Performance of cocoa beans production modelling in Indonesia

Cocoa beans production Indonesia has decline in recent years but demand for cocoa beans relatively increase. This research aims to analyse the modelling of cocoa beans production in Indonesia. This research used secondary data from 2005-2018, with simultaneous equation models. The results of this research indicate that the production of cocoa beans has a positive relationship with land area, international price of cocoa beans and lag of cocoa beans production, while the price of domestic cocoa beans has a negative relationship with cocoa beans production. Domestic demand for cocoa beans has a positive relationship with domestic price of cocoa beans and the cocoa processing industry. Domestic price of cocoa beans has a positive relationship with domestic demand for cocoa beans, international price of cocoa beans and lag domestic price of cocoa beans, while cocoa beans production has a negative relationship with domestic cocoa bean prices.

Vector error correction model relationship between three vegetable oil products

International price of palm oil fluctuated frequently. It is predicted that the international price of palm oil is affected by the other vegetable oil prices. Soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil are the three most important vegetable oil in the word. These commodities compete but on the other hand the world prices are moving in the same direction. This paper analyzes the relationship of these three prices in the short-run and long-run. The method utilizes in the analysis is the vector error correction model (VECM) followed by Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition. The data used is monthly data from January 2003 until December 2020. The results indicate that in the short-run, only the lag of each vegetable oil prices affects their own price. Meanwhile, in the long-run the three prices have long-run relationship or in other words the prices are cointegrated. Using variance decomposition and impulse response shows that soybean oil price has more effect on rapeseed and palm oil prices. Therefore, it can be concluded, the fluctuation of rapeseed and palm oil prices will be affected by the price fluctuation of soybean oil price

Is there a pass-through from the international coff ee price to the Mexican coff ee market?

We estimate the transmission of coff ee prices from the international market to the Mexican market for the period 2004-2019. Our estimates are obtained from a single equation conditional Error Correction Model (ECM). We estimate our proposed model for two overlapping periods: before a hypothesised break (2004-2013), and full sample (2004-2019). The results of the first estimation suggest that given a 1% increase in the international price of coff ee, the Mexican price increases by 0.9%, which is larger than previous estimates in the literature, but a finding which is consistent with the idea of more market integration due to free trade agreements. Furthermore, we find that Mexican coff ee production has no eff ect in the determination of local coff ee prices. Our model also implies a previously undocumented break in the long-run relationship between international and national prices, which started in 2015 but was statistically significant until 2017. This latter finding suggests that the international coff ee price pass-through to the Mexican economy has come to an end.

Price gains to push policy tightening up bank agendas

Headline INTERNATIONAL: Price gains prompt tightening talks

Analisis Daya Saing dan Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Biji Kopi Indonesia Ke Jepang

Indonesia is one of the developing countries in the world with abundant availability of natural resources, one of which is coffee bean commodities. Overproduction will be a benefit if the commodity can be exported mainly to developed countries, one of which is Japan. This study aims to analyze how much competitiveness value of Indonesian coffee bean commodities and factors that affect the volume of Indonesian coffee bean exports to Japan. This study used secondary data with a period of 12 years in the period 2008-2019. The Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) method is used to analyze the competitiveness of coffee beans as well as the Double Linear Regression Analysis with the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model used to analyze the influence of coffee bean production, exchange rates and international prices of coffee on the volume of coffee bean exports to Japan. The results of the study found that during the period 2008-2019 the value of Indonesian coffee beans RCA has a strong competitiveness because it has a value of more than 1; partial production of coffee beans does not affect the export volume of coffee beans while the exchange rate and international price of coffee partially negatively affects the volume of Indonesian coffee beans exports to Japan.

Indonesian coffee exports and its relation to global market integration

Coffee price is an important indicator that stimulates farmers to advance their welfare. Unfortunately, coffee crisis makes the farm gate price uncertain and volatile. This study aims to explore the Indonesian coffee export situation related to price risks and coffee market integration between Indonesian coffee price and international price. The time series data were the coffee price from 1987 to 2014 in Indonesian domestic market and in global trade in London. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach was applied to test market integration based on Ravallion’s equation. Based on the analysis, the results of the study revealed that Indonesian coffee export performed progressively in the last decade. Export destination countries for Indonesian coffee also developed broadly. There was market integration on the Indonesian coffee market and global price in the London terminal. Although not fully, the shock in the international price was somehow felt in the Indonesian coffee market. There were sufficient shreds of evidence to conclude that the Indonesian coffee market is well integrated with the international market in the long run. The changing coffee price in Indonesia and the International market adjusted in the next three years. In short term, Indonesian coffee price was 76% influenced by international price changes, but not vice versa.JEL Classification D49; Q02; Q17