The implications of cash flows for future earnings and stock returns within profit and loss firms

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vassilios‐Christos Naoum ◽  
Georgios A. Papanastasopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Loss Firms

scholarly journals Do corporate bond rating revisions convey information about earnings and dividend changes?

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 373-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven T. Anderson ◽  
Gurmeet Singh Bhabra ◽  
Harjeet S. Bhabra ◽  
Asjeet S. Lamba
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Bond Rating ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Abnormal Stock Returns ◽  
Rating Changes ◽  
Future Cash Flows ◽  
Rating Downgrades

We study the information content of corporate bond rating changes regarding future earnings and dividends. Consistent with previous findings, rating downgrades are associated with negative abnormal stock returns, while rating upgrades appear to be nonevents. For downgrades, earnings decline in the two years prior to and the year of the rating change announcement but increase in the year after the rating review. We also find that rating downgrades are followed by a subsequent downward adjustment in dividends. While rating upgrades follow a period of rising earnings, they do not signal any increase in future earnings and no subsequent dividend adjustments are observed. Overall, our results indicate that rating agencies respond more to permanent changes in cash flows and provide little information, if any, about future cash flows.

Implications of Firms Having Both Highly Negative Accruals and Cash Flows for Test of Accruals Anomaly

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Jung Hoon Kim ◽  
Young Jun Kim
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Small Subset ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Accounts Payable ◽  
Accruals Anomaly ◽  
Loss Firms

SYNOPSIS This study provides evidence that the weak (asset-deflated) accruals anomaly is attributable to firms having both highly negative accruals and cash flows. These firms yield highly negative future stock returns, which weakens the accruals anomaly by depressing overall future stock returns of the lowest accruals portfolio while reinforcing the cash flows anomaly. Among accruals components, accounts payable, depreciation, and non-current accruals capture their declining economic fundamentals and drive away the accruals anomaly. Additionally, we document that firms having both highly negative accruals and cash flows can account for the nonexistence of the accruals anomaly for loss firms, and reconcile the weak asset-deflated accruals anomaly with the robust earnings-deflated accruals anomaly (i.e., percent accruals). Overall, our findings suggest that implications of negative accruals depend on the level of cash flows, and a small subset of firms having both highly negative accruals and cash flows may distort the results of accruals anomaly tests.

scholarly journals Managers’ Investment Decisions: Incentives and Economic Consequences Arising from Leases

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Tim V. Eaton ◽  
Craig Nichols ◽  
James Wahlen ◽  
Matthew Wieland
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Investment Efficiency ◽  
Sales Growth ◽  
Earnings Growth ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Free Cash Flows

What incentives do managers face that might give rise to inefficient investments in leases? If managers make inefficient investments in leases, what economic consequences arise for those managers and their firms? We develop a model of expected investments in leased assets and use the residuals from the model as proxies for inefficient investments. We find that, in contrast to investments in capital expenditures, leasing appears to be a mechanism through which managers can seemingly over-invest, even among firms with high quality financial reporting and negative free cash flows. Examining economic consequences, we predict and find that unexpected investments in leased assets trigger increasing future sales growth but declining future earnings growth for as long as three years ahead. We also find a negative relation with contemporaneous stock returns, suggesting investors view unexpected investments in leases as value destructive. Finally, despite negative returns consequences, we find that unexpected investments in leases are associated with higher CEO compensation driven primarily by future sales growth. Our study suggests that compensation contracts that reward growth may give managers’ incentives to drive sales growth with larger-than-expected investments in leased assets, which lead to slower future earnings growth and negative share price consequences for investors. Our results should inform managers and board members, investors, and researchers interested in investment efficiency, corporate governance, and leases.

Taxable Income, Future Earnings, and Equity Values

2004 ◽  
Vol 79 (4) ◽  
pp. 1039-1074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baruch Lev ◽  
Doron Nissim
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Financial Accounting ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Taxable Income ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Valuation Allowance ◽  
Equity Values ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Income Ratio

We investigate the ability of a tax-based fundamental—the ratio of tax-to-book income—to predict earnings growth and stock returns and to explain the earnings-price ratio. This tax fundamental reflects both temporary and permanent book-tax differences as well as tax accruals, such as changes in the tax valuation allowance. We find that the tax-to-book income ratio predicts subsequent five-year earnings changes, both before and after the implementation of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 109 in 1993. For the pre-SFAS No. 109 period, the tax information is unrelated to contemporaneous earnings-price ratios and strongly related to subsequent stock returns. Conversely, for the post-SFAS No. 109 period, the tax fundamental is strongly related to contemporaneous earnings-price ratios and only weakly related to subsequent stock returns, indicating improvement over time in investors' perceptions of the implications of the tax information for future earnings. Deferred taxes, a component of our tax fundamental and the focus of recent research, exhibits relatively modest ability to predict earnings or stock returns both before and after the implementation of SFAS No. 109. Finally, throughout the examined period, the taxable income information about future earnings is incremental to that in accruals and cash flows.

Discretionary Risk Disclosures

2003 ◽  
Vol 78 (2) ◽  
pp. 449-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bjorn N. Jorgensen ◽  
Michael T. Kirschenheiter
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Voluntary Disclosure ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Risk Disclosure ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Partial Disclosure ◽  
Future Cash Flows

We model managers' equilibrium strategies for voluntarily disclosing information about their firm's risk. We consider a multifirm setting in which the variance of each firm's future cash flow is uncertain. A manager can disclose, at a cost, this variance before offering the firm for sale in a competitive stock market with risk-averse investors. In our partial disclosure equilibrium, managers voluntarily disclose if their firm has a low variance of future cash flows, but withhold the information if their firm has highly variable future cash flows. We establish how the manager's discretionary risk disclosure affects the firm's share price, expected stock returns, and beta, within the framework of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. We show that whereas one manager's discretionary disclosure of his firm's risk does not affect other firms' share prices, it does affect the other firms' betas. Also, we demonstrate that a disclosing firm has lower risk premium and beta ex post than a nondisclosing firm. Finally, we show that ex ante, the expected risk premium and expected beta of each firm are higher under a mandatory risk disclosure regime than in the partial disclosure equilibrium that arises under a voluntary disclosure regime.

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