Short-Term Forecasting of the Global Solar Irradiation Using the Fuzzy Modeling Technique: Case Study of Tamanrasset City, Algeria

2015 ◽  
pp. 281-289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyes Saad Saoud ◽  
Fayçal Rahmoune ◽  
Victor Tourtchine ◽  
Kamel Baddari
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Modeling ◽  
Modeling Technique ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Global Solar Irradiation ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Assessment of a newly developed short-term forecasting system (nextSENSE) of Downwelling Surface Solar Irradiance (DSSI) and validation with ground-based measurements

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou ◽  
Ilias Fountoulakis ◽  
Panagiotis Kosmopoulos ◽  
Dimitris Kouroutsidis ◽  
Panagiotis I. Raptis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Large Spatial Scale ◽  
Infrared Imager ◽  
Flow Motion ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

<p>Monitoring and forecasting cloud coverage is crucial for nowcasting and forecasting of solar irradiance reaching the earth surface, and it’s a powerful tool for solar energy exploitation systems.</p><p>In this study, we focused on the assessment of a newly developed short-term (up to 3h) forecasting system of Downwelling Surface Solar Irradiation (DSSI) in a large spatial scale (Europe and North Africa). This system forecasts the future cloud position by calculating Cloud Motion Vectors (CMV) using Cloud Optical Thickness (COT) data derived from multispectral images from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) onboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite and an optical flow motion estimation technique from the computer vision community. Using as input consecutive COT images, CMVs are calculated and cloud propagation is performed by applying them to the latest COT image. Using the predicted COT images, forecasted DSSI is calculated using Fast Radiative Transfer Models (FRTM) in high spatial (5 km over nadir) and temporal resolution (15 min time intervals intervals).</p><p>A first evaluation of predicted COT has been conducted, by comparing the predicted cloud parameter of COT with real observed values derived by the MSG/SEVIRI. Here, the DSSI is validated against ground-based measurements from three Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) stations, for the year 2017. Also, a sensitivity analysis of the effect on DSSI for different cloud and aerosol conditions is performed, to ensure reliability under different sky and climatological conditions.</p><p>The DSSI short-term forecasting system proposed, complements the existing short-term forecasting techniques and it is suitable for operational deployment of solar energy related systems</p><p>Acknowledgements</p><p>This study was funded by the EuroGEO e-shape (grant agreement No 820852).</p>

Water Level Short-Term Forecasting Using Statistical Approaches: A Case Study on the Parisian Region

2020 ◽  
pp. 453-463
Author(s):  
Nicolas Cheifetz ◽  
Hugo Senetaire ◽  
Cédric Féliers ◽  
Véronique Heim
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Statistical Approaches ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

scholarly journals Comparison Between Measurements and WRF Numerical Simulation of Global Solar Irradiation in Romania

2013 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dragos Isvoranu ◽  
Viorel Badescu
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Measured Data ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Accessibility ◽  
Power Stations ◽  
Photovoltaic Power ◽  
Global Solar Irradiation ◽  
Global Irradiation

Abstract The paper presents a comparative analysis between the surface global irradiation measured for Romania and the predicted irradiation obtained by numerical simulation. The measured data came from the Romanian National meteorological Administration. Based on a preliminary analysis that took into account several criteria among which, performance, cost, popularity and meteorological and satellite data accessibility we concluded that a combination GFS-WRF(NMM) or GFS-WRF(ARW) is most suitable for short term global solar irradiation forecasting in order to assess the performance of the photovoltaic power stations (Badescu and Dumitrescu, 2012, [1], Martin et al., 2011, [2]).

A load curve based fuzzy modeling technique for short-term load forecasting

2003 ◽  
Vol 135 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.E. Papadakis ◽  
J.B. Theocharis ◽  
A.G. Bakirtzis
Keyword(s):  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Modeling ◽  
Modeling Technique ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Load Curve ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

scholarly journals Preliminary Wrf-Arw Model Analysis of Global Solar Irradiation Forecasting

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dragos Isvoranu ◽  
Viorel Badescu
Keyword(s):  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Simulation Data ◽  
Power Stations ◽  
Global Solar Irradiation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Arw Model ◽  
Best Fit

Abstract The purpose of this research is focused on the evaluation of short term global solar irradiation forecasting performance in order to assess the outcome of photovoltaic power stations. The paper presents a comparative analysis between the predicted irradiation obtained by numerical simulation and measurements. The simulation data is obtained from WRF-ARW model (Weather Research Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF), whose initial and boundary conditions are provided by the global forecasting model GFS. Taking into account the complexity of options for the physics models provided with WRF, we embarked upon a parametric analysis of the simulated solar irradiance. This complex task provides a better insight among the coupling of various physics options and enables us to find the best fit with the measured data for a specified site and time period. The present preliminary analysis shows that the accuracy of the computed global solar irradiance can be improved by choosing the appropriate built-in physics models. A combination of physics models providing the best results has been identified.

scholarly journals Short-Term Forecasting of Water Yield from Forested Catchments after Bushfire: A Case Study from Southeast Australia

Water ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 599-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mana Gharun ◽  
Mohammad Azmi ◽  
Mark Adams
Keyword(s):  
Water Yield ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forested Catchments ◽  
Southeast Australia ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Case Study: Analysis and Predictions of Shipment Load in Festive Season

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 491
Author(s):  
Megha Chhabra
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Models ◽  
Multiplicative Decomposition ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Case Study Analysis ◽  
Use Of Time ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Festive Season

A time-phased forecasting in rest of the year has a huge impact shipping costs, however during a festive season of the year, well predicted and analyzed re-engineering of shipment load plays a major role in bringing up sales. The major concern of the customer is to get delivery on-time, whereas that of the wholesaler / retailer is to provide delivery without any complaint in order to retain the customer. In the framework of competitive supply chain market, necessary accurate Shipping load forecasting tools are required. With the focus of improving prediction accuracy, this case study presents use of Time-series models, multiplicative decomposition model (MDM) and smoothening techniques, on shipping load demand of Arora-Ludhiana-Handlooms during festive seasons for short-term forecasting.

Contribution of ordinal variables to short-term global solar irradiation forecasting for sites with low variabilities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kacem Gairaa ◽  
Cyril Voyant ◽  
Gilles Notton ◽  
Saïd Benkaciali ◽  
Mawloud Guermoui
Keyword(s):  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Ordinal Variables ◽  
Global Solar Irradiation
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