July droughts over Homogeneous Indian Monsoon region and Indian Ocean dipole during El Niño events

2008 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 1799-1805 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chie Ihara ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir ◽  
Mark A. Cane
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Indian Monsoon ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Monsoon Region ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Indian Monsoon Region ◽  
El Nino Events

scholarly journals Warming Trend of the Indian Ocean SST and Indian Ocean Dipole from 1880 to 2004*

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 2035-2046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chie Ihara ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir ◽  
Mark A. Cane
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Positive Events ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract The state of the Indian Ocean dipole representing the SST anomaly difference between the western and southeastern regions of the ocean is investigated using historical SST reconstructions from 1880 to 2004. First, the western and eastern poles of the SST-based dipole mode index are analyzed separately. Both the western and eastern poles display warming trends over this period, particularly after the 1950s. The western pole tends to be anomalously colder than the eastern pole from 1880 to 1919, whereas in the interval 1950–2004 the SST anomalies over the western pole are comparable to those over the eastern pole though there are occasional outliers where the eastern pole is anomalously colder than the western pole. The tendencies of the occurrences of positive and negative dipole events in September–November show three distinct regimes during the period analyzed. In 1880–1919, negative dipole events associated with La Niña events occur more frequently than positive events. In 1920–49, some weak positive events occur relatively independently of El Niño events over the Pacific. The period of 1960–2004 is characterized by strong and frequent occurrences of positive events associated with El Niño events.

scholarly journals Studies of the seasonal prediction of heavy late spring rainfall over southeastern China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shouwen Zhang ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Hua Jiang ◽  
Wentao Ma
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Late Spring ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
River Region ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

AbstractThe late spring rainfall may account for 15% of the annual total rainfall, which is crucial to early planting in southeastern China. A better understanding of the precipitation variations in the late spring and its predictability not only greatly increase our knowledge of related mechanisms, but it also benefits society and the economy. Four models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) were selected to study their abilities to forecast the late spring rainfall over southeastern China and the major sources of heavy rainfall from the perspective of the sea surface temperature (SST) field. We found that the models have better abilities to forecast the heavy rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region (MLYZR) with only a 1-month lead time, but they failed for a 3-month lead time since the occurrence of the heavy rainfall was inconsistent with the observations. The observations indicate that the warm SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean are vital to the simultaneously heavy rainfall in the MLYZR in May, but an El Niño event is not a necessary condition for determining the heavy rainfall over the MLYZR. The heavy rainfall over the MLYZR in May is always accompanied by warming of the northeastern Indian Ocean and of the northeastern South China Sea (NSCS) from April to May in the models and observations, respectively. In the models, El Niño events may promote the warming processes over the northeastern Indian Ocean, which leads to heavy rainfall in the MLYZR. However, in the real world, El Niño events are not the main reason for the warming of the NSCS, and further research on the causes of this warming is still needed.

The Extreme El Niño Events Suppressing the Intraseasonal Variability in the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (8) ◽  
pp. 2359-2372
Author(s):  
Gengxin Chen ◽  
Dongxiao Wang ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Ming Feng ◽  
Fan Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Intraseasonal Variability ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Extreme El Niño ◽  
El Nino Events

AbstractIn the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, intraseasonal variability (ISV) affects the regional oceanography and marine ecosystems. Mooring and satellite observations documented two periods of unusually weak ISV during the past two decades, associated with suppressed baroclinic instability of the South Equatorial Current. Regression analysis and model simulations suggest that the exceptionally weak ISVs were caused primarily by the extreme El Niño events and modulated to a lesser extent by the Indian Ocean dipole. Additional observations confirm that the circulation balance in the Indo-Pacific Ocean was disrupted during the extreme El Niño events, impacting the Indonesian Throughflow Indian Ocean dynamics. This research provides substantial evidence for large-scale modes modulating ISV and the abnormal Indo-Pacific dynamical connection during extreme climate modes.

Indian Ocean Variability in the GFDL Coupled Climate Model

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (13) ◽  
pp. 2895-2916 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Song ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Anthony J. Rosati
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Warm Pool ◽  
Surface Winds ◽  
Pacific Warm Pool ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract The interannual variability of the Indian Ocean, with particular focus on the Indian Ocean dipole/zonal mode (IODZM), is investigated in a 250-yr simulation of the GFDL coupled global general circulation model (CGCM). The CGCM successfully reproduces many fundamental characteristics of the climate system of the Indian Ocean. The character of the IODZM is explored, as are relationships between positive IODZM and El Niño events, through a composite analysis. The IODZM events in the CGCM grow through feedbacks between heat-content anomalies and SST-related atmospheric anomalies, particularly in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. The composite IODZM events that co-occur with El Niño have stronger anomalies and a sharper east–west SSTA contrast than those that occur without El Niño. IODZM events, whether or not they occur with El Niño, are preceded by distinctive Indo-Pacific warm pool anomaly patterns in boreal spring: in the central Indian Ocean easterly surface winds, and in the western equatorial Pacific an eastward shift of deep convection, westerly surface winds, and warm sea surface temperature. However, delayed onsets of the anomaly patterns (e.g., boreal summer) are often not followed by IODZM events. The same anomaly patterns often precede El Niño, suggesting that the warm pool conditions favorable for both IODZM and El Niño are similar. Given that IODZM events can occur without El Niño, it is proposed that the observed IODZM–El Niño relation arises because the IODZM and El Niño are both large-scale phenomena in which variations of the Indo-Pacific warm pool deep convection plays a central role. Yet each phenomenon has its own dynamics and life cycle, allowing each to develop without the other. The CGCM integration also shows substantial decadal modulation of the occurrence of IODZM events, which is found to be not in phase with that of El Niño events. There is a weak, though significant, negative correlation between the two. Moreover, the statistical relationship between the IODZM and El Niño displays strong decadal variability.

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF DIPOLE MODE AND EL-NINO EVENTS ON CATCHES OF YELLOWFIN TUNA (Thunnus albacares) IN THE EASTERN INDIAN OCEAN OFF WEST JAVA

2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khairul Amri ◽  
Ali Suman ◽  
Hari Eko Irianto ◽  
Wudianto Wudianto
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Yellowfin Tuna ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Thunnus Albacares ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole Mode ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

The effects of Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on catches of YellowfinTuna (<em>Thunnus albacares</em>) in the Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) off Java were evaluated through the use of remotely sensed environmental data (sea surface temperature/SST and chlorophyll-a concentration/SSC) and Yellowfin Tuna catch data. Analyses were conducted for the period of 2003–2012, which included the strong positive dipole mode event in association with weak El-Nino 2006.Yellowfin Tuna catch data were taken from Palabuhanratu landing place and remotely sensed environmental data were taken from MODIS-Aqua sensor.The result showed that regional climate anomaly Indian Ocean Dipole Mode influenced Yellowfin Tuna catch and its composition. The catches per unit effort (CPUE) of Thunnus alabacares in the strong positive dipole mode event in 2006 and weak El-Nino events in 2011 and 2012 was higher. The increase patern of CPUE followed the upwelling process, started from May-June achieved the peak between September-October.Very high increase in CPUE when strong positive dipole mode event (2006) and a weak El-Nino events (2011 and 2012) had a relation with the increase in the distribution of chlorophyll-a indicating an increase in the abundance of phytoplankton (primary productivity) due to upwelling. In contrast, yellowfin tuna CPUE is very low at the La-Nina event (2005), though as the dominant catch when compared to others.

scholarly journals The Delayed Effect of Major El Niño Events on Indian Monsoon Rainfall

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 932-946 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyo-Seok Park ◽  
John C. H. Chiang ◽  
Benjamin R. Lintner ◽  
Guang J. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Indian Monsoon ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Indian Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Moist Processes ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract Previous studies have shown that boreal summer Indian monsoon rainfall is, on average, significantly above normal after major El Niño events. In this study, the underlying causes of this rainfall response are examined using both observational analysis and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. Moist static energy budgets for two strong El Niño events (1982/83 and 1997/98), estimated from monthly 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40), suggest that stronger low-level moisture transport and reduced moist stability associated with a warmer north Indian Ocean (NIO) can increase monsoon rainfall, despite a weakened monsoon circulation. The trade-off between a dynamically weaker monsoon and moist processes favoring enhanced monsoonal rainfall is broken during the late monsoon season (August–September) as the warm NIO enhances surface latent heat flux and the monsoon circulation relaxes back to the climatological mean. The monsoon circulation strength and the moist processes work together in the late season, which explains the observed tendency for monsoonal rainfall increases during the late monsoon season after strong winter El Niño conditions. Idealized AGCM experiments with a fixed-depth ocean mixed layer demonstrate that the remnant but weaker-than-peak warm SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific during spring and the early summer following winter El Niños substantially contribute to the NIO warming. The results suggest that local air–sea interactions in the tropical Indian Ocean after winter El Niño are strongly dependent on the details of El Niño’s decaying trend.

scholarly journals Differences in the Initiation and Development of the Madden–Julian Oscillation over the Indian Ocean Associated with Two Types of El Niño

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1397-1415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pang-Chi Hsu ◽  
Ting Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Cp El Niño ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Ep El Niño ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract The influences of different types of Pacific warming, often classified as the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events, on Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity over the Indian Ocean were investigated. Accompanied by relatively unstable (stable) atmospheric stratification induced by enhanced (reduced) moisture and moist static energy (MSE) in the lower troposphere, strengthened (weakened) MJO convection was observed in the initiation and eastward-propagation stages during CP (EP) El Niño events. To examine the key processes resulting in the differences in low-level moistening and column MSE anomalies over the Indian Ocean associated with the two types of El Niño, the moisture and column MSE budget equations were diagnosed using the reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim. The results indicate that the enhanced horizontal advection in the CP El Niño years plays an important role in causing a larger moisture and MSE growth rate over the MJO initiation area during CP El Niño events than during EP El Niño events. The increases in horizontal moisture and MSE advection primarily result from advection by mean flow across the enhanced intraseasonal moisture and MSE gradient, as well as by intraseasonal circulation across the mean moisture and MSE gradient associated with the CP El Niño. In the eastward development stage, the enhanced preconditioning comes from positive moisture and MSE advection anomalies in the CP El Niño events. Meanwhile, the strengthened MJO-related convection over the central-eastern Indian Ocean is maintained by increased atmospheric radiative heating and surface latent heat flux during the CP El Niño compared to the EP El Niño events.

Influences of ENSO Teleconnection on the Persistence of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Indian Ocean

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (23) ◽  
pp. 8177-8195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruiqiang Ding ◽  
Jianping Li
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sign Reversal ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract This study confirms a weak spring persistence barrier (SPB) of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western tropical Indian Ocean (WIO), a strong fall persistence barrier (FPB) in the South China Sea (SCS), and the strongest winter persistence barrier (WPB) in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SEIO). During El Niño events, a less abrupt sign reversal of SSTAs occurs in the WIO during spring, an abrupt reversal occurs in the SCS during fall, and the most abrupt reversal occurs in the SEIO during winter. The sign reversal of SSTA implies a rapid decrease in SSTA persistence, which is favorable for the occurrence of a persistence barrier. The present results indicate that a more abrupt reversal of SSTA sign generally corresponds to a more prominent persistence barrier. El Niño–induced changes in atmospheric circulation result in reduced evaporation and suppressed convection. This in turn leads to the warming over much of the TIO basin, which is an important mechanism for the abrupt switch in SSTA, from negative to positive, in the northern SCS and SEIO. The seasonal cycle of the prevailing surface winds has a strong influence on the timing of the persistence barriers in the TIO. The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) alone can cause a weak WPB in the SEIO. El Niño events co-occurring with positive IOD further strengthen the SEIO WPB. The SEIO WPB appears to be more strongly influenced by ENSO than by the IOD. In contrast, the WIO SPB and the SCS FPB are relatively independent of the IOD.

scholarly journals Studies of the Seasonal Prediction of Heavy Late Spring Rainfall Over Southeastern China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shouwen Zhang ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Hua Jiang ◽  
Wentao Ma
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Late Spring ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
River Region ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract The late spring rainfall may account for 15% of the annual total rainfall, which is crucial to early planting in southeastern China. A better understanding of the precipitation variations in the late spring and its predictability not only greatly increase our knowledge of related mechanisms, but it also benefits society and the economy. Four of the current models participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) were selected to study their abilities to forecast the late spring rainfall over China and the major sources of this heavy rainfall from the perspective of the sea surface temperature (SST) field. We found that the models have better abilities to forecast the heavy rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region (MLYZR) with only a 1-month lead time, but they failed for a 3-month lead time since the occurrence of the heavy rainfall was inconsistent with the observations. The observations indicate that the warm SST anomalies in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean are vital to the simultaneously heavy rainfall in the MLYZR in May, but an El Niño event is not a necessary condition for determining the heavy rainfall over the MLYZR. The heavy rainfall over the MLYZR in May is always accompanied by warming of the northeastern Indian Ocean and of the northeastern South China Sea (NSCS) from April to May in the models and observations, respectively. In the models, El Niño events may promote the warming processes over the northeastern Indian Ocean, which leads to heavy rainfall in the MLYZR. However, in the real world, El Niño events are not the main reason for the warming of the NSCS, and further research on the causes of this warming is still needed.

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