scholarly journals Modeling the Price of Natural Gas with Temperature and Oil Price as Exogenous Factors

2015 ◽  
pp. 109-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Müller ◽  
Guido Hirsch ◽  
Alfred Müller
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Exogenous Factors

scholarly journals Crude oil, natural gas, and economic growth: impact and causality analysis in Caspian Sea region

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 169-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
S M Rashed Jahangir ◽  
Betul Yuce Dural
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Price ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The main objective of this study was to investigate the impact and causality of crude oil and natural gas on economic growth in the Caspian Sea region. Here, the study applies ordinary least square (OLS) method and Granger causality test using time series data from 1997 to 2015 to ascertain the impact and causality of crude oil and natural gas on economic growth. The results, according to the OLS method, evince that crude oil and natural gas have a significant impact on economic growth of the region. Alongside, considering causality test, gross domestic product (GDP) does Granger cause (unidirectional) crude oil price and export which denotes that GDP can help to forecast crude oil price and export; however, crude oil price and export cannot help to forecast GDP. Surprisingly, this direction is unlikely for GDP and natural gas. GDP and natural gas have unidirectional, but opposite causal relationship, i.e., natural gas price and export do Granger cause GDP which signify that natural gas price and export can help to forecast GDP; however, GDP cannot help to forecast crude oil price and export.

scholarly journals Modeling UK Natural Gas Prices When Gas Prices Periodically Decouple from the Oil Price

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Asche ◽  
Atle Oglend ◽  
Petter Osmundsen
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Natural Gas Prices

scholarly journals TECHNOECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF REFINING NIGERIAN LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS CONDENSATE

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-54
Author(s):  
I.O Oseni ◽  
E.O Agbonghae ◽  
C.N Nwaozuzu
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Liquefied Natural Gas ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Catalytic Reforming ◽  
Price Forecast ◽  
Technoeconomic Analysis ◽  
Light Oil ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario

Condensate refining is among the strategies proposed to solve the light oil glut around the globe. The Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG), which is the Nigerian government’s best performing investment in the natural gas value chain, produces plant condensate as a by-product. In this paper, the economics of a refinery designed to use NLNG plant condensate is evaluated under an optimistic oil price forecast and a pessimistic oil price trend. A gasoline producing refinery configuration was chosen for this study, and it comprises of a naphtha splitter, a Penex isomerisation unit and a Continuous Catalytic Reforming (CCR) unit. The product yields and plant costs were determined by established correlations and industry estimates. The proposed refinery will convert 40,000 bpd plant condensate into 96% gasoline, 3% LPG and 1% hydrogen, and economic indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Profitability Index (PI) were used to assess the economic viability of the refinery. The optimistic scenario of oil price forecast resulted in an NPV of $ 531.90 million, an IRR of 20.09% and a PI of 3.16, while the pessimistic scenario gave an NPV of $16.26 million, an IRR of 11.16% and a PI of 1.07. These results prove that a condensate refinery with the proposed configuration is economically feasible and interested investors in Nigeria’s refining space should explore this possibility.

scholarly journals Oil Price Indexing Of Natural Gas Prices

2007 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Bartholomae ◽  
Karl Morasch
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Natural Gas Prices

ZusammenfassungDie Ölpreisbindung des Erdgaspreises ist ein hervorstechendes Merkmal des Gasmarktes in Deutschland und anderen europäischen Ländern. Diese Besonderheit ist eng verknüpft mit der Existenz lokaler Monopole (trotz Liberalisierung bestehen diese bislang zumindest in Deutschland de facto weiterhin) und sogenannter „take-or-pay” Verträge (TOP contracts), d. h. fixer Abnahmeverpflichtungen zu einem an die Entwicklung des Ölpreises gekoppelten Abnahmepreis. Nach einer Diskussion der Beziehung zwischen diesen drei Besonderheiten des Erdgasmarktes und der möglichen Gründe für die Ölpreisbindung analysieren wir diese Strategie in einem Oligopolmodell mit differenzierten Produkten mit einem monopolistischen Erdgasanbieter und einem oder mehreren konkurrierenden Ölhändlern. Zunächst zeigen wir im Rahmen einer symmetrischen Spezifikation auf, wie die Ölpreisbindung die Kollusion zwischen Erdgas- und Ölanbietern ermöglicht. Anschließend berücksichtigen wir mögliche Asymmetrien zwischen den beiden Energieformen. Dabei zeigt sich, dass das Ergebnis bei Symmetrie nicht robust ist und wir diskutieren im Detail wie die Auswirkung der Ölpreisbindung auf Preise, Gewinne und Wohlfahrt von der Art und vom Ausmaß der Asymmetrien abhängt.

scholarly journals The Dynamic Impacts of Oil Price on China’s Natural Gas Consumption under the Change of Global Oil Market Patterns: An Analysis from the Perspective of Total Consumption and Structure

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 867 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Chai ◽  
Ying Jin
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
Structural Mutation ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
International Price ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, China’s energy structure has been adjusted unceasingly, where the proportion of natural gas has been increasing year by year, and its external dependence has also been increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss the correlation between China’s natural gas market and the international energy market. This paper studies the dynamic relationship between China’s total natural gas consumption, consumption structure, and the international price of oil from the perspectives of mutation and time-variance, using the cointegration test with regime shifts and a state space model. The results show that during the global financial crisis in 2008, the cointegration relationship between China’s total natural gas consumption and the international oil price has undergone structural changes. January 2012 and March 2015 are potential structural mutation points. After the structural mutation, the impact of the international price of oil on China’s total natural gas consumption has weakened. From a structural point of view, urban gas and power generation gas have both been greatly affected by the change of oil price, while industrial gas and chemical gas are less affected. The conclusion here will provide an important empirical reference for optimizing the structure of natural gas consumption and maintaining energy security in China.

scholarly journals Price and Volatility Spillovers Between the US Crude Oil and Natural Gas Wholesale Markets

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2757 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theodosios Perifanis ◽  
Athanasios Dagoumas
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Volatility Transmission ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Natural Gas Prices ◽  
Market Fundamentals ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Gas Price

The paper examines both the time-varying price and volatility transmission between US natural gas and crude oil wholesale markets, over the period 1990–2017. Short iterations suggest that neither commodity determines other’s returns, but sub-periods with very short-lived causal relationships exist. It can be asserted that the markets are decoupled, where unconventional production further enhances the already established commodities’ independence. Using Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) cointegration methodology, we find evidence of positive asymmetry from crude oil to natural gas prices, i.e., oil price increases cause faster adjustments to natural gas prices than decreases. We also find that an 1% change of oil price has positive and significantly larger long-term impact (between 0.01% to 0.02%) to the gas price, compared to the negligible impact of gas to oil. Volatility transmission is examined using the Dynamic Conditional Covariance (DCC)-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) methodology, presenting their time-varying correlation. Results show that both commodities influence each other’s volatility at the aggregate level. Finally, we conclude that both regional commodity markets are liquid and integrated, where the market fundamentals drive their price formulation. However, although markets are decoupled and not appropriate for perfect hedging of each other, the existence of bidirectional volatility transmission and their substitutability might be useful for diversified portfolio allocation.

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