Multi-temporal runoff-sediment discharge relationships

To understand the runoff-sediment discharge relationship , this study examined the annual runoff and sediment discharge data obtained from the Tangnaihai hydrometric station. The data were decomposed into multiple time scales through Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN). Furthermore, double cumulative curves were plotted and the cointegration theory was employed to analyze the microscopic and macroscopic multi-temporal correlations between the runoff and the sediment discharge and their detailed evolution.

Frequency Analysis of the Nonstationary Annual Runoff Series Using the Mechanism-Based Reconstruction Method

Due to climate change and human activities, the statistical characteristics of annual runoff series of many rivers around the world exhibit complex nonstationary changes, which seriously impact the frequency analysis of annual runoff and are thus becoming a hotspot of research. A variety of nonstationary frequency analysis methods has been proposed by many scholars, but their reliability and accuracy in practical application are still controversial. The recently proposed Mechanism-based Reconstruction (Me-RS) method is a method to deal with nonstationary changes in hydrological series, which solves the frequency analysis problem of the nonstationary hydrological series by transforming nonstationary series into stationary Me-RS series. Based on the Me-RS method, a calculation method of design annual runoff under the nonstationary conditions is proposed in this paper and applied to the Jialu River Basin (JRB) in northern Shaanxi, China. From the aspects of rationality and uncertainty, the calculated design value of annual runoff is analyzed and evaluated. Then, compared with the design values calculated by traditional frequency analysis method regardless of whether the sample series is stationary, the correctness of the Me-RS theory and its application reliability is demonstrated. The results show that calculation of design annual runoff based on the Me-RS method is not only scientific in theory, but also the obtained design values are relatively consistent with the characteristics of the river basin, and the uncertainty is obviously smaller. Therefore, the Me-RS provides an effective tool for annual runoff frequency analysis under nonstationary conditions.

Assessing the Hydrological Effect of Climate Change on Water Balance of a River Basin in Northern Greece

In this work, the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Olynthios River Basin in Northern Greece, were assessed. For this purpose, the climate change scenarios SRES and RCPs were used (SRES A1B, Α2 and RCP4.5, 8.5) - which were taken from two climate models, CGCM3.1/T63 and CanESM2, respectively - for two time periods (2031-2050 and 2081-2100) and for the baseline period (1981-2000). The downscaling was performed using the weather generator ClimGen. The monthly water balance of the Olynthios River Basin was estimated with the use of a conceptual water balance model. Results showed that the annual runoff of the river basin of Olynthios will decrease in response to climate change under all scenarios for both time periods. The results highlight the necessity for adequate adaptation strategies which could improve agricultural water management and reduce the impacts of climate change on agriculture.

Current state of bacterioplankton in Northern Caspian

Microbiological monitoring of the Northern Caspian proved that for the research period in 2013-2018 the average annual value of the total number of bacteria (TBN) was 1.35 million cells/ml. The TBN maximum value (1.46 million cells/ml) was recorded in 2013, the minimum (1.19 million cells/ml) - in 2014. Concentration of saprotrophic bacteria in the waters of the Northern Caspian during the research period varied from 50.94 thousand CFU/ml in 2013 to 1.66 thousand CFU/ml in 2014. The concentration of saprotrophic bacteria remained practically unchanged within 2014-2018. The values of the ratio of the total abundance of microorganisms and saprotrophic bacteria show the eutrophication of the waters of the North Caspian in 2013 and in 2016, in other periods the water quality corresponded to the readings of an oligotrophic reservoir. The maximum number of oil-oxidizing bacteria (OOB) (8.28 thousand CFU/ml) in the waters of the Northern Caspian was recorded in 2013, the minimum (0.21 thousand CFU/ml) - in 2014. Starting from 2015 there was recorded an increasing number of OOBs and its stabilization until the end of the research period. The ratio of NOB and saprotrophs in water varied from 16.47 to 52.47%. Analysis of microbiological and hydrological-hydrochemical indicators revealed positive correlations of TBN and annual runoff (r = + 0.77), TBN and the content of mineral forms of nitrogen (r = + 0.60), the number of saprotrophic bacteria and nitrogen (r = + 0.83), the amount of NOB and mineral nitrogen and silicon (r = + 0.81). In the long-term aspect, an improvement in the microbiological situation was recorded against the background of a growing total number of bacterioplankton under a simultaneous decrease in the number of saprotrophic and oil-oxidizing bacteria.

Analysis of Runoff Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors in the Wujiang River Basin in the Past 30 Years

Changes in climate and the underlying surface are the main factors affecting runoff. Quantitative assessment of runoff characteristics, and determination of the climate and underlying surface contribution to changes in runoff are critical to water resources management and protection. Based on the runoff data from the Wulong Hydrological Station, combined with the Mann-Kendall test, Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA), Budyko hypothesis, and changes in climate and the underlying surface, this study comprehensively analyzed the runoff in the Wujiang River Basin (WRB). The results showed that: (1) The annual runoff of Wujiang River showed a downward trend, and an abrupt change occurred in 2005. (2) The overall hydrological change in WRB is 46%, reaching a moderate change. (3) The contribution rates of precipitation (P), potential evaporation (ET0), and underlying surface to runoff changes are 61.5%, 11.4%, and 26.9%, respectively. (4) After 2005, the WRB has become more arid, human activities have become more active, vegetation coverage has increased, and the built-up land has increased significantly.

Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in the Yue River Watershed of the Qinling Mountains

In recent decades, global climate change, especially human activities, has led to profound changes in the hydrological cycle and hydrological processes in watersheds. Taking the Yue River watershed in the Qinling Mountains in China as the study area, the Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt mutation test method were used to analyze the various characteristics of hydrological and climatic elements from 1960 to 2018. Then, the elastic coefficient method based on the Budyko framework was used to estimate the elastic coefficient of runoff change on each influencing factor. The results showed that the annual runoff decreased at a rate of 0.038 × 108 m3/a ( P > 0.05 ), and a significant abrupt change occurred in 1990. The annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) increased and decreased, with change rates of 0.614 mm/a and −0.811 mm/a ( P > 0.05 ), respectively. The elasticity coefficients of precipitation, ET0, and the underlying surface were 1.95, −0.95, and −0.85, respectively, indicating that annual runoff was most sensitive to the change in precipitation, followed by the change in ET0, and had the lowest sensitivity to the change in the underlying surface. Underlying surface change is the main factor of runoff decrease; the contribution is 89.07%. The total contribution of climate change to runoff change is 10.93%, in which the contributions of precipitation and ET0 are 17.59% and −6.66%, respectively. The NDVI reflecting underlying surface change has been increasing since 1990, which is an important reason for the runoff decrease.

Evaluation of water resources changes of the Mountain Dniester in 20th century following the RCP8.5 scenario and based on the “climate-runoff” model

The relevance of the research consists in the need for evaluating the water resources changes of the Dniester due to global warming. The mountain part of the Dniester Basin is a zone of the river's runoff formation that determines its water content. The subject of research includes a process of climate changes and their impact on the water resources of the Mountain Dniester’s catchments. The research focuses on determining the water resources changes under current and possible future climatic conditions represented by climatic scenarios. The research aims at evaluating the water resources changes of the mountain part of the Dniester’s catchment area at the present and in the future by the mid-21 st century (2021-2050) based on the “climate-runoff” model using meteorological observations data (up to 2018 inclusive) and scenario data (averaged data based on 14 mathematical models of the CORDEX project, RCP8.5 scenario). During the research the resources of humidification, heat (heat equivalent) and water content for modern (1989-2018) and scenario (RCP8.5, 2021-2050) climatic conditions based on application of the "climate-runoff" model were evaluated. The theoretical basis for estimating the natural (undisturbed by water management) annual runoff in this model is represented by the water-heat balance equation. The meteorological characteristics (average monthly air temperatures and precipitation) serve as input data. The runoff calculated using the water-heat balance equation is called a climatic runoff. One of the peculiarities of the research consists in the use of the vertical zoning law with respect to distribution of runoff and climatic factors of its formation. During the comparative analysis the dependence of annual runoff norms on height of the Mountain Dniester’s terrain specified in modern regulatory documents served as a basic dependence. Such dependence reflects an altitude-dependant distribution of runoff for the climatic conditions that preceded the significant impact of global warming on air temperature (until 1989). The analysis of the dependences of average long-term values of the annual runoff depending on the terrain altitude showed that the runoff changes for two studied periods (before and after 1989) are within ±12,3%. The analysis of the graphs of chronological course of annual water flow of the mountain tributaries of the Dniester made it possible to confirm the absence of statistically significant trends in their fluctuations. According to the RCP8.5 climate scenario over the period of 2021-2050 and following the results of calculations based on the “climate-runoff” model, the dependences of the average long-term altitude-related values of climatic factors and climatic runoff were retrieved. It was found that the effects of global warming decrease with increasing altitude. In the foothills (up to 200 m) the annual precipitation decreases (up to 11%), the maximum possible evaporation increases (up to 17%) and water resources decrease (up to 46%). Heat resources cease to increase and water resources cease to reduce at the altitudes over 800 m. The average deviation of the scenario and baseline values for precipitation over the estimated period will amount to 2.41% for precipitation, 5.79% for maximum possible evaporation and 8.87% for water resources. Thus, reduction of water resources in the mountainous part of the Dniester by the mid-21 st century will be insignificant. When evaluating the current state of water resources of the Mountain Dniester no significant changes were discovered, thereby not contradicting the other authors’ data.

Prediction of annual runoff using Artificial Neural Network and Regression approaches

Prediction of runoff is often important for optimal design of water storage and drainage works andmanagement of extreme events like floods and droughts. Rainfall-runoff (RR) models are considered to be most effectiveand expedient tool for runoff prediction. Number of models like stochastic, conceptual, deterministic, black-box, etc. iscommonly available for RR modelling. This paper details a study involving the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN)and Regression (REG) approaches for prediction of runoff for Betwa and Chambal regions. Model performanceindicators such as model efficiency, correlation coefficient, root mean square error and root mean absolute error are usedto evaluate the performance of ANN and REG for runoff prediction. Statistical parameters are employed to find theaccuracy in prediction by ANN and REG for the data under study. The paper presents that ANN approach is found to besuitable for prediction of runoff for Betwa and Chambal regions.

Long-Term Gully Erosion and Its Response to Human Intervention in the Tableland Region of the Chinese Loess Plateau

The gully erosion process is influenced by both natural conditions and human activities on the tableland region, the Chinese Loess Plateau, which is a densely populated agricultural area with unique topography. For the purpose of assessing long-term gully growth rates, the influencing factors and potential of gully growth, KH-4B satellite images, Quickbird-2 images, and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images were used to assess gully erosion from 1969 to 2019. The effects of runoff, topography and human activities were analyzed with information derived from historical and present images. Ninety-five investigated gullies were classified into four types: 45 growing, 25 stable, 21 infilled and four excavated gullies. The rates (RA) of 45 growing gullies ranged from 0.50 to 20.94 m2·yr−1, with an average of 5.66 m2·yr−1 from 1969 to 2010. The present drainage area, local slope, average drainage slope, annual runoff, and ratio of the terraced area were all significantly different between the stable and growing gullies. The long-term gully growth rate could be estimated using a nonlinear regression model with annual runoff (Qa) and the slope of the drainage area (Sd) as predictors (RA = 0.301Qa0.562Sd, R2 = 0.530). Based on the Sg-A and Sg-Qa relationship that was used to reveal the threshold conditions for gully growth, all growing gullies still have the potential to keep growing, but soil and water conservation measures, including terraces, could change the threshold condition by reducing the effective drainage area. The results of this study could be helpful for preventing further gully erosion by dealing with gullies far above the threshold line.