High- and low-flow variations in annual runoff and their response to climate change in the headstreams of the Tarim River, Xinjiang, China

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 975-988 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongbo Ling ◽  
Hailiang Xu ◽  
Jinyi Fu
2011 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailiang Xu ◽  
Bin Zhou ◽  
Yudong Song

The impacts of climate change on annual runoff were analyzed using hydrologic and meteorological data collected by 8 meteorological stations and 15 hydrological stations in the headstream of the Tarim River Watershed from 1957 to 2005. The long-term trend of climate change and hydrological variations were determined by parametric and non-parametric tests. The results show that the increasing scale of precipitation is less than the scale of rising temperature. The change and response of hydrological process have their own spatial characteristics in the tributaries of a headstream. Precipitation and temperature do not increase simultaneously in the hydro- and meteo-stations located in the headstream. The temperature and runoff displayed certain relations, and a relationship also existed between precipitation and runoff. The annual runoff of the Aksu and Kaidu rivers was consistent with an increasing trend in temperature and precipitation during the past 50 years; temperature increases have a greater effect on annual runoff. These results suggest that with the increase of temperature in the Tarim River Watershed, the glacier in the headstreams would melt gradually which results in runoff increase in several headstreams. However, glacier meltwater would be exhausted due to continual glacier shrinkage, and the increased trend of runoff in the headstreams would also slow or lessen. Thus, regional water resources shortage problems are still serious and have become a major feature in the Tarim River Watershed.


2009 ◽  
Vol 208 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 53-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Yaning ◽  
Xu Changchun ◽  
Hao Xingming ◽  
Li Weihong ◽  
Chen Yapeng ◽  
...  

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Sun ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Rui Yao ◽  
Vijay Singh ◽  
Changqing Song

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna Bolbot ◽  
Vasyl Grebin

<p>The most urgent tasks facing hydrologists of Ukraine and the world include identifying patterns of rivers hydrological regime against the background of global warming, and assessing these changes. Changes in the annual runoff distribution under climate change impact require separate investigation of anthropogenically altered catchments, such as the Siverskyi Donets River Basin. Siverskyi Donets is the largest river in Eastern Ukraine and the main source of water supply for Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions.</p><p>The annual runoff distribution of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin was evaluated by two periods: to the beginning of pronounced climatic changes and the current period. The research is proposed for three water year types: wet year, average year and dry year. The Siverskyi Donets Basin is a complicated water body with peculiar physico-geographical conditions, because of that annual runoff distribution is somewhat different for the left-bank tributaries, right-bank tributaries and, in fact, the Siverskyi Donets River itself.</p><p>It is found that the most runoff of the wet year for both periods is in the spring months. The current period is characterized by a much smaller runoff of spring flood (from the volume of annual runoff) than in the previous period. The annual runoff distribution is offset. Some differences can be observed between the left and right tributaries. For the left-bank tributaries, which has less anthropogenic load, climate change has led to a significant increase of winter and summer-autumn low flow periods. On the right tributaries of the Siverskyi Donets, which are flowing within the industrial part of the Donbass, the low flow period has not changed, or even decreased. Such situation is due to the decrease of mine water disposal because of the industrial production decrease in the region.</p><p>The largest part of the annual runoff in the average year falls on February and March. In the current period, the spring flood has decreased, but the summer and autumn low flow period has increased. The left-bank tributaries runoff during the winter low period is decrease. Instead, the runoff attributable to the autumn and winter low period has increased for the right-bank tributaries and the Siverskyi Donets itself.</p><p>Analyzing the runoff distribution of dry year, we can conclude that the most wet is February. At present, in dry years, spring flood practically are not allocated from the hydrograph; the baseflow months runoff significantly increased. The volume of winter runoff of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin is increased. Actually, for the Siverskyi Donets River the runoff of the summer period has increased and the runoff of the winter and autumn periods has decreased at the present stage.</p><p>The annual runoff distribution of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin in the current climate change has undergone significant changes: the spring flood has decreased and the summer-autumn low flow has increased.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 400 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Tao ◽  
Marco Gemmer ◽  
Yungang Bai ◽  
Buda Su ◽  
Weiyi Mao

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 834-849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaofei Liu ◽  
Zongxue Xu ◽  
Guobin Fu ◽  
Zhijun Yao

Two statistical downscaling models were used to downscale regional climate change scenarios, on the basis of the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios. Driven by these climate change scenarios, a distributed macro-scale hydrological model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model) was applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment (HC) of the Tarim River basin, China. The results showed that the HC tends to experience warmer and drier conditions under the combined climate change scenarios. The predictions show a decreasing trend of the runoff in the HC, driven by the combined climate change scenarios. The results predicted an increasing trend for winter runoff however, which was consistent with the forecasts from most previous studies on other locations such as the region of St Lawrence tributaries (Quebec, Canada) and the Willamette River Basin (Oregon, USA). There was an inconsistent intra-annual distribution of the changes in precipitation and runoff in the HC; these inconsistencies may be explained by increasing snowmelt runoff resulting from higher air temperature. It was concluded that uncertainties within different GCM outputs are more significant than emission scenarios in the assessment of the potential impact of climate change.


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