The Study on Market Investment Decision-Making Using Real Options Theory

2012 ◽  
pp. 543-549
Author(s):  
Bin Xu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Options Theory

Photovoltaic Power Generation Investment Decision-Making Framework Based on Real Options Theory

2013 ◽  
Vol 392 ◽  
pp. 480-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuo Fang ◽  
Jun Liu ◽  
Min Liu ◽  
Zhi Zhang ◽  
Yan Hong Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
Photovoltaic Power ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Framework ◽  
Options Theory

In the new electricity market environment, PV project investment faces more investment risks. For photovoltaic power generation characteristics of the project and with the integrated current research, we put forward the investment decision-making framework based on real option theory; we enrich and develop the applications of real options theory about investment decisions in the electricity, there are certain theoretical and practical significances.

Real Options Analysis in Strategic Information Technology Adoption

2011 ◽  
pp. 3199-3204
Author(s):  
Xiaotong Li
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Technology Adoption ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Real World ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Planning ◽  
It Investment ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
The Real ◽  
Options Theory

Many information resource managers have learned to be proactive in today’s highly competitive business environment. However, limited financial resources and many uncertainties require them to maximize their shareholders’ equity while controlling the risks incurred at an acceptable level. As the unprecedented development in information technology continuously produces great opportunities that are usually associated with significant uncertainties, technology adoption and planning become more and more crucial to companies in the information era. In this study, we attempt to evaluate IT investment opportunities from a new perspective, namely, the real options theory. Its advantage over other capital budgeting methods like static discounted cash flow analysis has been widely recognized in analyzing the strategic investment decision under uncertainties (Amram & Kulatilaka, 1999; Luehrman, 1998a, 1998b). Smith and McCardle (1998, 1999) further show that option pricing approach can be integrated into standard decision analysis framework to get the best of the both worlds. In fact, some previous IS researches have recognized the fact that many IT investment projects in the uncertain world possess some option-like characteristics (Clemsons, 1991; Dos Santos, 1991; Kumar, 1996). Recently, Benaroth and Kauffman (1999) and Taudes, Feurstein and Mild (2000) have applied the real options theory to real-world business cases and evaluated this approach’s merits as a tool for IT investment planning. As all real options models inevitably depend on some specific assumptions, their appropriateness should be scrutinized under different scenarios. This study aims to provide a framework that will help IS researchers to better understand the real options models and to apply them more rigorously in IT investment evaluation. As the technology changes, the basic economic principles underlying the real options theory do not change. We do need to integrate the IT dimension into the real options based investment decision-making process. Using electronic brokerage’s investment decision in wireless technology as a real-world example, we show the importance of adopting appropriate real options models in IT investment planning. By specifically focusing on the uncertainties caused by IT innovation and competition, our study also gives some intriguing results about the dynamics between IT adoption and the technology standard setting process.

Maintenance Decisions for Offshore Structures Using Real Options Theory

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni ◽  
Sandra Santa-Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Maintenance Decisions ◽  
Options Theory

Real Options methods are currently used to assess investment projects considering: (1) the decision options that one can have along the development of the project, such as to expand it, or reduce it, or to abandon it, or to differ it, and (2) the uncertainty in some financial variables for the assessment of the economic investment. In these two regards, Real Options methods are superior to the traditional Net Present Value method. The purpose of the present paper is to establish the basis for Real Options modeling for decision making on design, inspection, maintenance, and decommissioning of offshore structures. The use of Real Options theory is sought in order to account for: (1) uncertainties in the financial variables involved in risk assessment based on expected costs, such as the economic consequences due to failure of a system; and (2) uncertainties associated with the resistance and loading of the structure for reliability assessment. An application of Real Options Theory is given in the paper for decision making on maintenance for an offshore structure. Cash flow from oil revenue is modeled as a stochastic process. Preventive and corrective maintenance is analyzed as a critical situation where the decision maker has the option to pay the costs of maintenance in order to obtain a benefit. Expressions are derived for the estimation of the value of the maintenance option; they are based on the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation for the evaluation of financial options. It is shown that the value of such project is equal to the sum of the net cash flow of the project (as with a Net Present Value evaluation) plus the value of the maintenance option. Projects with one and two decision times along the life of the structure are formulated and analyzed. Closed form solutions are obtained for such cases. An example is given in order to illustrate the differences between maintenance decisions using the Net Present Value and the Real Options method.

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