Spatially resolved past and projected changes of the suitable thermal habitat of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) under climate change

Abstract Previous studies have identified changes in habitat temperature as a major factor leading to the geographical displacement of North Sea cod in the last decades. However, the degree to which thermal suitability is presently changing in different regions of the North Sea is still unclear, or if temperature alone (or together with fishery) is responsible for this displacement. In this study, the spatial distribution of different life stages of cod was modelled from 1967 to 2015. The model is fit point-to-point, spatially resolved at scales of 20 km. The results show that suitability has decreased south of 56°N (>12% in the Southern Bight) and increased north of it (with maximum of roughly 10% in southern Skagerrak). Future changes to suitability were estimated throughout the century using temperature projections from a regional climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario RCP8.5. The results show that southern Skagerrak, the central and northern North Sea and the edge of the Norwegian trench will remain thermally suitable for North Sea cod throughout the century. This detailed geographical representation of thermally suitable key zones for North Sea cod under climate change is revealed for the first time through the improved resolution of this analysis.

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An update of IPCC climate reference regions for subcontinental analysis of climate model data: definition and aggregated datasets

Earth System Science Data ◽

10.5194/essd-12-2959-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 2959-2970

Author(s):

Maialen Iturbide ◽

José M. Gutiérrez ◽

Lincoln M. Alves ◽

Joaquín Bedia ◽

Ruth Cerezo-Mota ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Climate Adaptation ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Atmospheric Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Scatter Plots ◽

Projected Changes

Abstract. Several sets of reference regions have been used in the literature for the regional synthesis of observed and modelled climate and climate change information. A popular example is the series of reference regions used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Adaptation (SREX). The SREX regions were slightly modified for the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC and used for reporting subcontinental observed and projected changes over a reduced number (33) of climatologically consistent regions encompassing a representative number of grid boxes. These regions are intended to allow analysis of atmospheric data over broad land or ocean regions and have been used as the basis for several popular spatially aggregated datasets, such as the Seasonal Mean Temperature and Precipitation in IPCC Regions for CMIP5 dataset. We present an updated version of the reference regions for the analysis of new observed and simulated datasets (including CMIP6) which offer an opportunity for refinement due to the higher atmospheric model resolution. As a result, the number of land and ocean regions is increased to 46 and 15, respectively, better representing consistent regional climate features. The paper describes the rationale for the definition of the new regions and analyses their homogeneity. The regions are defined as polygons and are provided as coordinates and a shapefile together with companion R and Python notebooks to illustrate their use in practical problems (e.g. calculating regional averages). We also describe the generation of a new dataset with monthly temperature and precipitation, spatially aggregated in the new regions, currently for CMIP5 and CMIP6, to be extended to other datasets in the future (including observations). The use of these reference regions, dataset and code is illustrated through a worked example using scatter plots to offer guidance on the likely range of future climate change at the scale of the reference regions. The regions, datasets and code (R and Python notebooks) are freely available at the ATLAS GitHub repository: https://github.com/SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS (last access: 24 August 2020), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463 (Iturbide et al., 2020).

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Shifts in spawning phenology of cod linked to rising sea temperatures

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1093/icesjms/fsx025 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 74 (6) ◽

pp. 1561-1573 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Kate McQueen ◽

C. Tara Marshall

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Sea ◽

Gadus Morhua ◽

Atlantic Cod ◽

Size Structure ◽

Gonadal Development ◽

Trophic Levels ◽

Irish Sea ◽

The North ◽

The North Sea

AbstractWarming temperatures caused by climate change have the potential to impact spawning phenology of temperate marine fish as some species have temperature-dependent gonadal development. Inter-annual variation in the timing of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) spawning in the northern North Sea, central North Sea and Irish Sea was estimated by calculating an annual peak roe month (PRM) from records of roe landings spanning the last three decades. A trend towards earlier PRM was found in all three regions, with estimates of shifts in PRM ranging from 0.9 to 2.4 weeks per decade. Temperatures experienced by cod during early vitellogenesis correlated negatively with PRM, suggesting that rising sea temperatures have contributed to a shift in spawning phenology. A concurrent reduction in the mean size of spawning females excluded the possibility that earlier spawning was due to a shift in size structure towards larger individuals, as large cod spawn earlier than smaller-sized individuals in the North Sea. Further research into the effects of climate change on the phenology of different trophic levels within the North Sea ecosystem should be undertaken to determine whether climate change-induced shifts in spawning phenology will result in a temporal mismatch between cod larvae and their planktonic prey.

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Impact of climate change on runoff timing over the Hindukush Karakorum Himalaya (HKH) region using CORDEX-CORE scenario simulations

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7549 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wajeeha Shafeeq ◽

Erika Coppola ◽

Fabio Di Sante

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Convective Precipitation ◽

The South ◽

Unique Region ◽

Vast Number ◽

The North ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation

Hindukush Karakorum and Himalayan (HKH) is a unique region with a vast number of glaciers and lies in the north of the South Asia landmass, which serves as the main reservoir for the South Asian freshwater resources. By using CORDEX-CORE downscaled simulations with ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.7) the climate change impact on the water resources of the HKH region is analysed. HKH contains Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra water basins, which are feed from both snow as well as precipitation. Due to the temperature increase over this region, the snowmelt timing will be affected, and therefore the snowmelt driven runoff (SDR) in the whole HKH basin. This effect will be combined with the projected increase of precipitation and in particular convective precipitation mostly due to extreme precipitation increase. As a result for the whole HKH basin, the water year will be longer with a shift (negative) toward the earlier months of the year of the time when the 25th (~2-3 months), 50th( ~1month), and 75th (~1 month) percentile of the total runoff is observed in a certain point, in the upper part of the basin and a positive shift (~10 days) in the lower part of the basin for the 50th and 75th percentile. The results show that the Indus basin is the one most affected by the snow melt time change followed by the Brahmaputra and Ganges as the last one. This study indicates that changing climate may result in a shift in the discharge timing over the HKH region and this information may be crucial for planning the mitigation and adaptation actions like for example building dams, changing dam regulation options, and changing agriculture strategies.

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The Sensitivity of Regional Climate Projections to SSP-Based Land Use Changes in the North American CORDEX Domain

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5906 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Melissa Bukovsky ◽

Linda Mearns ◽

Jing Gao ◽

Brian O'Neill

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

North American ◽

Land Surface ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Rcp Scenarios ◽

The North

In order to assess the combined effects of green-house-gas-induced climate change and land-use land-cover change (LULCC), we have produced regional climate model (RCM) simulations that are complementary to the North-American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) simulations, but with future LULCCs that are consistent with particular Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).&#160; In standard, existing NA-CORDEX simulations, land surface characteristics are held constant at present day conditions.&#160; These new simulations, in conjunction with the NA-CORDEX simulations, will help us assess the magnitude of the changes in regional climate forced by LULCC relative to those produced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;Understanding the magnitude of the regional climate effects of LULCC is important to the SSP-RCP scenarios framework. &#160;Whether or not the pattern of climate change resulting from a given SSP-RCP pairing is sensitive to the pattern of LULCC is an understudied problem.&#160; This work helps address this question, and will inform thinking about possible needed modifications to the scenarios framework to better account for climate-land use interactions.Accordingly, in this presentation, we will examine the state of the climate at the end of the 21st century with and without SSP-driven LULCCs in RCM simulations produced using WRF under the RCP8.5 concentration scenario.&#160; The included LULCC change effects have been created following the SSP3 and SSP5 narratives using an existing agricultural land model linked with a new long-term spatial urban land model.&#160;

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The Impacts of Climate Change on Autumn North Atlantic Midlatitude Cyclones

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli4058.1 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 20 (7) ◽

pp. 1174-1187 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Jing Jiang ◽

William Perrie

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Co2 Concentration ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Northwest Atlantic ◽

High Co2 ◽

The North ◽

Atlantic Hurricanes

Abstract This study explores how midlatitude extratropical cyclone intensities, frequencies, and tracks can be modified under warming-induced conditions due to enhanced greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Simulations were performed with the Canadian mesoscale compressible community (MC2) model driven by control and high CO2 climate estimates from the Canadian Climate Centre model, the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2). CGCM2 simulations have effective CO2 concentration forcing, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a scenario conditions, which define a near doubling of CO2 concentrations by 2050 compared to the 1980s. The control and high CO2 conditions were obtained from years 1975–94 and 2040–59 of CGCM2 simulations. For the northwest Atlantic, the CO2-induced warming for this period (2040–59) varies from ∼1°–2°C in the subtropics, near the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes, to ∼1°C in the north. In simulations of northwest Atlantic storms, the net impact of this enhanced CO2 scenario is to cause storms to increase in radius, with marginal tendencies to become more severe and to propagate faster (although not statistically significant), and for the mean storm tracks to shift slightly poleward.

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Potential Value of Expert Elicitation for Determining Differential Credibility of Regional Climate Change Simulations: An Exercise with the NARCCAP co-PIs for the Southwest Monsoon Region of North America

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-15-00019.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 98 (1) ◽

pp. 29-35 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Linda O. Mearns ◽

Melissa S. Bukovsky ◽

Vanessa J. Schweizer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Change ◽

Expert Elicitation ◽

Model Quality ◽

Model Simulations ◽

The North ◽

Climate Model Simulations

Abstract In this brief article, we report the initial results of an expert elicitation with the co-PIs (regional climate modelers) of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program regarding their evaluation of the relative quality of regional climate model simulations focusing on the subregion dominated by the North American monsoon (NAM). We assumed that an expert elicitation framework might reveal interesting beliefs and understanding that would be different from what would be obtained from calculating quantitative metrics associated with model quality. The simulations considered were of six regional climate models (RCMs) that used NCEP Reanalysis 2 as boundary conditions for the years 1980–2004. The domain covers most of North America and adjacent oceans. The seven participating regional modelers were asked to complete surveys on their background beliefs about model credibility and their judgments regarding the quality of the six models based on a series of plots of variables related to the NAM (e.g., temperature, winds, humidity, moisture flux, precipitation). The specific RCMs were not identified. We also compared the results of the expert elicitation with those obtained from using a series of metrics developed to evaluate a European collection of climate model simulations. The results proved to be quite different in the two cases. The results of this exercise proved very enlightening regarding regional modelers’ perceptions of model quality and their beliefs about how this information should or should not be used. Based on these pilot study results, we believe a more complete study is warranted.

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Quantifying the Likelihood of Regional Climate Change: A Hybridized Approach

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-11-00730.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 26 (10) ◽

pp. 3394-3414 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

C. Adam Schlosser ◽

Xiang Gao ◽

Kenneth Strzepek ◽

Andrei Sokolov ◽

Chris E. Forest ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Massachusetts Institute Of Technology ◽

Adaptation To Climate Change ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Near Surface ◽

Institute Of Technology

Abstract The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to climate change calls for increased capability in climate projections: specifically, the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Herein, the authors present a technique that extends the latitudinal projections of the 2D atmospheric model of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) by applying longitudinally resolved patterns from observations, and from climate model projections archived from exercises carried out for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The method maps the IGSM zonal means across longitude using a set of transformation coefficients, and this approach is demonstrated in application to near-surface air temperature and precipitation, for which high-quality observational datasets and model simulations of climate change are available. The current climatology of the transformation coefficients is observationally based. To estimate how these coefficients may alter with climate, the authors characterize the climate models’ spatial responses, relative to their zonal mean, from transient increases in trace-gas concentrations and then normalize these responses against their corresponding transient global temperature responses. This procedure allows for the construction of metaensembles of regional climate outcomes, combining the ensembles of the MIT IGSM—which produce global and latitudinal climate projections, with uncertainty, under different global climate policy scenarios—with regionally resolved patterns from the archived IPCC climate model projections. This hybridization of the climate model longitudinal projections with the global and latitudinal patterns projected by the IGSM can, in principle, be applied to any given state or flux variable that has the sufficient observational and model-based information.

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Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2014/753790 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-8 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Ji-Woo Lee ◽

Suryun Ham ◽

Song-You Hong ◽

Kei Yoshimura ◽

Minsu Joh

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regional Climate Model ◽

Surface Runoff ◽

Climate Model ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Simulation ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

The Future

This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM), namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs), Regional Model Program (RMP). The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070) simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

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