Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Eastern Africa

Climate change is causing great impact on water resources in Eastern Africa, and there is need to establish and implement effective adaptation and mitigation measures. According to IPCC, less rainfall during the months that are already dry could increase drought as well as precipitation, and this has great impact on both permanent and seasonal water resources. Increased sea surface temperature as a result of climate change could lead to increased drought cases in Eastern African and entire equatorial region. Climate change will also result in annual flow reduction in various river resources available within the region such as the Nile River. IPCC predicts that rainfall will decrease in the already arid areas of the Horn of Africa and that drought and desertification will become more widespread, and as a result, there will be an increased scarcity of freshwater even as groundwater aquifers are being mined. Wetland areas are also being used to obtain water for humans and livestock and as additional cultivation and grazing land. This chapter reviews the climate change impacts on water resources within the Eastern Africa Region. The climate change impacts on different water resources such as Ewao Ngiro have been highlighted and projection of future climate change on water resources examined. Stream flow for Ewaso Ngiro was found to have a significant increasing trend in 2030s of RCP4.5 and non-significant decreasing trend in stream flow in 2060s for RCP4.5.

Impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on water resources in South Western Poland

The paper presents the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the water resources, especially considering groundwater discharge (baseflow) in south-western Poland. The impact of long-term changes of meteorological conditions on the water resources of this area in the 1966-2015 was determined on the basis of changes in the baseflow and total stream flow. Statistical analysis of meteorological and hydrological data showed that the runoff from the Sudeten mountain range and its foreground depends on the circulating climate factors (like the NAO). The annual NAO index best describes the variability of the average annual (12-month) total stream flow and groundwater discharge calculated from February to January and March to February, while the winter NAO index best describes the variability of the average annual (12-month) total stream flow and groundwater discharge calculated from March to February and April to March. The winter NAO index also best describes the variability of the average six-month (6-month) stream flow and groundwater discharge calculated from April to September. In the above-mentioned cases, the values of the Pearson correlation coefficient are at a high level and reach the value of -0.65.

Impact of land use-land cover change on spatio-temporal trends in seasonal stream flow and suspended sediment load of Godavari basin from 1969 to 2019

Assessment of long-term trend in stream flow and sediment load is important for adopting soil and water conservation measures and for predicting morphological changes in rivers. In the present study, detailed quantification of the nature of trend in stream flow and suspended sediment load of Godavari basin, India is reported for the period of 1969 to 2019. The Mann–Kendall test is used to check trend of stream flow and sediment load for different seasons, namely, spring, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter. The land use-land cover of the whole basin is prepared for four decades (1980–2020). The maximum and minimum water and sediment discharge is detected in monsoon and winter season, respectively. The stream flow is found significantly decreased during monsoon and post-monsoon season. The sediment load is significantly decreased for monsoon and spring season. The nature of trend in sediment load is attributed to the land use and land cover change of the basin. The significant reduction suspended sediment load is mainly due to increase in water bodies and planned agricultural area. The findings of the research would help to manage water resources as well as sustainable development in the Godavari basin.

Investigating the Level of Fidelity of an Actuator Line Model in Predicting Loads and Deflections of Rotating Blades under Uniform Free-Stream Flow

In this paper, the accuracy of an in-house Actuator Line (AL) model is tested on aeroelastic simulations of a Wind Turbine (WT) rotor and a helicopter Main Rotor (MR) under uniform free-stream flow. For the scope of aeroelastic analyses, the AL model is coupled with an in-house multibody dynamics code in which the blades are modeled as beams. The advantage from the introduction of CFD analysis in rotorcraft aeroelasticity is related to its capability to account in detail for the interaction of the rotor wake with the boundary layer developed on the surrounding bodies. This has proven to be of great importance in order to accurately estimate the aerodynamic forces and thus the corresponding structural loads and deflections of the blades. In wind turbine applications, a good example of the above is the rotor/ground interaction. In helicopter configurations, the interaction of MR with the ground or the fuselage and the interaction of tail rotor with the duct in fenestron configurations are typical examples. Furthermore, CFD aerodynamic analysis is an obvious modeling option in which the above mentioned asset can be combined with the consideration of the mutual interaction of the rotor with the ambient turbulence. A WT rotor operating inside the atmospheric boundary layer under turbulent free-stream flow is such a case. In the paper, AL results are compared against Blade Element Momentum (BEM) and Lifting Line (LL) model results in the case of the WT, whereas LL and measured data are considered in the helicopter cases. Blade loads and deflections are mainly compared as azimuthal variations. In the helicopter MR cases, where comparison is made against experimental data, harmonic analysis of structural loads is shown as well. Overall, AL proves to be as reliable as LL in the canonical cases addressed in this paper in terms of loads and deflections predictions. Therefore, it can be trusted in more complex flow conditions where viscous effects are pronounced.

Disentangling the effect of climatic and hydrological predictor variables on benthic macroinvertebrate distributions from predictive models

Lotic freshwater macroinvertebrate species distribution models (SDMs) have been shown to improve when hydrological variables are included. However, most studies to date only include data describing climate or stream flow-related surrogates. We assessed the relative influence of climatic and hydrological predictor variables on the modelled distribution of macroinvertebrates, expecting model performance to improve when hydrological variables are included. We calibrated five SDMs using combinations of bioclimatic (bC), hydrological (H) and hydroclimatic (hC) predictor datasets and compared model performance as well as variance partition of all combinations. We investigated the difference in trait composition of communities that responded better to either bC or H configurations. The dataset bC had the most influence in terms of proportional variance, however model performance was increased with the addition of hC or H. Trait composition demonstrated distinct patterns between associated model configurations, where species that prefer intermediate to slow-flowing current conditions in regions further downstream performed better with bC–H. Including hydrological variables in SDMs contributes to improved performance, it is however, species-specific and future studies would benefit from hydrology-related variables to link environmental conditions and diverse communities. Consequently, SDMs that include climatic and hydrological variables could more accurately guide sustainable river ecosystem management.

Analysis of Hydrological Characteristics of Blue Nile Basin, Nashe Watershed

Hydrological modeling is a technique for understanding hydrologic characteristics and estimation of the water balance of watersheds for integrated water resources development and management. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for modeling the hydrological behavior of the Nashe watershed in the north-western part of Ethiopia. The spatial data, daily climate, and stream flow were the required input data for the model. The observed monthly stream flow data at the outlet and selected sub-watersheds in the catchment were used to calibrate and validate the model. The model performance was assessed between the simulated and observed streamflow by using sequential uncertainty fitting-2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation, parameter solution (Parasol) and particle swarm optimization. The sensitivity of 18 parameters was tested, and the most sensitive parameters were identified. The model performance was evaluated using p and r- factor, coefficient of determination, Nash Sutcliffe coefficient efficiency, percent bias during uncertainty analysis, calibration and validation. Therefore, based on the set of proposed evaluation criteria, the SUFI-2 algorithm has been able to provide slightly more reasonable outcomes and Parasol is the worst compared to the other algorithms. An analysis of monthly and seasonal water balance has been also accomplished for the Nashe catchment. The water balance parameters were distinct for the three seasonal periods in the catchment. The seasonal water budget analysis reveals that the watershed receives around 19%, 69%, and 12% of rainfall through the short rain, long rain and dry seasons, respectively. The received precipitation was lost due to evapotranspiration by 29%, 34% and 37% for each season respectively. The surface runoff contributes to the catchment by 5%, 86% and 9% of the water yield.