A Unified Approach to Model Selection, Discrimination, Goodness of Fit and Outliers in Time Series

Author(s):  
Daniel Peña ◽  
Pedro Galeano
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Dupré la Tour ◽  
Lucille Tallot ◽  
Laetitia Grabot ◽  
Valérie Doyère ◽  
Virginie van Wassenhove ◽  
...  

AbstractWe address the issue of reliably detecting and quantifying cross-frequency coupling (CFC) in neural time series. Based on non-linear auto-regressive models, the proposed method provides a generative and parametric model of the time-varying spectral content of the signals. As this method models the entire spectrum simultaneously, it avoids the pitfalls related to incorrect filtering or the use of the Hilbert transform on wide-band signals. As the model is probabilistic, it also provides a score of the model “goodness of fit” via the likelihood, enabling easy and legitimate model selection and parameter comparison; this data-driven feature is unique to our model-based approach. Using three datasets obtained with invasive neurophysiological recordings in humans and rodents, we demonstrate that these models are able to replicate previous results obtained with other metrics, but also reveal new insights such as the influence of the amplitude of the slow oscillation. Using simulations, we demonstrate that our parametric method can reveal neural couplings with shorter signals than non-parametric methods. We also show how the likelihood can be used to find optimal filtering parameters, suggesting new properties on the spectrum of the driving signal, but also to estimate the optimal delay between the coupled signals, enabling a directionality estimation in the coupling.Author SummaryNeural oscillations synchronize information across brain areas at various anatomical and temporal scales. Of particular relevance, slow fluctuations of brain activity have been shown to affect high frequency neural activity, by regulating the excitability level of neural populations. Such cross-frequency-coupling can take several forms. In the most frequently observed type, the power of high frequency activity is time-locked to a specific phase of slow frequency oscillations, yielding phase-amplitude-coupling (PAC). Even when readily observed in neural recordings, such non-linear coupling is particularly challenging to formally characterize. Typically, neuroscientists use band-pass filtering and Hilbert transforms with ad-hoc correlations. Here, we explicitly address current limitations and propose an alternative probabilistic signal modeling approach, for which statistical inference is fast and well-posed. To statistically model PAC, we propose to use non-linear auto-regressive models which estimate the spectral modulation of a signal conditionally to a driving signal. This conditional spectral analysis enables easy model selection and clear hypothesis-testing by using the likelihood of a given model. We demonstrate the advantage of the model-based approach on three datasets acquired in rats and in humans. We further provide novel neuroscientific insights on previously reported PAC phenomena, capturing two mechanisms in PAC: influence of amplitude and directionality estimation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Mark Levene

A bootstrap-based hypothesis test of the goodness-of-fit for the marginal distribution of a time series is presented. Two metrics, the empirical survival Jensen–Shannon divergence (ESJS) and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov two-sample test statistic (KS2), are compared on four data sets—three stablecoin time series and a Bitcoin time series. We demonstrate that, after applying first-order differencing, all the data sets fit heavy-tailed α-stable distributions with 1<α<2 at the 95% confidence level. Moreover, ESJS is more powerful than KS2 on these data sets, since the widths of the derived confidence intervals for KS2 are, proportionately, much larger than those of ESJS.


2006 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 365-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henkjan Honing

While the most common way of evaluating a computational model is to see whether it shows a good fit with the empirical data, recent literature on theory testing and model selection criticizes the assumption that this is actually strong evidence for the validity of a model. This article presents a case study from music cognition (modeling the ritardandi in music performance) and compares two families of computational models (kinematic and perceptual) using three different model selection criteria: goodness-of-fit, model simplicity, and the degree of surprise in the predictions. In the light of what counts as strong evidence for a model’s validity—namely that it makes limited range, nonsmooth, and relatively surprising predictions—the perception-based model is preferred over the kinematic model.


2011 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiqing Ling ◽  
Howell Tong

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