasons as well as in annual datasets were stronger and statistically more significant than minimum temperature. Precipitation showed non-significant increasing and decreasing trends spread evenly throughout the basin. However, decreasing trends dominated in the basin, except in winter, with an average annual decrease of 3.3 mm. In case of streamflow, seasonal and annual decreasing trends dominated in the basin. Summer showed stronger and significant decreasing trends at most of the hydrometric stations in the basin. An annual decrease of 8 mm was observed at Azad Pattan. These decreasing trends are most probably due to decreasing trends in precipitation and increasing trends in temperature, though other factors such as land use changes, industrialization, and urbanization can also affect the changes in streamflow. These decreasing trends in precipitation and stream flow can have some serious implications in the reduction of water availability to the Mangla reservoir, thus producing many challenges for efficient reservoir operation and management.

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