Decision Theory and Rules of Thumb

2013 ◽  
pp. 75-96
Author(s):  
Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory ◽  
Rules Of Thumb

Representation, abstraction, and simple-minded sophisticates

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Dayan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory ◽  
Predictive Coding ◽  
Bayesian Decision Theory ◽  
Bayesian Decision ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Model Free

Abstract Bayesian decision theory provides a simple formal elucidation of some of the ways that representation and representational abstraction are involved with, and exploit, both prediction and its rather distant cousin, predictive coding. Both model-free and model-based methods are involved.

Giving advice: Decision theory perspectives on sexual assault.

1992 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 577-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baruch Fischhoff
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Assault ◽  
Decision Theory

Rational Uses of Decision Theory

PsycCRITIQUES ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 54 (42) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordon Pitz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory

The Measurement of Performance in Probabilistic Diagnosis IV. Utility Considerations in Therapeutics and Prognostics

1981 ◽  
Vol 20 (02) ◽  
pp. 80-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. F. Habbema ◽  
J. Hilden
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory ◽  
Figure Of Merit ◽  
Acute Abdominal Pain ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Patient Benefit ◽  
Evaluation Approach ◽  
Average Loss ◽  
Actual Decision ◽  
Probabilistic Diagnosis

It is argued that it is preferable to evaluate probabilistic diagnosis systems in terms of utility (patient benefit) or loss (negative benefit). We have adopted the provisional strategy of scoring performance as if the system were the actual decision-maker (not just an aid to him) and argue that a rational figure of merit is given by the average loss which patients would incur by having the system decide on treatment, the treatment being selected according to the minimum expected loss principle of decision theory.A similar approach is taken to the problem of evaluating probabilistic prognoses, but the fundamental differences between treatment selection skill and prognostic skill and their implications for the assessment of such skills are stressed. The necessary elements of decision theory are explained by means of simple examples mainly taken from the acute abdomen, and the proposed evaluation tools are applied to Acute Abdominal Pain data analysed in our previous papers by other (not decision-theoretic) means. The main difficulty of the decision theory approach, viz. that of obtaining good medical utility values upon which the analysis can be based, receives due attention, and the evaluation approach is extended to cover more realistic situations in which utility or loss values vary from patient to patient.

The Process of Medical Diagnosis: Routes of Mathematical Investigations

1978 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Tautu ◽  
G. Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory ◽  
Medical Diagnosis ◽  
Pattern Analysis ◽  
Logical Probability ◽  
Inquiry Process ◽  
Fuzzy Subsets

This paper is an analysis of the most important mathematical aspects of medical diagnosis: logical probability, rationality and decision theory, gambling models, pattern analysis, hazy and fuzzy subsets theory and, finally, the stochastic inquiry process.

DECISION THEORY IN CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY (FUZZY DECISION)

1995 ◽  
Vol 01 (00) ◽  
Author(s):  
L.L. Lazzari ◽  
E.A. Machado ◽  
R.H. Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Decision

Sand Free Production Success Through Proven Technology Enabler from An Untapped Heterogeneous Reservoir Zone Utilizing Gravel Pack Replacement Methodology

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Anggoro
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Erosion Resistance ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Screen Design ◽  
Sand Control ◽  
Rules Of Thumb ◽  
Production Success ◽  
Control Technologies ◽  
Gravel Pack

The Belida field is an offshore field located in Block B of Indonesia’s South Natuna Sea. This field was discovered in 1989. Both oil and gas bearing reservoirs are present in the Belida field in the Miocene Arang, Udang and Intra Barat Formations. Within the middle Arang Formation, there are three gas pay zones informally referred to as Beta, Gamma and Delta. These sand zones are thin pay zones which need to be carefully planned and economically exploited. Due to the nature of the reservoir, sand production is a challenge and requires downhole sand control. A key challenge for sand control equipment in this application is erosion resistance without inhibiting productivity as high gas rates and associated high flow velocity is expected from the zones, which is known to have caused sand control failure. To help achieve a cost-effective and easily planned deployment solution to produce hydrocarbons, a rigless deployment is the preferred method to deploy downhole sand control. PSD analysis from the reservoir zone suggested from ‘Industry Rules of Thumb’ a conventional gravel pack deployment as a means of downhole sand control. However, based on review of newer globally proven sand control technologies since adoption of these ‘Industry Rules of Thumb’, a cost-effective solution could be considered and implemented utilizing Ceramic Sand Screen technology. This paper will discuss the successful application at Block B, Natuna Sea using Ceramic Sand Screens as a rigless intervention solution addressing the erosion / hot spotting challenges in these high rate production zones. The erosion resistance of the Ceramic Sand Screen design allows a deployment methodology directly adjacent to the perforated interval to resist against premature loss of sand control. The robust ceramic screen design gave the flexibility required to develop a cost-effective lower completion deployment methodology both from a challenging make up in the well due to a restrictive lubricator length to the tractor conveyancing in the well to land out at the desired set depth covering the producing zone. The paper will overview the success of multi-service and product supply co-operation adopting technology enablers to challenge ‘Industry Rules of Thumb’ replaced by rigless reasoning as a standard well intervention downhole sand control solution where Medco E&P Natuna Ltd. (Medco E&P) faces sand control challenges in their high deviation, sidetracked well stock. The paper draws final attention to the hydrocarbon performance gain resulting due to the ability for choke free production to allow drawing down the well at higher rates than initially expected from this zone.

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