Precise agricultural predictions of climate change effects on crop water productivity are essential to ensure food security and alleviate water scarcity. In this regard, the present study provides an overview of the future impacts of climate change on the irrigation of agricultural products such as rice, millet, maize, cassava, sorghum, and sugar cane. These crops are some of the most-consumed foodstuffs in countries of the Niger River basin. This study is realized throughout 2020 to 2080, and three Global Climate Models (GCMs) (CSIRO, MIROC5, and ECHAM. MPI-ESM-LR) have been used. The GCMs data have been provided by the IPCC5 database. The irrigation water requirement for each crop was calculated using Smith’s CROPWAT approach. The Penman–Monteith equation recommended by the FAO was used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration. The inter-annual results of the IWR, according to the set of models selected, illustrate that the largest quantities of water used for irrigation are generally observed between January and March, and the lowest quantities are the most often seen between July and September. The majority of models also illustrate a peak in the IWR between March and April. Sorghum and millet are the crops consuming the least amount of water for irrigation; followed by cassava, then rice and corn, and finally sugar cane. The most significant IWRs, which have been predicted, will be between 16.3 mm/day (MIROC5 model, RCP 4.5) and 45.9 mm/day (CSIRO model, RCP 4.5), particularly in Mali, Niger, Algeria, and rarely in Burkina-Faso (CSIRO model, RCP4.5 and 8.5). The lowest IWRs predicted by the models will be from 1.29 mm/day (MIROC5 model, RCP 4.5) to 33.4 mm/day (CSIRO model, RCP 4.5); they will be observed according to the models in Guinea, southern Mali, Ivory Coast, center and southern Nigeria, and Cameroon. However, models predict sugarcane to be the plant with the highest IWR, between 0.25 mm/day (Benin in 2020–2040) and 25.66 mm/day (Chad in 2060–2080). According to the models’ predictions, millet is the crop with the most IWR, between 0.20 mm/day (Benin from 2020 to 2060) and 19.37 mm/day (Chad in 2060–2080). With the results of this study, the countries belonging to the Niger River basin can put in place robust policies in the water resources and agriculture sectors, thus ensuring food security and high-quality production of staple crops, and avoiding water scarcity while facing the negative impacts of climate change.
Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas
