Contamination of Sediments in the German North Sea Estuaries Elbe, Weser and Ems and Its Sensitivity to Climate Change

Abstract. The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and γ-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models. To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10 yr periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. Since estimates of future concentration levels of POPs in the atmosphere, oceans and rivers are not available, our approach was to reutilise 2005 values in the atmosphere, rivers and at the open ocean boundaries for every year of the simulations. In this way, we attribute differences between the three 10 yr simulations to climate change only. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilised, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model. Dry gas deposition and volatilisation of γ-HCH increase in the future relative to the present. In the water column, total mass of γ-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment, γ-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, both of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods.

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Impact of a wind climate change on the surge in the southern North Sea

Climate Research ◽

10.3354/cr008045 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

pp. 45-59 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

W Bijl

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Sea ◽

Southern North Sea ◽

Wind Climate

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Afsluitdijk climate resilient with XblocPlus

10.2749/ghent.2021.0256 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Bas Reedijk ◽

Pieter Bakker

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level ◽

North Sea ◽

Wadden Sea ◽

Water Levels ◽

Visual Appearance ◽

Seaward Side ◽

Reference Design ◽

Wave Heights ◽

Crest Height

The Afsluitdijk forms 32 km of the primary sea defence of the Netherlands. The Afsluitdijk was built as a closure dam in 1932 and separates the IJsselmeer from the Wadden-Sea and North Sea. Because of climate change the Afsluitdijk needs to be strengthened. A higher crest height is required to limit overtopping at higher water levels due to sea level rise. Heavier armour is required to protect the Afsluitdijk from higher wave heights. Because of the historic value of the Afsluitdijk, stringent architectural requirements are in place on the visual appearance of the dam after strengthening [1]. Therefore, a new concrete armour unit was developed to provide protection of the seaward side of the Afsluitdijk. This armour unit is called XblocPlus. The development of the armour unit is based on the breakwater armour unit Xbloc which has been applied since 2004. A saving of 56% on CO2 footprint was achieved compared to the Clients reference design.

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Surface Heat Budget over the North Sea in Climate Change Simulations

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos10050272 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. 272 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Christian Dieterich ◽

Shiyu Wang ◽

Semjon Schimanke ◽

Matthias Gröger ◽

Birgit Klein ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Heat Flux ◽

North Sea ◽

Heat Budget ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Surface Heat ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea ◽

Rcp 8.5 ◽

Surface Heat Budget

An ensemble of regional climate change scenarios for the North Sea is validated and analyzed. Five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs) using three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have been downscaled with the coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean model RCA4-NEMO. Validation of sea surface temperature (SST) against different datasets suggests that the model results are well within the spread of observational datasets. The ensemble mean SST with a bias of less than 1 ∘ C is the solution that fits the observations best and underlines the importance of ensemble modeling. The exchange of momentum, heat, and freshwater between atmosphere and ocean in the regional, coupled model compares well with available datasets. The climatological seasonal cycles of these fluxes are within the 95% confidence limits of the datasets. Towards the end of the 21st century the projected North Sea SST increases by 1.5 ∘ C (RCP 2.6), 2 ∘ C (RCP 4.5), and 4 ∘ C (RCP 8.5), respectively. Under this change the North Sea develops a specific pattern of the climate change signal for the air–sea temperature difference and latent heat flux in the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In the RCP 8.5 scenario the amplitude of the spatial heat flux anomaly increases to 5 W/m 2 at the end of the century. Different hypotheses are discussed that could contribute to the spatially non-uniform change in air–sea interaction. The most likely cause for an increased latent heat loss in the central western North Sea is a drier atmosphere towards the end of the century. Drier air in the lee of the British Isles affects the balance of the surface heat budget of the North Sea. This effect is an example of how regional characteristics modulate global climate change. For climate change projections on regional scales it is important to resolve processes and feedbacks at regional scales.

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Spatially resolved past and projected changes of the suitable thermal habitat of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) under climate change

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1093/icesjms/fsz132 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 76 (7) ◽

pp. 2389-2403

Author(s):

Ismael Núñez-Riboni ◽

Marc H Taylor ◽

Alexander Kempf ◽

Miriam Püts ◽

Moritz Mathis

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Sea ◽

Gadus Morhua ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Southern Bight ◽

Spatially Resolved ◽

The North

Abstract Previous studies have identified changes in habitat temperature as a major factor leading to the geographical displacement of North Sea cod in the last decades. However, the degree to which thermal suitability is presently changing in different regions of the North Sea is still unclear, or if temperature alone (or together with fishery) is responsible for this displacement. In this study, the spatial distribution of different life stages of cod was modelled from 1967 to 2015. The model is fit point-to-point, spatially resolved at scales of 20 km. The results show that suitability has decreased south of 56°N (>12% in the Southern Bight) and increased north of it (with maximum of roughly 10% in southern Skagerrak). Future changes to suitability were estimated throughout the century using temperature projections from a regional climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario RCP8.5. The results show that southern Skagerrak, the central and northern North Sea and the edge of the Norwegian trench will remain thermally suitable for North Sea cod throughout the century. This detailed geographical representation of thermally suitable key zones for North Sea cod under climate change is revealed for the first time through the improved resolution of this analysis.

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Climate change impact on North Sea wave conditions: a consistent analysis of ten projections

Ocean Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s10236-014-0800-z ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 65 (2) ◽

pp. 255-267 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Iris Grabemann ◽

Nikolaus Groll ◽

Jens Möller ◽

Ralf Weisse

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Sea ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Change Impact ◽

Wave Conditions ◽

Sea Wave

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Implementation of NEMO v4.0.1 as ocean component for the regional climate modeling framework

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21486 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Janna Abalichin ◽

Birte-Marie Ehlers ◽

Frank Janssen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Baltic Sea ◽

North Sea ◽

Climate Modeling ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Modeling ◽

Water Levels ◽

Climate Extreme ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

The Impact

The &#8216;German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change&#8217; (DAS) provides the political framework to climate change mitigation and adaptation in Germany. The associated &#8216;Adaption Action Plan&#8217; envisages the establishment of an operational forecasting and projection service for climate, extreme weather and coastal and inland waterbodies. This service is intended to make use of a regional climate modeling framework, with NEMO v4.0.(1) as the ocean component. The atmospheric component will be provided by the German Weather Service (either the current weather forecasting model ICON or COSMO will be used) and will be coupled to NEMO after testing and calibration of NEMO on the regional scale.The area of interest includes besides the North Sea and the Baltic Sea the entire North-West-Shelf to take into account cross-shelf transport, the water exchange between North Sea and Baltic Sea and the impact of North Atlantic weather systems on the internal dynamics of the seas. One focus area will be German Bight, well known for its large tidal flats, which make wetting & drying a desirable model feature, which will be tested in future. The used/implemented bathymetry includes the up to date measurements of the sea floor from the EMODNET network.To achieve a proper description of the dynamics in this region the model has to be calibrated with regard to the timing and amplitude of the water levels in the coastal waters, the water inflow through the Danish straits, the thermal stratification as well as the seasonality and thickness of the sea ice in the Northern Baltic Sea.These efforts are carried out in the pilot project &#8216;Projection Service for Waterways and Shipping&#8217; (ProWaS).

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