Dynamical-Empirical forecast for the Indian monsoon rainfall using the NCEP Coupled Modelling System – Application for real time monsoon forecast

The performance of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) operational coupled modeling system known as the Climate Forecast System (CFS) is evaluated for the prediction of all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) during June to September (JJAS). The evaluation is based on the hindcast initialized during March, April and May with 15 ensemble members each for 25 years period from 1981 to 2005.The CFS’s hindcast climatology during JJAS of March (lag-3), April (lag-2) and May (lag-1) initial conditions show mostly an identical pattern of rainfall similar to that of observed climatology with both the rainfall maxima (over the west-coast of India and over the head Bay of Bengal region) well captured, with a signification correlation coefficient between the forecast and observed climatology over the Indian monsoon region (bounded by 50°E-110°E and 10°S-35°N) covering Indian land mass and adjoining oceanic region. Although the CFS forecast rainfall is overestimated over the Indian monsoon region, the land only rainfall amount is underestimated compared to observation. The skill of the prediction of monsoon rainfall over the Indian land mass is found to be relatively weak, although it is significant at 95% with a correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.44 with April ensembles.By using CFS predicted JJAS rainfall over the regions of significant CCs, a hybrid dynamical-empirical model is developed for the real time prediction of AISMR, whose skill is found to be much higher (CC significant above 99% level) than the raw CFS forecasts. The dynamical-empirical hybrid forecast applied on real time for 2009 and 2010 monsoons are found to be much closer to the observed AISMR. Thus, when the hybrid model is used there is a correction not only to the sign of the actual forecast as in the case of 2009 monsoon but also to its magnitude and hence can be used as a better tool for the real time prediction of AISMR.

Interactions among deep convection, sea surface temperature and radiation in the Asian monsoon region

The climatic interactions among deep convection, sea surface temperature and radiation in the Asian monsoon region have been examined using various satellite-derived data sets of the period 1983-90. Annual average Frequency of Deep Convection (FDC) is maximum over the equatorial east Indian ocean and adjoining west Pacific and Indonesian region. Maximum FDC zone shifts to Bay of Bengal during the monsoon (June-September) season. There is weak relationship between the variations in FDC and SST in the Indian ocean. Deep convective activity was suppressed over most of the tropical Indian ocean during El Nino of 1987 in spite of warmer SSTs. The pattern of inter-annual variation between FDC and SST behaves differently in the Indian ocean basin as compared to the Pacific ocean basin. Deep convective clouds interact with radiation very effectively in the Asian monsoon region to cause large net negative cloud radiative forcing. Variation in FDC explains more than 70% of the variation in surface short-wave cloud radiative forcing (SWCRF) and long wave cloud radiative forcing (LWCRF) in the atmosphere. On inter-annual scale, warmer SSTs may not necessarily increase deep convection in the Indian ocean. However, the inter-annual variation of deep convective clouds influences significantly the radiative budget of the surface-atmosphere system in the Asian monsoon region. The satellite observations suggest that warmer SSTs in the Indian ocean might have resulted from an increase in the absorbed solar radiation at the surface due to a reduction in deep convective cloud cover.

Towards an improved representation of carbonaceous aerosols over the Indian monsoon region in a regional climate model RegCM4.6

Mitigation of carbonaceous aerosol emissions is expected to provide climate and health co-benefits. The accurate representation of carbonaceous aerosols in climate models is critical for reducing uncertainties in their climate feedbacks. In this regard, emission fluxes and aerosol life-cycle processes are the two primary sources of uncertainties. Here we demonstrate that incorporating a dynamic ageing scheme and emission estimates that are updated for the local sources improve the representation of carbonaceous aerosols over the Indian monsoon region in a regional climate model, RegCM, compared to its default configuration. The mean BC and OC surface concentrations in 2010 are estimated to be 4.25 and 10.35 μg m−3, respectively, over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), in the augmented model. The BC column burden over the polluted IGP is found to be 2.47 mg m−2, 69.95 % higher than in the default model configuration and much closer to available observations. The anthropogenic AOD increases by more than 19 % over the IGP due to the model enhancement, also leading to a better agreement with observed AOD. The top-of-the-atmosphere, surface, and atmospheric anthropogenic aerosol shortwave radiative forcing are estimated at −0.3, −9.3, and 9.0 W m−2, respectively, over the IGP and −0.89, −5.33, and 4.44 W m−2, respectively, over Peninsular India. Our results suggest that both the accurate estimates of emission fluxes and a better representation of aerosol processes are required to improve the aerosol life cycle representation in the climate model.

Speleothem records of monsoon interannual-interdecadal variability through the Holocene

Modern observations show considerable interannual to interdecadal variability in monsoon precipitation. However, there are few reconstructions of variability at this timescale through the Holocene, and there is therefore less understanding of how changes in external forcing might have affected monsoon variability in the past. Here, we reconstruct the evolution of the amplitude of interannual to interdecadal variability (IADV) in the East Asian, Indian and South American monsoon regions through the Holocene using a global network of high-resolution speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) records. We reconstruct changes in IADV for individual speleothem records using the standard deviation of δ18O values in sliding time windows after correcting for the influence of confounding factors such as variable sampling resolution, growth rates and mean climate. We then create composites of IADV changes for each monsoon region. We show that there is an overall increase in δ18O IADV in the Indian monsoon region through the Holocene, with an abrupt change to present-day variability at ~2 ka. In the East Asian monsoon, there is an overall decrease in δ18O IADV through the Holocene, with an abrupt shift also seen at ~2 ka. The South American monsoon is characterised by large multi-centennial shifts in δ18O IADV through the early and mid-Holocene, although there is no overall change in variability across the Holocene. Our regional IADV reconstructions are broadly reproduced by transient climate-model simulations of the last 6 000 years. These analyses indicate that there is no straightforward link between IADV and changes in mean precipitation, or between IADV and orbital forcing, at a regional scale.

Observation of aerosol induced ‘lower tropospheric cooling’ over Indian core monsoon region

Aerosols play a significant role in regional scale pollution that alters the cloud formation process, radiation budget, and climate. Here, using long-term (2003-2019) observations from multi-satellite and ground-based remote sensors, we show robust aerosol-induced instantaneous daytime lower tropospheric cooling during the pre-monsoon season over the Indian core monsoon region (ICMR). Quantitatively, an average cooling of -0.82±0.11 °C to -1.84±0.25 °C is observed in the lower troposphere. The observed cooling is associated with both aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions processes. The elevated dust and polluted-dust layers cause extinction of the incoming solar radiation, thereby decreasing the lower tropospheric temperature. The aerosol-cloud interactions also contribute to enhancement of cloud fraction which further contributes to the lower tropospheric cooling. The observed cooling results in a stable lower tropospheric structure during polluted conditions, which can also feedback to cloud systems. Our findings suggest that aerosol induced lower tropospheric cooling can strongly affect the cloud distribution and circulation dynamics over the ICMR, a region of immense hydroclimatic importance.