Measurements of the Conditional Dependence Structure Among Carbon, Fossil Energy and Renewable Energy Prices: Vine Copula Based GJR-GARCH Model

Author(s):  
Yefan Zhou ◽  
Jianxu Liu ◽  
Jirakom Sirisrisakulchai ◽  
Songsak Sriboonchitta
Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 622
Author(s):  
Kyung-Taek Kim ◽  
Deok-Joo Lee ◽  
Donghyun An

A carbon market was introduced for the first time in January 2005, when the EU assigned carbon emission allowances to approximately 15,000 enterprises in 25 countries and established a market for emissions trading. In Korea, the carbon emission trading system started from January 2015 with three phases running up to 2025. As many countries have introduced carbon markets, new evaluation models that consider not only fossil energy prices but also carbon emission costs are necessary because additional costs of using fossil energy might have been incurred due to carbon emissions. The purpose of this paper is to develop a real option model that considers not only the uncertainty of existing fossil energy prices, but also the uncertainty of carbon emission rights prices, in evaluating the economic value of renewable energy R&D. Using the real option model, we attempted to assess the effects of the uncertainty of newly appearing carbon markets on the economic value of renewable energy R&D in Korea empirically. Furthermore, we derived an optimal decision path according to the uncertain future situations of fossil energy and carbon markets by analyzing a trinomial lattice model in which the optimal timings of R&D and deployment are identified.


Author(s):  
Václav Klepáč ◽  
David Hampel

The article points out the possibilities of using static D-Vine copula ARMA-GARCH model for estimation of 1 day ahead market Value at Risk. For the illustration we use data of the four companies listed on Prague Stock Exchange in range from 2010 to 2014. Vine copula approach allows us to construct high-dimensional copula from both elliptical and Archimedean bivariate copulas, i.e. multivariate probability distribution, created from process innovations. Due to a deeper shortage of existing domestic results or comparison studies with advanced volatility governed VaR forecasts we backtested D-Vine copula ARMA-GARCH model against the VaR rolling out of sample forecast from October 2012 to April 2014 of chosen benchmark models, e.g. multivariate VAR-GO-GARCH, VAR-DCC-GARCH and univariate ARMA-GARCH type models. Common backtesting via Kupiec and Christoffersen procedures offer generalization that technological superiority of model supports accuracy only in case of an univariate modeling – working with non-basic GARCH models and innovations with leptokurtic distributions. Multivariate VAR governed type models and static Copula Vines performed in stated backtesting comparison worse than selected univariate ARMA-GARCH, i.e. it have overestimated the level of actual market risk, probably due to hardly tractable time-varying dependence structure.


Buildings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elaheh Jalilzadehazhari ◽  
Georgios Pardalis ◽  
Amir Vadiee

The majority of the single-family houses in Sweden are affected by deteriorations in building envelopes as well as heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems. These dwellings are, therefore, in need of extensive renovation, which provides an excellent opportunity to install renewable energy supply systems to reduce the total energy consumption. The high investment costs of the renewable energy supply systems were previously distinguished as the main barrier in the installation of these systems in Sweden. House-owners should, therefore, compare the profitability of the energy supply systems and select the one, which will allow them to reduce their operational costs. This study analyses the profitability of a ground source heat pump, photovoltaic solar panels and an integrated ground source heat pump with a photovoltaic system, as three energy supply systems for a single-family house in Sweden. The profitability of the supply systems was analysed by calculating the payback period (PBP) and internal rate of return (IRR) for these systems. Three different energy prices, three different interest rates, and two different lifespans were considered when calculating the IRR and PBP. In addition, the profitability of the supply systems was analysed for four Swedish climate zones. The analyses of results show that the ground source heat pump system was the most profitable energy supply system since it provided a short PBP and high IRR in all climate zones when compared with the other energy supply systems. Additionally, results show that increasing the energy price improved the profitability of the supply systems in all climate zones.


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