Catching Uncertainty of Wind: A Blend of Sieve Bootstrap and Regime Switching Models for Probabilistic Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Speed

2016 ◽  
pp. 279-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yulia R. Gel ◽  
Vyacheslav Lyubchich ◽  
S. Ejaz Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sieve Bootstrap ◽  
Regime Switching Models ◽  
Switching Models ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

scholarly journals Improving short-term forecasting during ramp events by means of Regime-Switching Artificial Neural Networks

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Gallego ◽  
A. Costa ◽  
A. Cuerva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Neural Nets ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Ramp Events ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Abstract. Ramp events are large rapid variations within wind power time series. Ramp forecasting can benefit from specific strategies so as to particularly take into account these shifts in the wind power output dynamic. In the short-term context (characterized by prediction horizons from minutes to a few days), a Regime-Switching (RS) model based on Artificial Neural Nets (ANN) is proposed. The objective is to identify three regimes in the wind power time series: Ramp-up, Ramp-down and No-ramp regime. An on-line regime assessment methodology is also proposed, based on a local gradient criterion. The RS-ANN model is compared to a single-ANN model (without regime discrimination), concluding that the regime-switching strategy leads to significant improvements for one-hour ahead forecasts, mainly due to the improvements obtained during ramp-up events. Including other explanatory variables (NWP outputs, local measurements) during the regime assessment could eventually improve forecasts for further horizons.

scholarly journals Option Pricing and Hedging for Discrete Time Regime-Switching Models

2017 ◽  
Vol 08 (08) ◽  
pp. 1005-1032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Rémillard ◽  
Alexandre Hocquard ◽  
Hugo Lamarre ◽  
Nicolas Papageorgiou
Keyword(s):  
Option Pricing ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Regime Switching Models ◽  
Switching Models ◽  
Time Regime
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